RedSky Posted August 15, 2021 Share Posted August 15, 2021 Below normal August growing more likely. Like to hear when the last time that happened for July&August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 53 minutes ago, RedSky said: Now a forecast of a wet week with showers every day maybe. It was a dry forecast 48hrs ago. Yep take a look at the water vapor map Gulf is and Atlantic open for business to our south the pipeline is lining up and heading Northeast with Fred embedded in the flow to boot too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Now a forecast of a wet week with showers every day maybe. It was a dry forecast 48hrs ago. Better than 90s and DPs in the 70s....sign me up for showers. 74F / DP 56F....critters going nuts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Better than 90s and DPs in the 70s....sign me up for showers. 74F / DP 56F....critters going nuts. Agreed. Plus here the rainfall total so far for August is 0.53". Be nice to catch up a bit. If we got RedSky one of these for his hammock, maybe he'd enjoy it too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Well, only a 1 day DP relief. Didn't take long for it to rise to the mid-upper 60s. DP currently 67F and will probably be in 70s tomorrow. 78F / DP 67F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 After a low of 70 this morning, I did manage to make it to 83 for a high, but the humidity is back. Had run to the supermarket this morning and it was definitely noticeable. The sun was in and out earlier but it's been generally overcast most of the afternoon. Currently 79 with dp 68 and overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Today was absolutely lovely working outside with the heavy cloud cover. The only exceptions were when the clouds momentarily broke and the sun shone through, instantly raising the factor of uncomfortability, but thankfully those moments were far and few between. Hard to beat that summer sun angle I guess, though it's interesting to think that we now have the same amount of daylight as April 25th. It'll be the fall equinox in just over a month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Light shower...no sunscreen needed for the next few days. 71F / DP 67F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 On 8/14/2021 at 9:49 AM, CoolHandMike said: Interesting. I don't suppose you have dewpoint data? I don't normally track that but I do have it - will need to look it up...no doubt it must be high as DPs were unreal last week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Slight conditional tornado risk tomorrow evening and night with Fred coming through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 So far had a low of 71 and high of 83 today, but with the changeable skies (mostly overcast), the temp has understandably fluctuated. It is definitely feeling more humid out though and it's currently 82 with dp 71. Need a little rain here now. Have been looking at what appears to be subsidence just drying up the metro I95 corridor, with a band of showers to the south in MD and DE and a scattered band that shifted from the Lehigh Valley and Poconos, to the far north near the PA/NY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Getting some light rain coming up from the south. It just reached the level to be enough to tip the bucket with 0.01" after wetting the walks. Temp is currently 79 with dp 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 Flood Advisories in northern DE, those storms have been sitting there for a few hours. Any posters down there? 82F/DP 72F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 If these CAMs come to fruition for tomorrow, there's a legit tornado threat for much of the Lehigh Valley towards the evening. Sounding below is for Berks county, there's some PDS TOR soundings coming out of Harrisburg on the 3k NAM. With ample daytime heating, along with a remnant tropical system moving to our west putting us in the warm sector with increased Storm Relative Helicity and Effective Shear... yeah it could mean lots of rotating cells like what we're seeing in Georgia and South Carolina today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 4 hours ago, JTA66 said: Flood Advisories in northern DE, those storms have been sitting there for a few hours. Any posters down there? 82F/DP 72F My current work site is just across the DMB in NJ and we got absolutely drenched this afternoon. Didn't see any flood conditions at the site nor on my way home through I-95 and 202 though. We also appeared to dodge several of the storms coming through in the morning and around noon though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Wound up with 0.21" of rain from the afternoon showers, not much but enough to knock the dust down. Total for August to date here is 0.72", we shall see if we do any catching up as the week goes on. A year ago we had over 12" here the 1st week of August, so we're balancing out a bit. Currently 78F, dp 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Mount Holly on tomorrow: With impressive curved hodographs and low-level helicity values from 200 to 300 m2/s2, there easily could be a quick spin up tornado or two. Again, this depends on the exact track of the low and how much surface heating we can realize tomorrow. Shear and helicity may be enough to overcome the low CAPE values generally less than 2000 J/kg across the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Appears to be a Berks and west event. Mid/upper Mont/Bucks maybe a .5" and lessens heading east. Basically a cloudy humid day w/some showers especially later this afternoon. Hope something "pops up" out of nowhere but not holding my breath... 74F / DP 72F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Appears to be a Berks and west event. Mid/upper Mont/Bucks maybe a .5" and lessens heading east. Basically a cloudy humid day w/some showers especially later this afternoon. Hope something "pops up" out of nowhere but not holding my breath... 74F / DP 72F It would be the second time this year a tropical entity moved through the region and our backyards had little to show for it. Elsa was a nothing burger here, too. Still, as Newman keeps mentioning, we'll have to keep an eye out for a line (maybe two?) of severe weather this evening into the overnight. 75F/DP 73F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Appears to be a Berks and west event. Mid/upper Mont/Bucks maybe a .5" and lessens heading east. Basically a cloudy humid day w/some showers especially later this afternoon. Hope something "pops up" out of nowhere but not holding my breath... 74F / DP 72F Yeah we've gone from 1-2" possible on Monday to basically nothing now. Just humidity and cloudy skies. The hrrr and nam give 95 east basically a trace. The rgem suite though has 1-2" for the area with the mesos kind of in between but leaning more towards the nam with .25-.5". With the further west track though I'm leaning towards the HRRR and NAM being correct. Lehigh valley should still get a good soaking but nothing like the 3-5" being forecasted earlier in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Posting this not because I believe it, but because it's funny and deep down we're all weenies... HMON captures future Hurricane Henri into the coast. The GFS is similar, only it captures it into SNE. Same with the UKMET. Whether or not the Philly region gets any impact is up in the air (leaning hard no as of now), but fun to watch it evolve 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Newman said: Posting this not because I believe it, but because it's funny and deep down we're all weenies... HMON captures future Hurricane Henri into the coast. The GFS is similar, only it captures it into SNE. Same with the UKMET. Whether or not the Philly region gets any impact is up in the air (leaning hard no as of now), but fun to watch it evolve LOL I have been watching the track change further and further west before the N/NE direction change the past couple days. It was originally progged to do a tight loop around Bermuda and out to sea but each subsequent update has it moving more and more westward before making the turn. In any case, I've been getting on and off stratus this morning along with the general overcast. Low this morning was 74 and it's currently 77, with dp 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: It would be the second time this year a tropical entity moved through the region and our backyards had little to show for it. Elsa was a nothing burger here, too. Still, as Newman keeps mentioning, we'll have to keep an eye out for a line (maybe two?) of severe weather this evening into the overnight. 75F/DP 73F 25 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Yeah we've gone from 1-2" possible on Monday to basically nothing now. Just humidity and cloudy skies. The hrrr and nam give 95 east basically a trace. The rgem suite though has 1-2" for the area with the mesos kind of in between but leaning more towards the nam with .25-.5". With the further west track though I'm leaning towards the HRRR and NAM being correct. Lehigh valley should still get a good soaking but nothing like the 3-5" being forecasted earlier in the week. The thing we have going for us is it's tropical in nature. Stuff still could pan out better than expected with these DPs. I've been outside since 7am replacing plugs/coil packs and such on the car...it's cloudy muggy as hell. It's hard to believe something won't develop eventually during the day/evening...a little afternoon sun would help. 75F / DP 74F . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 When do we start taking note of Henri trending further west with some runs. I mean 2 days ago this was 450+ miles out to sea. Now the HMON has the center 20-30 miles east of NJ with bands getting as far west as Eastern Pennsylvania. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Sun making a appearance...78F / DP 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Despite the cloud cover and attempts at the sun trying to break through but not quite making it out, the temp has soared a bit more than I expected. So far the high here hit 87 but it's currently mostly cloudy, with a few breaks in the ceiling, and 86, with a disgusting dp of 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 12z GEFS is pretty interesting wrt Henri. There's a cluster of members that bring it into the Jersey shore now. Big time west trend over the last 24 hours. The storm looks to be getting it's act together now. Seems like the stronger members are further west while the weaker one's stay off to the east. Who here has a shore house I can ride out the storm at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 12z GEFS is pretty interesting wrt Henri. There's a cluster of members that bring it into the Jersey shore now. Big time west trend over the last 24 hours. The storm looks to be getting it's act together now. Seems like the stronger members are further west while the weaker one's stay off to the east. Who here has a shore house I can ride out the storm at GFS is either going score a massive victory this week over the hurricane guidance or be put to shame again in typical USA model fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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