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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2021 OBS Thread


JTA66
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We'll see how things play out the next few hours but today honestly looks almost identical to yesterday. Line forming in western/central PA that will be decaying by the time it reaches SE PA in the evening due to the loss of heating. It may survive longer though as instability is higher than yesterday plus mt holly mentioned that things may take longer to cool off this evening.  N and W will have the best shot at severe while 95 may get some outflow winds and a brief heavy downpour. 

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34 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Models have already missed the early activity in the state today. 

 

None of them have that complex forming over north central PA at the moment. Development looks to be further east than progged which should get the convection into N and W areas at least and not dissipate like the models had shown previously. Still iffy about SE PA/NJ though.

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52 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

We'll see how things play out the next few hours but today honestly looks almost identical to yesterday. Line forming in western/central PA that will be decaying by the time it reaches SE PA in the evening due to the loss of heating. It may survive longer though as instability is higher than yesterday plus mt holly mentioned that things may take longer to cool off this evening.  N and W will have the best shot at severe while 95 may get some outflow winds and a brief heavy downpour. 

My shower chance overnight dropped from 40 to 30% :huh:

 

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Based on the past couple days being analogs, that means you'll be flooding. :lol:

Temp so far has hit 95 as a high and currently 95 and mostly sunny with dp 76.

Yeah when I saw 30% I said it's go time. Radar looks bleak now but there is new stuff in wester PA for a later hit.

 

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Looks like my 95 was it for the high and I'm down to 89 wih dp down to 72.

Radar is still clear so I guess the past couple days took all the moisture out of the air and with today's "dry", it may actually get a little hotter tomorrow since there shouldn't be as much energy needed to remove the ground moisture this time (unless something forms overnight).  There is a blob and line of convection back over Pittsburgh but that looks like it may take some time to get here.

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16 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Looks like my 95 was it for the high and I'm down to 89 wih dp down to 72.

Radar is still clear so I guess the past couple days took all the moisture out of the air and with today's "dry", it may actually get a little hotter tomorrow since there shouldn't be as much energy needed to remove the ground moisture this time (unless something forms overnight).  There is a blob and line of convection back over Pittsburgh but that looks like it may take some time to get here.

It was increased to 40% again in my local forecast, it's toast

 

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's perfectly timed to obscure the Perseid shower

 

I don't even bother looking for the annual meteor showers around here anymore.  It's always either rainy or some deck of high clouds suddenly appear to block the sky. Thankfully i got chance to see the Perseids during an August work trip in Colorado about 35 years ago (at ~8200 ft altitude where the lodge was).  The whole sky there was literally awesome at night.  "Dark sky" was a misnomer because it was all Milkway and everything else, with a sprinkle of continual Perseids. :lol:

I did pop out to see what will be a setting crescent moon in a pretty clear sky though.  The critters are making a racket and the katydids are officially here making more noise than the crickets. :huh:

Temp is "down to" 84 with dp 74.

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40 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Lots of "heat" lightning

Yeah we're seeing some of that there heat lightning here as well, but you can still see the stars, for now. Wouldn't mind if that line or the one behind it gave us some rain at least. Got a total of 0.26" the last 2 nights. Not complaining, it cooled things off nicely 2 nights in a row, but we could handle a little more.

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Have already hit a 90 just after 10:30 this morning (#29 since May), with a low of 74.

Am currently @90 with a mixed-out dp of 69 (much better than the mid-upper 70s earlier this week, which probably also included "burning off" the moisture from the antecedent rain at that time).  May hit the mid-90s earlier today but will see.

 

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