BuffaloWeather Posted June 17, 2021 Author Share Posted June 17, 2021 3KM keeps everything SE of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Can I see my 3rd consecutive sub 70° Max in a row? Guess I'll have to wait and see lol Forecast high was 72°, so far we have maxed out at 68.5° but has since dropped a couple degrees.. Obviously still plenty of time to warm...Another picture perfect day.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 3k and 12k for Friday/Saturday fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Snow on gfs in July in Central canada.cool patter hu? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Fairly complicated scenario setting up for the first part of the new work week with potential for some beneficial rains, but also the possibility for some stronger storms. One thing that looks more certain at this time is that any remnants/associated moisture from a tropical system moving northeast from the Gulf Coast should remain south of the area. A large upper trough will dig across the upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes on Monday, while strengthening main surface low pressure pivots northeast into James Bay. A strong trailing cold front will approach from the west on Monday. Deep southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned features will pump GOMEX moisture northeast across the area. This combined with very warm/humid airmass and fairly strong mid/upper level dynamics in place should lead to the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms to break out across the area by Monday afternoon, some of which could be on the stronger side. High PWATS will mean the potential for locally heavy rainfall as well. At the same time, upper jet will be strengthening over the upper Great Lakes aiding in the development of low pressure on the cold front under the right entrance region of the upper jet. This will likely slow the eastward progression of the surface boundary, allowing for the potential for showers and storms to linger into Monday night. At this point appears cold front will slowly cross the area sometime later Monday night into Tuesday as surface low pressure rides northeast along the boundary. Combined with plentiful moisture still in place and right entrance region of the upper jet overhead, this would continue to support the likelihood of showers right into the day on Tuesday, with lessening chances for thunder as the day progresses owed to instability getting shoved east of the area with the boundary. Main upper trough axis crosses the area Tuesday night with the chance for a few lingering showers. A much cooler and drier airmass is then set to move into our area for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds across the area from the west. Upper troughing will remain overhead which will keep the cooler air locked in over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Despite any diurnal instability that develops with the cool airmass overhead, limited moisture will preclude much in the way of any shower development either day, with much of the time remaining dry. Otherwise, above normal temperatures and high humidity levels on Monday will trend downward, with below average temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday and much more comfortable humidity levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Monday we "sizzle" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Tuesday is the transition day as we probably max out overnight.. Front through the area around 12z according to the Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 16 hours ago, tim123 said: Snow on gfs in July in Central canada.cool patter hu? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Doesn't look like Death Valley got below 100 for a low temp. Crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: Doesn't look like Death Valley got below 100 for a low temp. Crazy. The entire southwest will be considered death valley in about 20 years. Barstow broke the record by 7 degrees....literally insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Pretty nice soaking on the 0z euro, majority of this is the Monday/Tues timeframe, seems the WPC is leaning that way with the enhanced precipitation east of Ontario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Starting to get close to Moderate drought once again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Starting to get close to Moderate drought once again.. That looks about right according to my grass... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Satellite imagery showing an expansive area of convective debris clouds moving into Western NY. Clouds will continue to increase from west to east through midday. While the thickening debris clouds will yield some showers...dry air blow H7 will retard the advance and amount of pcpn. Meanwhile...the threat for thunderstorms has mainly shifted to the later parts of the afternoon and evening. A complex convective forecast will evolve through tonight, with the timing and placement of better chances of showers and thunderstorms tied to subtle convectively manipulated shortwaves and vorticity maxima. Synoptically, a mid level trough will move from northwest Ontario today to western Quebec by late tonight, with an associated upper level jet streak moving from the central Great Lakes today to the Ottawa Valley by tonight. A series of more subtle and convectively augmented shortwaves downstream of the synoptic trough will move east across the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes within a plume of deep moisture, with PWAT exceeding 1.5" later today through tonight. Following the first round of rain chances, there should be a break for several hours this afternoon across Western NY, and late afternoon/early evening east of Lake Ontario. The clouds and showers moving through during the day will interfere with destabilization, only allowing for relatively modest instability to develop. Another subtle mid level trough will reach the eastern Great Lakes during the evening, supporting another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms. The chances for thunder should be higher with this second batch, with a more favorable thermodynamic environment in place. The showers and scattered storms will move east overnight, with rain chances gradually diminishing from west to east as the trough axis moves into eastern NY. The highest severe weather chances today and tonight will be found southwest of our region across the Ohio Valley, where the eastern extent of an Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) plume will contribute to strong destabilization to the south of a composite outflow boundary from the morning convection. Lack of instability will be the main limiting factor across Western and Central NY. If enough instability develops, moderate effective shear may result in a few storms with strong wind gusts during the evening across Western NY, but this risk appears low at this time. Heavy downpours will occur with any storms that develop as PWAT values exceed 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Gfs with some much needed relief over the next couple weeks but we know how fast this can change lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 Yeah I'll pass on that, getting enough rain today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 So have my hikes planned for next week. Doing Sawteeth/Blake/Colvin on Thursday and then Saddleback/Basin/Haystack next weekend. Will put me at 30 peaks. Each hike is around 20 miles. Forecast for Thurs looks nice so far. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Some showers starting to move into the area, maxed out earlier at 78°, currently 70° and overcast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Might squeak out some clearing before sunset... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Heading to Wyoming and Colorado tomorrow for 10 days. Quite the forecast where I may be able to see snow and 100 degree temps all in the same week. Planning on going up into the snowy mountains of Wyoming on Monday where high temps look to be around 50 with snow showers in the morning with temps in the 30s. Then have a wedding in Denver on Thursday where the high is 99 degrees. Should be a fun time with lots of weather extremes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 NWS asleep at the wheel in Ohio. That’s a damn tornado! Upgrade that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: NWS asleep at the wheel in Ohio. That’s a damn tornado! Upgrade that! Gotta be some gorilla hail in that thing. Never see such big pink blobs like that on the NWS radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 51 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: NWS asleep at the wheel in Ohio. That’s a damn tornado! Upgrade that! They must have listened to you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 41 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Gotta be some gorilla hail in that thing. Never see such big pink blobs like that on the NWS radar. At 847 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wilmington, moving southeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Been fun watching them buzz around town this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 7 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Been fun watching them buzz around town this week. Sweet! We hoped to come out for the show but I am stuck at work this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 19, 2021 Author Share Posted June 19, 2021 June temps. Next 3 days will feature above normal temps before a brief cool down and then another above average time for next weekend. BUF- +4.4 ROC- +2.9 WAT- +3.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 We picked up 0.11" of showers last night.. Euro still showing a decent soaking Monday/Tuesday albeit much more scattered then previous runs... Currently 70" and sticky, DP 66° and RH 86%, mix of sun and clouds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Wpc going with 1.5"-2" locally as it stands now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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