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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2021 OBS Thread


JTA66
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14 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Could be a weak tropical development just east of Delaware 

LOL and a single to 1st! :lol:

Now if that is still there when Ida remnants get here, then it might be a Henri redux.... :yikes:

As a sidenote, Ida has been upgraded to a Cat 4 -

Quote
733 
WTNT64 KNHC 290803
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
300 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE 
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 89.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Pasch

two_atl_0d0-sat-157am-08292021.png

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My low of 66 yesterday ended up happening just after 8:30 pm last night The air behind that front definitely continues to filter in. I also had some blow-by rain that added another 0.01" of rain last evening for a total of 1.97" for yesterday (and 11.02" for the month of August).

It's currently 68 with stratus and some fog and a dp of 64.

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2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

LOL and a single to 1st! :lol:

Now if that is still there when Ida remnants get here, then it might be a Henri redux.... :yikes:

As a sidenote, Ida has been upgraded to a Cat 4 -

two_atl_0d0-sat-157am-08292021.png

Ida 935 mb 150 mph….models showing a lot of rain here Wednesday to Thursday as it combines with an upper air low and stalled cold front quite a potential problem for our area.

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1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Ida 935 mb 150 mph….models showing a lot of rain here Wednesday to Thursday as it combines with an upper air low and stalled cold front quite a potential problem for our area.

Quote
000
WTNT34 KNHC 291157
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Special Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING
THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 89.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

:(

093339_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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13 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Oh wow. That'll be insane if it comes to fruition. 

Yeah.  I know some spots were in rain holes due to the scattered nature of the pop-ups the past couple days, but with the antecedent Henri rainfall and any place where pop-ups were slow-moving (or not moving and just rained themselves out), another couple inches will just send the creeks and even some of the larger rivers into overdrive.  One difference though is that we won't have a Full Moon at the time of approach.  The next New Moon is September 6th when this should be long gone.

But depending on where the center tracks, parts of the CWA may end up on the right front quadrant.

ETA - I went on and started a thread on it.

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11 hours ago, CoolHandMike said:

Oh wow. That'll be insane if it comes to fruition. 

Been in and out most of the day but caught the early morning news and CBS3 had 6.16" for your area (Reading) from the reminisce of Ida. (Wed/Thurs) Looks like N and W of Philly will be the heaviest of precip.

Some stuff around state college moving E. This is minor compared to what's happening down south...

sc.jpg

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Work got cut short today so I'm back home. Drove through lots of misty fog going south through Exton around 5am. On my way back around 7, the sun broke through right as I got on the turnpike north of Exton but it then clouded up pretty quick as I got towards Reading. Kinda hoping it stays this way all day.

image.png.3c14feb8576ea40615e2ed104feab31c.png

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

When the euro was good I would have been concerned. 

Consensus is falling in the 2-3" range for total rain this evening through Thursday morning.

 

 

Dr. No only lives up to his reputation for snow events.

I haven't been paying much attention, but check out the rains breaking out in the Ohio Valley back toward IL with Ida still in MS. Was that forecasted?

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3 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Dr. No only lives up to his reputation for snow events.

I haven't been paying much attention, but check out the rains braking out in the Ohio Valley back toward IL with Ida still in MS. Was that forecasted?

It's probably related to the little Low associated with a cold front that will eventually make contact with Ida to shunt moisture this way.

nws-current-surface-341pm-radsfcus_exp_new-08302021.gif

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