Buffalo Bumble Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 36 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Wpc going with 1.5"-2" locally as it stands now.. Really hope we get something out of this in BUF area. Hardly anything yesterday. Just doesn’t want to rain here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Pretty unusual to see a 988mb low passing by to our NW this time of year (Monday storm system). Almost looks wind advisory worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 14 hours ago, cny rider said: Sweet! We hoped to come out for the show but I am stuck at work this weekend. Be glad you didn’t. After a 2 hour delay they tried to start to the show after the fog layer finally burnt off but the cloud deck was still only around 1000’ over the harbor so the blue angels and the other stunt planes were a no go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Decent cell rolling through Oswego county, on the northern extent here, few rumbles of thunder and some decent lightning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 We don't have to ever worry about a real drought here. The west coast is just entering its dry season. Going to get insanely ugly in a few weeks out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 Erie and Ontario protect us from any real long time drought. When the air cools down and our rainy season starts in fall it cures any drought we may have had in summer. Out west they don't have that luxury. It can be dry there for years on end. That literally is impossible in this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 Some really cold air for this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 6 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Pretty unusual to see a 988mb low passing by to our NW this time of year (Monday storm system). Almost looks wind advisory worthy. Looks like a decent squall line chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Erie and Ontario protect us from any real long time drought. When the air cools down and our rainy season starts in fall it cures any drought we may have had in summer. Out west they don't have that luxury. It can be dry there for years on end. That literally is impossible in this forum. Never say never…. However, I do agree that it does seem like the “droughts” in my limited snapshot of 35 years here are really just across the span of a season or two. The idea of a multi-year drought is truly scary, but at least we (humans as a whole) now have the ability to just move to a new area, which seems like it may become necessary for many in the SW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 11 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Be glad you didn’t. After a 2 hour delay they tried to start to the show after the fog layer finally burnt off but the cloud deck was still only around 1000’ over the harbor so the blue angels and the other stunt planes were a no go. Wow that would have sucked. Hope they have better conditions today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 20 minutes ago, winter_rules said: Never say never…. However, I do agree that it does seem like the “droughts” in my limited snapshot of 35 years here are really just across the span of a season or two. The idea of a multi-year drought is truly scary, but at least we (humans as a whole) now have the ability to just move to a new area, which seems like it may become necessary for many in the SW. The SW and to an extent the intermountain west does have the monsoon season coming up to maybe provide some relief. Hopefully it’s a robust one this year. That’s a pretty cool weather phenomenon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Happy Father's Day to all you dads out there. Being a dad has brought me many new perspectives on life and how important it is to be humble and a servant to others. Tomorrow's potential seems pretty solid with strong dynamics. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Some SR guidance for Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Hrrr would be a nice soaking for most.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 The more significant severe weather risk is for Monday afternoon through early evening. It looks like most of the area will be in the warm sector dry slot Monday morning, but then storms will develop along a pre-frontal trough around mid- day and move west to east across the area. There`s a significant risk for bowing segments as these storms, with embedded supercells and even isolated tornados possible based on the strong wind shear which will be in place. The area of greatest concern is roughly east of a Jamestown to Rochester to Watertown line since trough will move through later in the day when there`s more instability in place. Lake shadowing may also lower (but not eliminate) the risk for strong thunderstorms across the Niagara Frontier. PWATs will also increase to around 2 inches, with dew points approaching 70F. This will make it feel very moist and uncomfortable, and also will pose the risk for heavy rainfall in any thunderstorms. Storms should be moving, which will limit the potential flooding, but flash ponding is a threat with flooding possible if any training occurs. Greatest rainfall amount are expected east of Lake Ontario where the system will be moving a bit slower. Winds will also be gusty outside of the thunderstorms. NAM BUFKIT shows well aligned flow, with the potential for gusts to 50 mph across the Niagara Frontier on Monday. Peak gusts will depend on how much clearing occurs during the day since the sunshine would allow for better mixing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Might see some nice nocturnal storms with the warm front tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Pretty hot out today, 83° for the high but with RH at 50% and DPs 60°, doesn't feel to bad . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 1 hour ago, vortmax said: Might see some nice nocturnal storms with the warm front tonight. Yeah depending on your model of choice the 2am-7am time frame look like there could be a good area of storms rolling across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 Hit 85 here, had the family over for a pool day and BBQ. Prime time summer out right now. Was even able to see the planes flying over the harbor from my backyard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 NAM has some really impressive stuff hitting tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Some intense storms along that soon to be warm front in MI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 Some decent storms moving up from Erie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Disgusting out lol Still 70° at almost midnight, RH up to 80%.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Beautiful out lol Still 70° at almost midnight, RH up to 80%.. fixed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 Here we go! * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Chautauqua County in western New York... * Until 1215 AM EDT.. * At 1123 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near North East, or 15 miles east of Erie, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 Warning just issued. Major tornado happening right now in Chicago suburbs with debris up to 15k feet BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1217 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Cattaraugus County in western New York... Southwestern Erie County in western New York... Northeastern Chautauqua County in western New York... * Until 100 AM EDT.. * At 1216 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Dunkirk, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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