The Iceman Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 None of the models had that storm complex developing/strengthening entering western PA. Will be interesting to watch this afternoon if it holds together. It's moving at a pretty good pace, if it holds together maybe entering the region around 5-7 pm this evening. Decent instability across the state too although shear is pretty much non existent. Something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Current temp 92/DP 78/RH 64% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 91F here, dp 79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Areas affected...Portions of Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111803Z - 111930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat is increasing across portions of southern Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has had intermittently stronger intensity at times as it has moved from northern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. However, over the past 30 minutes, it appears storm activity on the leading edge has started to realize the increasing surface based instability ahead of this line of storms as the line has filled in and reflectivity has become more intense. There is a well established cold pool associated with this activity with temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 in its wake. Given this well-established cold pool, combined with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg, DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, and effective shear around 25 knots per SPC mesoanalysis, downstream persistence/potential strengthening is expected. In addition, thunderstorm activity is anticipated ahead of this line. While this activity is not expected to be overly organized, a favorable thermodynamic environment will support strong updraft/downdraft pairs and the potential for waterloaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. Therefore, given these factors, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed across this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 14 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Mesoscale Discussion 1481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Areas affected...Portions of Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111803Z - 111930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat is increasing across portions of southern Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has had intermittently stronger intensity at times as it has moved from northern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. However, over the past 30 minutes, it appears storm activity on the leading edge has started to realize the increasing surface based instability ahead of this line of storms as the line has filled in and reflectivity has become more intense. There is a well established cold pool associated with this activity with temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 in its wake. Given this well-established cold pool, combined with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg, DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, and effective shear around 25 knots per SPC mesoanalysis, downstream persistence/potential strengthening is expected. In addition, thunderstorm activity is anticipated ahead of this line. While this activity is not expected to be overly organized, a favorable thermodynamic environment will support strong updraft/downdraft pairs and the potential for waterloaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. Therefore, given these factors, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed across this region. IOW - Currently partly sunny and sitting at 92 with a disgusting dp of 79. Had it briefly hit 93 around 2:30 pm (so far) though. Just stepped out to experience the unbreathable sauna and ran back in. ETA - and here is is from SPC - Quote Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 300 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC001-009-011-013-017-025-027-029-037-041-043-045-055-057-061- 067-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-111-119- 133-120100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0427.210811T1900Z-210812T0100Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BERKS BLAIR BUCKS CARBON CENTRE CHESTER COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH MIFFLIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SOMERSET UNION YORK $$ Quote Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 300 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJC007-011-015-019-021-033-041-120100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0427.210811T1900Z-210812T0100Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER SALEM WARREN $$ Quote Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 300 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DEC001-003-120100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0427.210811T1900Z-210812T0100Z/ DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 93F / DP 76F Decent activity on radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 That is significant activity in the center part of the state. Only 30% chance is looking too low this evening, here we go again. Once again I need a good idea if it will shower or not ay carumba 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 12k NAM has completely missed this, like the arrow has landed in the parking lot of the Wawa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: That is significant activity in the center part of the state. Only 30% chance is looking too low this evening, here we go again. Once again I need a good idea if it will shower or not ay carumba SPC just put up a couple Watches for the area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 There is like no point in consulting computer models anymore game over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: SPC just put up a couple Watches for the area. Pretty weird how they left Burlington county out of the watch. Like north and south of them in NJ both have a watch but they don't. Timing wise, areas to the N and W have a better shot of seeing severe than 95 area imo. Doesn't look like the main line will get here until 7 or 8 and by then instability will begin to wane. I'll be pretty surprised if it holds together for most of the area in 95. Chester/Berks/Lehigh looks to have the best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, RedSky said: There is like no point in consulting computer models anymore game over. Even the HRRR has been useless today and it's initialized with the latest radar each hour. All the models were totally lost today with the convection. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 No likey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Pretty weird how they left Burlington county out of the watch. Like north and south of them in NJ both have a watch but they don't. Timing wise, areas to the N and W have a better shot of seeing severe than 95 area imo. Doesn't look like the main line will get here until 7 or 8 and by then instability will begin to wane. I'll be pretty surprised if it holds together for most of the area in 95. Chester/Berks/Lehigh looks to have the best shot. Could be they are thinking it will be running more to the south (where it is really juicy). You see that in Sterling's Watch area - I don't think SPC splits counties with parallelograms so they just left Burlington out, maybe thinking any convection from the north of there would send outflow down through there (NY doesn't have any T-storm Watches up at this time). It still obviously allows for short-fused Warnings as the storms develop (and/or redevelop) over areas not in a Watch area. I noticed yesterday that there was back-building and pop-ups in the middle of the incoming line cluster from the west, so I would definitely expect short-fused alerts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: That is significant activity in the center part of the state. Only 30% chance is looking too low this evening, here we go again. Once again I need a good idea if it will shower or not ay carumba Move it inside, the dewpoint is too high for a cookout, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Current temp 95/DP 77/RH 58% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Seeing some nice storms bubbling up to my west. We got .83" yesterday, let's see if we get that much today. Still ugly-hot out, down from a high of 95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 About to crushed by the 30% 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yak Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more colorful NWS map! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Absolutely POURING down rain right now. The cul-de-sac is now a lake. I think I see white caps... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 17 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: Absolutely POURING down rain right now. The cul-de-sac is now a lake. Am guessing you are under this conflagration. It has sortof hazed and clouded over here so the temp is down to 88 but dp is still high at 77. 93 pretty much ended up being my high given that with the clouds, it's done going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Hard to believe the models missed this, pretty solid line. Dark skies moving in and breezy... 88F / DP 73F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Hard to believe the models missed this, pretty solid line. Dark skies moving in and breezy... 88F / DP 73F 30% and mostly sunny lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 So umm are we getting another major wave from the blue tomorrow too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 11, 2021 Author Share Posted August 11, 2021 Gust front coming through, temp down to 86F after a high of 92F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Cooled to 73.4 with light rain and distant thunder. Some of the thunderclaps near us sounded like artillery. It was awesome. The cat was not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Gust front coming through, temp down to 86F after a high of 92F. That might actually be an outflow boundary. It actually just started forming within the past 15 minutes moving out ahead of the main line. The main line is stll back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Under a severe tstorm warning here, so far starting out like last night, with some pretty gusty winds for the last 10 minutes, and a couple rumbles of thunder. A bit cooler which is very welcome. Just heard an ice cream truck too, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Holy crap! Watching a shelf cloud approaching. Convection being picked up by lightning detector. Temp is currently 87 with dp 78. ETA - both my sisters are texting shelf cloud pics (from Delco and Montco ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: That might actually be an outflow boundary. It actually just started forming within the past 15 minutes moving out ahead of the main line. The main line is stll back a bit. You'll get it soon. It was decent....25-30mph+? Thunder here, rain should start soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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