E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2021 OBS Thread

[JTA66]

16 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I recall last week the Phillies had rain delays on 2 consecutive evenings - 8/10 & 8/11 (one of my BIL's was at the first game).  Sometimes you guys get the northern fringe of the storms that come through northern MD and Wilmington, DE.  Whenever I have been running either of my doppler programs (GR2Analyst or GRLevel3), I don't recall seeing mpings or other spotter reports from down there though outside of the airport (KPHL), which is the official reading for down there too.

I attached a radar image (with 3 overlapping severe thunderstorm warnings) over S. Philly on 8/10 just after 8:30 pm & on the look on 8/11, about 7:50 pm.

 

I believe it's one of those two rain delays that went on to form Henri. You're welcome, New England!

[21chuck]

35 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Mt. Holly reports what is submitted via CoCoRaHS here - https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXLCOPHI&wfo=phi

and any Local Storm Reports here (if/when people submit them) - https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXLSRPHI&wfo=phi

and Public Information Statements here (if/when people are submitting them) - https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi

At the moment, the CoCoRaHS reports seem to be the most complete, although there are only a handful of Philly reports.

I recall last week the Phillies had rain delays on 2 consecutive evenings - 8/10 & 8/11 (one of my BIL's was at the first game).  Sometimes you guys get the northern fringe of the storms that come through northern MD and Wilmington, DE.  Whenever I have been running either of my doppler programs (GR2Analyst or GRLevel3), I don't recall seeing mpings or other spotter reports from down there though outside of the airport (KPHL), which is the official reading for down there too.

I attached a radar image (with 3 overlapping severe thunderstorm warnings) over S. Philly on 8/10 just after 8:30 pm & on the look on 8/11, about 7:50 pm.

 

Thanks so much for the info! Maybe I am a bit of pessimist. Somehow I can't even really remember that rain from the 10th and 11th... I do recall watching cells split and reform in such a way that a mile or two seemed to make all the difference (I am closer to CC)

[Hurricane Agnes]

Had heard on KYW that  Mt. Holly confirmed 2 tornadoes and then saw this -

So far my high today has been 89 and the sun has mostly been out today, although the dews continue to be moderately steamy.  Currently partly sunny and 88 with dp 73.

[CoolHandMike]

1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Had heard on KYW that  Mt. Holly confirmed 2 tornadoes and then saw this -

So far my high today has been 89 and the sun has mostly been out today, although the dews continue to be moderately steamy.  Currently partly sunny and 88 with dp 73.

I was checking the base velocities on radar for as long as I could last night but I didn't see anything spinning to my northwest, though I thought I could maybe see some larger scale rotation to my SW at one point. Nothing to clue me in on any tornado threat. We're right in the middle of distant radar coverage so maybe they aren't as good at detecting velocity at those distances. I dunno. I'd sure love to see a loop  that shows it though.

[Hurricane Agnes]

2 hours ago, CoolHandMike said:

I was checking the base velocities on radar for as long as I could last night but I didn't see anything spinning to my northwest, though I thought I could maybe see some larger scale rotation to my SW at one point. Nothing to clue me in on any tornado threat. We're right in the middle of distant radar coverage so maybe they aren't as good at detecting velocity at those distances. I dunno. I'd sure love to see a loop  that shows it though.

I was fruitlessly trying to find something too but neither seemed to have obvious rotation.  It's possible that due to the moisture laden environment since Fred had come from the tropics, the rain component in the returns might have obscured those details (I recall reading somewhere noting that could happen where there could be a tornado but it's hard to make out on radar due to the precipitation intensity).

Well I'll be keeping an eye out for this -

Right now as a TS, it's pretty compact but once it hits that bathwater and gulf stream, it will be interesting to see what it does if/when it strengthens to a hurricane.

89 ended up being my high today and it is currently partly sunny and 84 with dp 72.

[Newman]

6 hours ago, CoolHandMike said:

I was checking the base velocities on radar for as long as I could last night but I didn't see anything spinning to my northwest, though I thought I could maybe see some larger scale rotation to my SW at one point. Nothing to clue me in on any tornado threat. We're right in the middle of distant radar coverage so maybe they aren't as good at detecting velocity at those distances. I dunno. I'd sure love to see a loop  that shows it though.

Bingo, Berks county is in the infamous radar hole. There's been talks here at Millersville University to putting in a radar to serve the local counties for this reason. Regardless, the radar beams would not have been able to pick up on the low-level rotation when the beams shoot well above it.

[mattinpa]

Well even I got into the emergency alert action, and I wasn’t in the tornado path. It was just a TV test but scared me for a minute.

 

[KamuSnow]

11 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Seems like you're in a relative screw zone with rainfall in SE PA. I'm over 5" on the month now with many places near me also above 4". Delaware county has been in a rain hole this month.

Yes it has, at least down this way. Not worried about it now, July was wet enough, and one or two heavy storms could get us back close to normal. In the meantime maybe we'll have some lower humidity in a week or so, although today wasn't too bad, partly due to the breeze.

[Hurricane Agnes]

On 8/18/2021 at 8:48 AM, Newman said:

Posting this not because I believe it, but because it's funny and deep down we're all weenies... HMON captures future Hurricane Henri into the coast. The GFS is similar, only it captures it into SNE. Same with the UKMET. Whether or not the Philly region gets any impact is up in the air (leaning hard no as of now), but fun to watch it evolve

 

On 8/18/2021 at 9:23 AM, Kevin Reilly said:

When do we start taking note of Henri trending further west with some runs. I mean 2 days ago this was 450+ miles out to sea.  Now the HMON has the center 20-30 miles east of NJ with bands getting as far west as Eastern Pennsylvania. 

 

 

 

On 8/18/2021 at 1:02 PM, The Iceman said:

12z GEFS is pretty interesting wrt Henri. There's a cluster of members that bring it into the Jersey shore now. Big time west trend over the last 24 hours. The storm looks to be getting it's act together now. Seems like the stronger members are further west while the weaker one's stay off to the east. Who here has a shore house I can ride out the storm at 

 

 

On 8/18/2021 at 1:12 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS is either going score a massive victory this week over the hurricane guidance or be put to shame again in typical USA model fashion.

And here we are, getting closer and closer.

Currently overcast, with some breaks here and there, misty and wet as well (although not enough to tip the bucket) and 74 with dp 70.

[Ralph Wiggum]

43 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

 

 

 

And here we are, getting closer and closer.

Currently overcast, with some breaks here and there, misty and wet as well (although not enough to tip the bucket) and 74 with dp 70.

6z guidance from NAM to RGEM to hurricane guidance all well West and really closing in on a LI hit now but the trend farther S and W each run continues. Even gets banding deep into SEPA now as it pivots.

[jets]

Trending west as recon data gets in. Boy oh boy if this trend keeps up this might end up in NJ!

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z guidance from NAM to RGEM to hurricane guidance all well West and really closing in on a LI hit now but the trend farther S and W each run continues. Even gets banding deep into SEPA now as it pivots.

Yeah, that's why I'm watching - not so much for a direct hit down this way, but any rain bands...  We have some spots around the area with antecedent wet conditions and still recovering from flooding, with more progged for the weekend, so it could spell some issues.

But if it did hit NY (as a hurricane to boot) then...

[CoolHandMike]

32 minutes ago, jets said:

Trending west as recon data gets in. Boy oh boy if this trend keeps up this might end up in NJ!

My fieldwork in SNJ might be interesting next week, to say the least. Also, my parents are vacationing in southern Maine at the moment. I'm going to call them later and make sure they are prepared.

[Hurricane Agnes]

14 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

My fieldwork in SNJ might be interesting next week, to say the least. Also, my parents are vacationing in southern Maine at the moment. I'm going to call them later and make sure they are prepared.

I was watching Levi Cowan's video outlook from last night (and even since then, the track has shifted further west).  The variables he outlines regarding the strength/position of the trough around us and the position of the ridge to the north, will make the difference on where Henri drifts and turns.

ETA - I just looked at the 6Z HMON and it has Henri doing a direct hit right into western LI and NYC.  

The 6z HWRF has it doing some kind of inland loop - crossing eastern LI and moving inland to CT, and then does a little loop (goes westward across southern NY, then heads back east a bit, drops south, then shifts southeast, and finally exits across eastern LI, and goes out to sea. 

I do know it's the 6z though.

[Newman]

These western members that take it into NYC would certainly impact the Philly region. Rain shield to the west, tors and wind to the east

[Hurricane Agnes]

5 minutes ago, Newman said:

These western members that take it into NYC would certainly impact the Philly region. Rain shield to the west, tors and wind to the east

All but one are hitting either LI or SNE so that is definitely concerning.  Haven't looked at any threads in the NE forum but I'm sure they are jumping.

[Newman]

Something like the 6z RGEM would be pretty bad for Philly on east. Wind won't be a factor here, it'll be the rainfall and flooding if anything and coastal erosion/surf. I'm still not convinced this doesn't landfall across eastern LI and much of this area gets nothing, but the trends keep going west. Remember, many of our tropical systems up here are cemented into history for their flooding, not their wind.

[Hurricane Agnes]

2 minutes ago, Newman said:

Something like the 6z RGEM would be pretty bad for Philly on east. Wind won't be a factor here, it'll be the rainfall and flooding if anything and coastal erosion/surf. I'm still not convinced this doesn't landfall across eastern LI and much of this area gets nothing, but the trends keep going west. Remember, many of our tropical systems up here are cemented into history for their flooding, not their wind.

The ssts north of 40N nearer to LI are cooler which could weaken it (wind wise) but agree that this could be a big rain producer.  Will have to see what the warm water does to the cyclone once it starts recurving to the north.

[The Iceman]

22 minutes ago, Newman said:

Something like the 6z RGEM would be pretty bad for Philly on east. Wind won't be a factor here, it'll be the rainfall and flooding if anything and coastal erosion/surf. I'm still not convinced this doesn't landfall across eastern LI and much of this area gets nothing, but the trends keep going west. Remember, many of our tropical systems up here are cemented into history for their flooding, not their wind.

Yikes, that blob of 6"+ rain is right over my house. With already over 5" on the month, that would devastating around here flooding wise. Won't take much at all to get the creeks and streams around here over their banks with all the rain recently. 

[JTA66]

And since tropical systems unwind from the inside out, I can see the rain shield from a weakening Henri getting "pushed back" into our region. It ain't winter, but we have something to track. 

[KamuSnow]

4 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

And since tropical systems unwind from the inside out, I can see the rain shield from a weakening Henri getting "pushed back" into our region. It ain't winter, but we have something to track. 

There's also a possibility of a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) which could give us a dump of rain before it gets to our latitude.

[The Iceman]

2 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

There's also a possibility of a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) which could give us a dump of rain before it gets to our latitude.

The HRRR shows this. It also tucks the storm just E of NYC. Would be tons of rain for NJ and SE PA if that occurs. But it's also the HRRR so...

 

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

8 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

There's also a possibility of a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) which could give us a dump of rain before it gets to our latitude.

WPC is baking some of that now in their Day 2 & Day 3 (will have to watch for changes - ETA to add Day 1 since S. Jersey is featured in that) -

[Newman]

12z RGEM just upped rainfall amounts, bringing this and stalling it over Eastern PA

[JTA66]

Agnes redux?

If these westward trends continue, Pittsburgh will be in the game by this time tomorrow 

And how much of this maybe Fred's influence -- pumping the ridge in the N. Atlantic?

[Kevin Reilly]

13 minutes ago, Newman said:

12z RGEM just upped rainfall amounts, bringing this and stalling it over Eastern PA

Umm yea wow that’s a problem lol guess we shouldn’t let our guard down 

[The Iceman]

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

17 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

 

I'll do a Ralph with the ICON. 

[Kevin Reilly]

So scorecard:

 

Icon and ARW and  are a left hook into NJ and affect our area while the NAM and GFS are 350 miles further ENE makes total sense now.

[RedSky]

Been following Henri as a Hamptons and New England storm and you guys have maps showing some Sandy/Agnes hybrid