The Iceman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Satellite still looks disheartening with SE PA on East is socked in the clouds with no end in sight. Still ML CAPE is continuing to build, up to 1000 j/kg through all of SE PA into the Lehigh Valley. 1500 j/kg poking up through Chester county. More expansive with the 1500 k/kg than the RAP has at this point. Will be interesting if we see some initiation soon in central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 I don't expect the tornado threat to end up materializing, but I could definitely see a bow echo roll through the Philly area similar to last May's event, maybe not to the extreme that was. But even with all of us socked in clouds, the CAPE values should be sufficient enough to support some severe storms and the deep layer shear will help to maintain any line segments. We shall see, I think the NWS and SPC did a great job with this expressing the possible dangers of the event, while also recognizing the chance of failure as well. We might be leaning more so towards "failure" here, but that's what comes with living in this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Newman said: I don't expect the tornado threat to end up materializing, but I could definitely see a bow echo roll through the Philly area similar to last May's event, maybe not to the extreme that was. But even with all of us socked in clouds, the CAPE values should be sufficient enough to support some severe storms and the deep layer shear will help to maintain any line segments. We shall see, I think the NWS and SPC did a great job with this expressing the possible dangers of the event, while also recognizing the chance of failure as well. We might be leaning more so towards "failure" here, but that's what comes with living in this part of the country. check out the LI across SE PA. Already up to -7 in Bucks down through Philly somehow. Also I have no idea what the violent tornado parameter entails but it's above 1 now across SE PA. Agree that we probably won't see an outbreak but I think Iso tornado or 2 is definitely possible if we see a line develop. Things look pretty decent instability wise despite the cloud cover. I also agree wind will be the main threat. I bet SPC issues a meso in the next hour or so. My guess is we see a severe thunderstorm watch issued, would be pretty surprised with a TOR watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Satellite still looks disheartening with SE PA on East is socked in the clouds with no end in sight. Still ML CAPE is continuing to build, up to 1000 j/kg through all of SE PA into the Lehigh Valley. 1500 j/kg poking up through Chester county. More expansive with the 1500 k/kg than the RAP has at this point. Will be interesting if we see some initiation soon in central PA. I take this back re: clouds. Looks like maybe a break in them coming in SE PA? Anyone in Western Bucks/Montco seeing the sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 MD to our west: Mesoscale Discussion 1388 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 Areas affected...Central/South-Central PA...Central MD...Extreme Northern VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291721Z - 291915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Increase in storm coverage and intensity possible, with a corresponding threat for damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Convectively induced shortwave trough continues to progress quickly eastward across the upper OH Valley. Strongest forcing for ascent within this shortwave appears to be moving through central and southwest PA now, demarcated by a line of slightly higher reflectivity from roughly Clearfield County southwestward through Greene County. Estimated motion with the northern/central portion of the line is eastward at around 45 kt. Southern portion of this line appears to be a bit slower, with storm motion estimated to be east-southeastward at 35 kt. In both cases, this area of stronger ascent will continue to move eastward across PA and adjacent northern WV/western MD as the downstream air mass destabilizes. Abundant mid to upper level clouds are obscuring the low-level cloud field as well as tempering heating. Even so, some cumulus can still be seen across eastern areas of the region and temperatures have risen into the upper 70s/low 80s. Based on modified RAP forecast soundings, any remaining convective inhibition is minimal. Consequently, an increase in storm coverage and intensity seems possible as this shortwave continues eastward into this region over the next hour or two. The overall environment supports bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts with any more robust, long-lived storms. ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/29/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 There's a tornado warning out in far western PA for a lone supercell *Reported funnel cloud with it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 SPC up with the Tornado Watch (did see the Warning over in Western PA) - Quote Tornado Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 401 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 225 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021 TORNADO WATCH 401 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC001-009-011-013-017-025-027-029-037-041-043-045-055-057-061- 067-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-119-133- 300100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0401.210729T1825Z-210730T0100Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BEDFORD BERKS BLAIR BUCKS CARBON CENTRE CHESTER COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH MIFFLIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA SCHUYLKILL SNYDER UNION YORK $$ Quote Tornado Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 401 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 225 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021 TORNADO WATCH 401 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037- 041-300100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0401.210729T1825Z-210730T0100Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN $$ Quote Tornado Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 401 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 225 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021 TORNADO WATCH 401 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DEC001-003-005-300100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0401.210729T1825Z-210730T0100Z/ DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 In Avalon this week and haven’t seen the sun today. Hoping the cloud cover sticks and convection is cancelled. I’ve got an outdoor dinner reservation at 5:45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Just noticed the cell over Rehoboth is tornado warned. Looks mean down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: Just noticed the cell over Rehoboth is tornado warned. Looks mean down there. Yeah the hook on that storm is something you don't see often around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Been watching the TOR by Rehoboth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Cell on the MD line north of Frederick has some potential to it. Keeping an eye on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, Phil Connors said: how much for philly ? You spelled "Pittsburgh" wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Looks to be a disappointment up in se pa unless we see some major intensification soon. Clouds were just too much to overcome. Pretty baffled by the tornado watch above the mason Dixon line. Convection there looks extremely bland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Storm in northern Berks looks kinda menacing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Getting light rain. Not enough to tip the bucket yet but enough to wet the walk. Current temp is 79 with dp 73, and it did manage to get to 82 today as a high (so far, although that will probably be it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 TOR up, north of Kutztown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, RedSky said: Storm in northern Berks looks kinda menacing Looks like the "good stuff" will slide by just to your N. I was shocked, you're usually in the jackpot area... Pink is tornado warning: 79F / DP 71F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Gotta say, Philly and local burbs look pretty quiet as of now... 79F / DP 71F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 18 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Looks like the "good stuff" will slide by just to your N. I was shocked, you're usually in the jackpot area... Pink is tornado warning: 79F / DP 71F Today's showers are half way through and so far I stand at a heavy trace-just under .10" The bulk is about to move through and it's falling apart rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Gotta say, Philly and local burbs look pretty quiet as of now... 79F / DP 71F Yes indeed, got a light shower here for about 20 minutes, right after we finished mowing the back, and while cutting up part of a tree (from the storm before Elsa). Now it's just cloudy and quite humid. Radar looking kind of unexciting for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Sky is bright broken and clearly visible to the west where the heavy echoes are arriving, color me skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Today's showers are half way through and so far I stand at a heavy trace-just under .10" The bulk is about to move through and it's falling apart rapidly Move through? It never arrived...everything to the N (Lehigh Valley) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 So far have 0.02" of light rain. Temp currently 77 with dp 74 and misty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Move through? It never arrived...everything to the N (Lehigh Valley) Yeah for whatever reason COD radar had been making this look much better than reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Light rain shower just about done in Levittown. Maybe we get clipped by the stuff to our west out in Lancaster and reading? Doesnt look severe. Cell up by Allentown is pretty impressive, any reports of tornados? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Sky is bright broken and clearly visible to the west where the heavy echoes are arriving, color me skeptical If you drive N 5-10 minutes you may witness flying cows... 78F / DP 71F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted July 29, 2021 Author Share Posted July 29, 2021 As Ji would say, I can see the back edge already. Had some sprinkles move through, we’ll see if anything pops as the afternoon wares on. 78F/DP 73F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 This cluster should give Philly burbs/Philly some hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 I just sat in the garage with the door open listening to the light rain. Heard a little bit of distant thunder but that's it so far. Received a tornado warning for Northern Berks but that's way far away from us here in Reading, however it looks like a cell might be forming to my west though, so we'll se if it turns into something. .06" in the gauge so far, temp 77 and DP 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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