CoolHandMike Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Using the GRLevel3 app/prog and the TPHL radar site. The WPIX site is down but there are others in the area... Thanks. I've got Radarscope on PC but it doesn't show the kind of resolution/coverage/smoothing that GRL3 appears to. I might have to look into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Just now, CoolHandMike said: Thanks. I've got Radarscope on PC but it doesn't show the kind of resolution/coverage/smoothing that GRL3 appears to. I might have to look into that. It's pretty solid. I meant KDIX above not WPIX...screw up on my part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: Thanks. I've got Radarscope on PC but it doesn't show the kind of resolution/coverage/smoothing that GRL3 appears to. I might have to look into that. HurricaneAgnes has been using GRLevel3 longer than myself so most likely knows more about the ins/outs of the program than myself... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Another point, anything near an inch tonight will cause flooding again on the Little Lehigh Creek. Why is there no flash flood watch issued? A radar out of NJ is not the only tool in the tool chest for forecasting possible flooding. Look at the amount of precip recorded each hourover the last 24 hours on Thursday- Fridays storm at both airports. What about the USGS digital stream gauges? They do exist. A flood advisory should have been issued after 12 hours of continuous rains. Two + inch rains floods creeks. That is a no brainer. Spring Creek Rd was closed all day in Lower Macungie Township from flooding. I guess the Lehigh Valley is not in the Mt. Holly area. Forecasters are too worried about discussing potential riptides to mention the two- three inches of rain that fell across the Lehigh Valley/ Quakertown area on Thursday- Friday in their weather discussion. There is almost a million people that live in that particular forecast area. Priorities need to be reviewed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 11 hours ago, Albedoman said: Another point, anything near an inch tonight will cause flooding again on the Little Lehigh Creek. Why is there no flash flood watch issued? A radar out of NJ is not the only tool in the tool chest for forecasting possible flooding. Look at the amount of precip recorded each hourover the last 24 hours on Thursday- Fridays storm at both airports. What about the USGS digital stream gauges? They do exist. A flood advisory should have been issued after 12 hours of continuous rains. Two + inch rains floods creeks. That is a no brainer. Spring Creek Rd was closed all day in Lower Macungie Township from flooding. I guess the Lehigh Valley is not in the Mt. Holly area. Forecasters are too worried about discussing potential riptides to mention the two- three inches of rain that fell across the Lehigh Valley/ Quakertown area on Thursday- Friday in their weather discussion. There is almost a million people that live in that particular forecast area. Priorities need to be reviewed. "tHiS iS wHy No ReD tAgGeRs PoSt HeRe" Your post is spot on though. Really a poor showing by mt holly on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 23 minutes ago, The Iceman said: "tHiS iS wHy No ReD tAgGeRs PoSt HeRe" Your post is spot on though. Really a poor showing by mt holly on Friday. I never thought about that? Hmmm... Either way, looking forward to the possibility of some late night/after midnight/early morning storms. Something about late night storms which is pretty cool. Everyone is asleep, quiet then in the distance you hear the rumble of thunder with storms moving in... 74F /DP 64F with a decent breeze, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I never thought about that? Hmmm... Either way, looking forward to the possibility of some late night/after midnight/early morning storms. Something about late night storms which is pretty cool. Everyone is asleep, quiet then in the distance you hear the rumble of thunder with storms moving in... 74F /DP 64F with a decent breeze, not bad. Pretty interesting timing differences in the meso models for tonight. They all have a complex of storms coming though at some point. The WRF - ARW suite, the RGEM, HRRR and HRDPS have a complex coming through this evening around 00z - 03z time frame while the NAM suite and FV3(new NAM in beta right now) all have the complex coming through late night in the 03z - 06z time frame. I like the night time storms as well. I always enjoy how you get the lightning flashes well in advance and well after the storm. Feels like it always lingers longer because of that. Some meso models also show some pop up cells this afternoon around 95 and progressing east into NJ, will be interesting to see if that comes to fruition with the cloud cover in place this morning. Doesn't seem like too much instability in place yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: Pretty interesting timing differences in the meso models for tonight. They all have a complex of storms coming though at some point. The WRF - ARW suite, the RGEM, HRRR and HRDPS have a complex coming through this evening around 00z - 03z time frame while the NAM suite and FV3(new NAM in beta right now) all have the complex coming through late night in the 03z - 06z time frame. I like the night time storms as well. I always enjoy how you get the lightning flashes well in advance and well after the storm. Feels like it always lingers longer because of that. Some meso models also show some pop up cells this afternoon around 95 and progressing east into NJ, will be interesting to see if that comes to fruition with the cloud cover in place this morning. Doesn't seem like too much instability in place yet. Same...seemed to get late night/ overnight storms more when I was younger? Sun's out, temps and DPs rising, hopefully this will create a nice environment for storms at some point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Here comes SPC - Quote Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 205 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC001-011-017-025-029-037-041-043-045-055-067-071-075-077-079- 081-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-113-119-133-150100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0270.210614T1805Z-210615T0100Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BERKS BUCKS CARBON CHESTER COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE FRANKLIN JUNIATA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE LYCOMING MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN UNION YORK $$ Quote Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 205 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJC005-007-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-150100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0270.210614T1805Z-210615T0100Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN $$ Quote Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 205 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DEC003-150100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0270.210614T1805Z-210615T0100Z/ DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE $$ Currently a muggy 81 with dp 69 and mostly cloudy. ETA - The TS Warning is intriguing. I haven't had chance to see what that is about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 ^ Heard about this, this morning. Not that it will have any impact but may offer insight to this upcoming season... 82F / DP 66F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: ^ Heard about this, this morning. Not that it will have any impact but may offer insight to this upcoming season... 82F / DP 66F The trough here in the east will probably carry that away from the coast unless something happens and it gets cut off from the flow. We got a long season to go although I don't expect it to eclipse last year. CPC is forecasting ENSO neutral at least through the summer (where last year we were in La Niña) - Quote EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 10 June 2021 ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer (78% chance for the June-August season) and fall (50% chance for the September-November season). ENSO-neutral conditions continued during May, with near-average sea surface temperatures observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last week, the Niño indices were all at -0.2°C, except for the Niño-1+2 index, which was -0.4°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperature anomalies remained positive but decreased slightly [Fig. 3] due to the weakening of above-average subsurface temperatures around the thermocline in the central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind anomalies extended across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. At the Date Line, tropical convection was mostly near average, and enhanced rainfall was evident over the western Pacific Ocean [Fig. 5]. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions. A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the fall 2021 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus generally agrees with this model outlook, although lower probabilities are assigned to El Niño during this period (remaining less than 10%). By the late fall and winter, La Niña chances increase to near 50%, reflecting the historical tendency for a second winter of La Niña following the first, and also the predictions from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. However, these cooler conditions are predicted to exist for a short duration (3 overlapping seasons) and these predictions are still over 6 months into the future. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer (78% chance for the June-August season) and fall (50% chance for the September-November season; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 July 2021. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected]. Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Scattered convection this afternoon looks like a fail but the convective line to our west looks pretty good despite being in a less than ideal environment. Should intensify as it comes off the plateau into better instability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Hear some distant thunder coming from this batch up around rt. 30/202: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Thunderstorm Warning up over my area. My high actually hit 85 today (low was 65). Currently 70 with dp 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 21 hours ago, Albedoman said: Another point, anything near an inch tonight will cause flooding again on the Little Lehigh Creek. Why is there no flash flood watch issued? A radar out of NJ is not the only tool in the tool chest for forecasting possible flooding. Look at the amount of precip recorded each hourover the last 24 hours on Thursday- Fridays storm at both airports. What about the USGS digital stream gauges? They do exist. A flood advisory should have been issued after 12 hours of continuous rains. Two + inch rains floods creeks. That is a no brainer. Spring Creek Rd was closed all day in Lower Macungie Township from flooding. I guess the Lehigh Valley is not in the Mt. Holly area. Forecasters are too worried about discussing potential riptides to mention the two- three inches of rain that fell across the Lehigh Valley/ Quakertown area on Thursday- Friday in their weather discussion. There is almost a million people that live in that particular forecast area. Priorities need to be reviewed. Ummm, okay. Some of your post is just simply wrong, we care about our entire forecast area. Perhaps reports of flooding were not received at the office. Not to say that this as an excuse (I was not working Friday, so not sure what happened), but our KDIX radar was taken offline starting last Friday for scheduled work on the dome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 9 hours ago, The Iceman said: Your post is spot on though. Really a poor showing by mt holly on Friday. Care to explain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Fireworks going over me! Getting rain and am up to 0.05" at post time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Currently have a decent storm moving thru, pouring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Under a red. Getting almost 2.5"/hr rates. Up to 0.44" at post time. Temp down to 67. ETA - Holy crap! now almost 5"/hr gully washer! Got 0.95" in the bucket at edit time (8:48 pm). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Storm boiled up before my eyes, literally. A real attention getter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Yikes! I'm up to 1.10" and almost 5.5"/hr. I can hear it over the sound of my AC, air purifiers, and my radio playing some music. Up to 1.15". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 This will probably throw the tiny creek tributaries (like Cresheim Creek that feeds into the Wissahickon) right out of their banks in the lower lying areas. I *know* those streets are probably flooding right now. It seems to be a fast mover though. Spigot has cut off as that heavy band has moved past me now. Currently at 1.20". Getting a lot of lightning although not much thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 This is a nice looking storm. Tons of lightning. Seems to even be some broad rotation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Quite a non event for my area....maybe a shower? 67F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Just now, Birds~69 said: Quite a non event for my area....maybe a shower? 67F Yep. Turned into a big turd here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Got 0.35" of rain and a decent amount lightning here, lost power for about a half a minute. Now it's very comfortable out, and a good lightning bug show as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Frankford Creek went out of its banks according to a report. Rose 5.5ft in 24 minutes. Currently 66 here with dp 64 and cloudy. Looks like another weaker line to the west but am not sure if that holds together or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 2 hours ago, MGorse said: Care to explain? Who is the gaucho amigo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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