E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2021 OBS Thread

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

So I guess we can expect "First Destruction Alerts" from Ch10 and "Accu-Destructo Alerts" from Ch6. 

Up to 92F so far, only made it to 89F yesterday. Looks like today will be our last 90's for awhile (thanks for posting the weather porn, Newman!).

I like these new colorful wording guidlines. I would request they add a "Noah's ark event" for floods and "complete and total aniahalation" in the path of a Cat 5.

[Hurricane Agnes]

2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

The criteria is rather high. I don't think I've ever experienced 2.75" hail or 80mph winds...

91F / DP 68F

I was down in Acapulco on vacation back in 1989 when Hurricane Cosme hit, making landfall just east of where we were, and the winds/wind gusts were probably close to that 80 mph.  Cosme eventually cut across Mexico, reformed in the GOM, was renamed to TS Allison, and hit Texas, so by the time we got home, we got hit with it again in remnant form.   After that one, NHC no longer renames systems that cross between the Pacific & Atlantic (if they maintain some type of circulation even as a Low).

They didn't evacuate us or anything (the hotel was really solid, made of concrete, and anchored right into some rocky outcrops of Acapulco Bay).  But there were a ton of ships, including some naval ones, that had come into the bay to ride it out the day before.  The max winds before landfall were clocking in at around 86 mph.

Quote

Hurricane Cosme Hits Shore; Downgraded To Storm

June 22, 1989

 

 

MEXICO CITY (AP) _ Hurricane Cosme roared into Mexico’s Pacific coast with 87 mph winds and heavy rains, then lost its punch and was downgraded to a tropical storm, officials said Thursday.  Officials reported no serious damage or injuries.

Cosme, the season’s second hurricane, hit land Wednesday night, Mexico’s National Weather Service said. The areas hardest hit were along the coast between Puerto Escondido, about 300 miles southwest of Mexico City, and Acapulco, about 250 miles south of the capital, it said. The storm moved inland Thursday morning and became a tropical storm, the weather reports said.

Leandro Hernaandez, weather service spokesman for Oaxaca state, where Puerto Escondido is located, said heavy rains continued in the area through Thursday morning.  Authorities evacuated 260 families from their homes Wednesday night in a low-lying Acapulco slum near the Perro River as a precaution against flooding, the government news agency Notimex said.

Port officials said the ports of Acapulco and Puerto Escondido were closed Wednesday afternoon as a precautionary measure and remained closed Thursday afternoon. The first hurricane of the season was Barbara off northwestern Baja California earlier this week, the weather service said. It caused no serious damage.

I remember a lot of convection and the eye passed overhead since everything went calm and the stars were visible.  Then all hell broke loose as the backside of the storm came ashore.  We weren't about to go outside although we did pop out on the balcony a few times but this was all happening at night, so it was hard to see anything.  People who lived on the other side of the cliffs were flooded out.  The surge brought the water all the way up to and over the pool earlier that afternoon.

To throw an obs in since I think I've hit my high - 93 was it.  Currently 88 and partly cloudy with dp 64.

[ChescoWx]

90+ readings at all reporting stations across Eastern PA with the exceptions of Mount Pocono / Lehighton / KMQS - Coatesville / Pennridge and of course East Nantmeal at 86.9 - 22nd 90+ day at PHL while KMQS /KPTW and East Nantmeal combined with 21 such days

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 95 here.

Current temp 79/DP 60/RH 53%

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.44" of rain so far today with the rain/storms overnight.

[Birds~69]

19 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I was down in Acapulco on vacation back in 1989 when Hurricane Cosme hit, making landfall just east of where we were, and the winds/wind gusts were probably close to that 80 mph.  Cosme eventually cut across Mexico, reformed in the GOM, was renamed to TS Allison, and hit Texas, so by the time we got home, we got hit with it again in remnant form.   After that one, NHC no longer renames systems that cross between the Pacific & Atlantic (if they maintain some type of circulation even as a Low).

They didn't evacuate us or anything (the hotel was really solid, made of concrete, and anchored right into some rocky outcrops of Acapulco Bay).  But there were a ton of ships, including some naval ones, that had come into the bay to ride it out the day before.  The max winds before landfall were clocking in at around 86 mph.

I remember a lot of convection and the eye passed overhead since everything went calm and the stars were visible.  Then all hell broke loose as the backside of the storm came ashore.  We weren't about to go outside although we did pop out on the balcony a few times but this was all happening at night, so it was hard to see anything.  People who lived on the other side of the cliffs were flooded out.  The surge brought the water all the way up to and over the pool earlier that afternoon.

To throw an obs in since I think I've hit my high - 93 was it.  Currently 88 and partly cloudy with dp 64.

I don't even remember Hurricane Cosme but it's cool you were part of the event. Nice hotel and honestly I'd rather be on a vacation w/a impending/possible Hurricane/TS than sunny 70s and low DPs.

I don't think I ever felt wind gust greater than low-mid 70s and hail no greater than 1-1.5" diameter.

Not bad outside today at all...

82F / DP 62F  

[Newman]

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

I don't even remember Hurricane Cosme but it's cool you were part of the event. Nice hotel and honestly I'd rather be on a vacation w/a impending/possible Hurricane/TS than sunny 70s and low DPs.

I don't think I ever felt wind gust greater than low-mid 70s and hail no greater than 1-1.5" diameter.

Not bad outside today at all...

82F / DP 62F  

Cosme (" '89 " because the name was used again multiple times since), was a Pacific cyclone and when it crossed over into the GOM as a remnant and regenerated, it was renamed as a new TS - Allison.   We got a good soaking from the moisture that got shunted up here from it in the Philly metro area. 

The day before it hit, we had been in Mexico City and touring around the Pyramids of the Sun and Moon and it was windy.  The guides were really anxious and jittery about it and one of them finally exclaimed that it had never been that windy like that there that he could recall (the city itself is like 7400 ft altitude).  We flew out of there later that afternoon and went from mid-70s and low humidity to an absolute slop bin of 96 and what had to be an 80 dp in Acapulco.   That next evening on the TV in the room (stations all in Spanish), one thing stood out in one news segment's headline - the word "Huracán".  

The open air lobby ended up getting flooded (but then apparently they were used to that), power was out in the hotel for awhile, and there was a general warm showery rain on and off the rest of that next day, but it was interesting to see what it was like being in the "eye" of a hurricane (although it was night and it was as if the storm was over, but it wasn't).

 

After that, the NHC no longer renames storms that cross between the oceans if they maintain some sort of remnant and restrengthen.

Sorry about the OT, but a little color analysis since the Atlantic is "quiet" at the moment.

I expected it to get somewhat hottish today (although not like yesterday) but it didn't even really do that.  So far my high has been 86 but it's currently partly cloudy and 84 with dp 64 (so bearable and more "typical" for mid-late summer).

[Hurricane Agnes]

49 minutes ago, Newman said:

I know there has been a rumbling of thoughts about an upcoming pattern shift that might support derechos, although not certain if any that are progged to possibly form in the MW, would actually make it this far into our CWA.  However they have done so in the recent past so... something to watch for.

[CoolHandMike]

23 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Cosme (" '89 " because the name was used again multiple times since), was a Pacific cyclone and when it crossed over into the GOM as a remnant and regenerated, it was renamed as a new TS - Allison.   We got a good soaking from the moisture that got shunted up here from it in the Philly metro area. 

The day before it hit, we had been in Mexico City and touring around the Pyramids of the Sun and Moon and it was windy.  The guides were really anxious and jittery about it and one of them finally exclaimed that it had never been that windy like that there that he could recall (the city itself is like 7400 ft altitude).  We flew out of there later that afternoon and went from mid-70s and low humidity to an absolute slop bin of 96 and what had to be an 80 dp in Acapulco.   That next evening on the TV in the room (stations all in Spanish), one thing stood out in one news segment's headline - the word "Huracán".  

The open air lobby ended up getting flooded (but then apparently they were used to that), power was out in the hotel for awhile, and there was a general warm showery rain on and off the rest of that next day, but it was interesting to see what it was like being in the "eye" of a hurricane (although it was night and it was as if the storm was over, but it wasn't).

 

After that, the NHC no longer renames storms that cross between the oceans if they maintain some sort of remnant and restrengthen.

Sorry about the OT, but a little color analysis since the Atlantic is "quiet" at the moment.

I expected it to get somewhat hottish today (although not like yesterday) but it didn't even really do that.  So far my high has been 86 but it's currently partly cloudy and 84 with dp 64 (so bearable and more "typical" for mid-late summer).

If memory serves, I remember getting a ton of rain in one summer storm that completely flooded the neighboring creek in a way that we'd never seen before. I remember going out in my wellies with a neighbor friend and stomping around in the periphery (!!!) and just marveling at how much water there was in a place where the stream is usually only a foot deep. It flooded it's banks and must have been 10 ft deep in the center of the channel, though of course we never got close to that. This would have been the summer before high school and I was definitely an outdoor kid. Thanks for sharing that Agnes!

Looks like it's clouding over just a bit over here; it's actually quite pleasant outside at the moment.

[mattinpa]

7 hours ago, Newman said:

Do you think a Tornado Watch for tomorrow is likely?

[Newman]

1 hour ago, mattinpa said:

Do you think a Tornado Watch for tomorrow is likely?

All depends on what happens tonight and tomorrow morning. The DCA AFD explains it best. Short answer is yes I do think a tornado watch is likely tomorrow afternoon and evening.

 

The environment in the wake of the leftover convective debris as
the convectively enhanced speed max moves overhead is
concerning. Models such as the NAM and Euro spread a belt of
40-50 knot flow in the 700-500 hPa layer over the northern half
of our CWA by around peak heating. If we were to destabilize and
storms were to form in that type of environment, the potential
is there for a significant severe weather event, with very high
winds, large hail, and tornadoes all possible. However, there`s
considerable disagreement amongst the various models as to if
and where storms will form in the wake of what`s left of today`s
Upper Midwest system. Strong MCSs are often not handled well by
both the CAMs and global guidance, and any system that forms
today will have a strong influence on our weather for tomorrow.
As a result, confidence in the evolution of storms tomorrow
remains low. Confidence should gradually increase over time as
today`s system gets going and becomes better handled by model
guidance. We`ll continue to refine our forecast for what is a
low confidence, but also potentially high impact severe weather
event tomorrow.

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

All depends on what happens tonight and tomorrow morning. The DCA AFD explains it best. Short answer is yes I do think a tornado watch is likely tomorrow afternoon and evening.

 

The environment in the wake of the leftover convective debris as
the convectively enhanced speed max moves overhead is
concerning. Models such as the NAM and Euro spread a belt of
40-50 knot flow in the 700-500 hPa layer over the northern half
of our CWA by around peak heating. If we were to destabilize and
storms were to form in that type of environment, the potential
is there for a significant severe weather event, with very high
winds, large hail, and tornadoes all possible. However, there`s
considerable disagreement amongst the various models as to if
and where storms will form in the wake of what`s left of today`s
Upper Midwest system. Strong MCSs are often not handled well by
both the CAMs and global guidance, and any system that forms
today will have a strong influence on our weather for tomorrow.
As a result, confidence in the evolution of storms tomorrow
remains low. Confidence should gradually increase over time as
today`s system gets going and becomes better handled by model
guidance. We`ll continue to refine our forecast for what is a
low confidence, but also potentially high impact severe weather
event tomorrow.

Thank you. I will be keeping track of what is happening with the weather tomorrow. 

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

10 hours ago, mattinpa said:

Do you think a Tornado Watch for tomorrow is likely?

Might be short-fused focusing on a certain part of the CWA.  I expect there to be a Severe Thunderstorm Watch lofted before then.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Another 69 low this morning and it has been rather unsettled as some negatively-tilted little line of pop-ups formed and passed over part of the area.  The northern extent of it pretty much dissipated when it got to me but the overcast reminded me to put my patio umbrella down.   One of my neighbors had theirs up during that straight-line wind event and it was only because of how the back of their house faces that their umbrella managed to wedge up against the house and part of the privacy fence when it overturned, and not go soaring elsewhere.

Currently 73 with dp 67 and yup, it's a bit steamy out there this morning.  Will have to watch all that stuff going on in the MW to see what manages to survive this far to here.

 

[CoolHandMike]

Trash collection came super early today. I mean, in the 10 months I've lived here, it's never come before 8am on collection day. Somebody at the main office must be tuned in to what's going on...

Everybody's saying there is low model confidence leading up to today's events what with the MCS descending from our NW. I'm not seeing much in the way of shear, and CAPE seems to be relatively low throughout the day (1000-1500) but LI values seem a little bit more interesting, possibly dipping to -4 over our area if I'm reading the RAP right. Could we (or at least our northern tier) be under a classic Larko's Triangle setup this evening? Daytime heating will struggle under our present cloud deck but there's certainly enough moisture with DP forecasted at or above 70°F this afternoon.

This will be interesting to watch develop over the course of the day. Glad I'm working from home today

[Newman]

2 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Trash collection came super early today. I mean, in the 10 months I've lived here, it's never come before 8am on collection day. Somebody at the main office must be tuned in to what's going on...

Everybody's saying there is low model confidence leading up to today's events what with the MCS descending from our NW. I'm not seeing much in the way of shear, and CAPE seems to be relatively low throughout the day (1000-1500) but LI values seem a little bit more interesting, possibly dipping to -4 over our area if I'm reading the RAP right. Could we (or at least our northern tier) be under a classic Larko's Triangle setup this evening? Daytime heating will struggle under our present cloud deck but there's certainly enough moisture with DP forecasted at or above 70°F this afternoon.

This will be interesting to watch develop over the course of the day. Glad I'm working from home today

Here is a sounding for Berks later on.

 

Notice there is AMPLE deep layer shear and a huge amount of veering in the lower levels. 61 knots of EFF Shear is insane around here! Plenty of SRH too. The problem is the amount of SBCAPE for the storms to tap into. Lots of low level cloudiness this morning. It's still very early though, so if we're still socked in clouds by 11-12, then I'd say the storm chances dramatically diminish. However, Mount Holly mentions that even if we don't completely clear out, there will still be enough MLCAPE to tap into

 

As described
above, the forecast is for the morning showers and isolated
thunderstorms to slowly translate east. As this occurs a
fractured stratus deck will start to lift. The stalled front
currently near the fall line will also lift north as a warm
front with rich theta-e air surging northwards. This recycled
moisture regime will help to destabilize the region even if the
stratus doesn`t ever completely clear. Both the GFS and NAM are
indicating MLCAPE values of around 1000/1500 J/kg. Still though,
the amount of available instability is one of the potential
failure modes today (esp. if morning showers prove to be more
robust than initially forecast). Generally though, during late
July it doesn`t take much to destabilize the region.

Early this afternoon the MCV will be approaching from the west
with showers and thunderstorms across central PA. Ascent will
increase across the region as the MCV approaches. Across the
warm sector, effective bulk shear values of ~45 kts will be more
than sufficient to support rotating updrafts. Some upscale
growth is forecast as multiple cold pools start to be deposited
and merge. The primary threats with these storms will be
damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado (thanks to
slightly back southeast flow and impressive directional shear).

[KamuSnow]

Picked up 0.15" of rain from the showers that moved through earlier.

[CoolHandMike]

39 minutes ago, Newman said:

Here is a sounding for Berks later on.

 

Notice there is AMPLE deep layer shear and a huge amount of veering in the lower levels. 61 knots of EFF Shear is insane around here! Plenty of SRH too. The problem is the amount of SBCAPE for the storms to tap into. Lots of low level cloudiness this morning. It's still very early though, so if we're still socked in clouds by 11-12, then I'd say the storm chances dramatically diminish. However, Mount Holly mentions that even if we don't completely clear out, there will still be enough MLCAPE to tap into

 

As described
above, the forecast is for the morning showers and isolated
thunderstorms to slowly translate east. As this occurs a
fractured stratus deck will start to lift. The stalled front
currently near the fall line will also lift north as a warm
front with rich theta-e air surging northwards. This recycled
moisture regime will help to destabilize the region even if the
stratus doesn`t ever completely clear. Both the GFS and NAM are
indicating MLCAPE values of around 1000/1500 J/kg. Still though,
the amount of available instability is one of the potential
failure modes today (esp. if morning showers prove to be more
robust than initially forecast). Generally though, during late
July it doesn`t take much to destabilize the region.

Early this afternoon the MCV will be approaching from the west
with showers and thunderstorms across central PA. Ascent will
increase across the region as the MCV approaches. Across the
warm sector, effective bulk shear values of ~45 kts will be more
than sufficient to support rotating updrafts. Some upscale
growth is forecast as multiple cold pools start to be deposited
and merge. The primary threats with these storms will be
damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado (thanks to
slightly back southeast flow and impressive directional shear).

I must be looking at the wrong soundings, also I can't seem to find that page on DuPage's NEXLAB. Got a link?

 

 

[Newman]

15 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

I must be looking at the wrong soundings, also I can't seem to find that page on DuPage's NEXLAB. Got a link?

 

 

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

You can choose which model to look at, then click on the map itself once selected all the parameters to create a sounding

[Birds~69]

Sun finally out after a mostly overcast morning...

75F / DP 68F

[Newman]

Latest 3k NAM (which is among all the CAMs that have been struggling with this event) has some gnarly storms later for the area. Even a PDS TOR sounding for @CoolHandMike 

[CoolHandMike]

6 minutes ago, Newman said:

Latest 3k NAM (which is among all the CAMs that have been struggling with this event) has some gnarly storms later for the area. Even a PDS TOR sounding for @CoolHandMike 

Exciting! Might go test fire the genny in a little bit, make sure it's in good working order.

[The Iceman]

Definitely a very tricky forecast today. Satellite imagery doesn't look promising with the cloud deck hanging overhead right now at almost 11 am. Beginning to clear in SC PA but I'm guessing SE PA has at least another 2 hours in the clouds. ML CAPE already at 500 though N and W of 95 so already some instability out there. That really needs to be in the 1000-1500 range though if we are going to see significant severe. I think things will hinge on how much clearing we see this afternoon. Pretty insane shear numbers for late july though so this may still perform in spite of the lack of instability. 12z Mesos are honking though for a pretty intense complex to move through in the 4-7 pm time frame.

[Hurricane Agnes]

9 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Definitely a very tricky forecast today. Satellite imagery doesn't look promising with the cloud deck hanging overhead right now at almost 11 am. Beginning to clear in SC PA but I'm guessing SE PA has at least another 2 hours in the clouds. ML CAPE already at 500 though N and W of 95 so already some instability out there. That really needs to be in the 1000-1500 range though if we are going to see significant severe. I think things will hinge on how much clearing we see this afternoon. Pretty insane shear numbers for late july though so this may still perform in spite of the lack of instability.

Unless and until the sortof stationary front moves northward as a warm front to clear the clouds, then we may be socked in (with on and off breaks) for awhile.

Current temp here is 76 with dp up to 70 now.

[Newman]

12 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Definitely a very tricky forecast today. Satellite imagery doesn't look promising with the cloud deck hanging overhead right now at almost 11 am. Beginning to clear in SC PA but I'm guessing SE PA has at least another 2 hours in the clouds. ML CAPE already at 500 though N and W of 95 so already some instability out there. That really needs to be in the 1000-1500 range though if we are going to see significant severe. I think things will hinge on how much clearing we see this afternoon. Pretty insane shear numbers for late july though so this may still perform in spite of the lack of instability. 12z Mesos are honking though for a pretty intense complex to move through in the 4-7 pm time frame.

Latest 1500z update has MLCAPE continuing to grow. Up to 1000 J/kg across Lancaster and a pocket of 1500 J/kg across the Chesapeake Bay. Those values will continue to spread north as the low-level clouds wear thin and the warm front lifts north (hopefully).

[ChescoWx]

Looks like both down the shore in Sea Isle City and up in NW Chesco - both socked in pretty good with clouds....despite that still suspect we see some firing across the area this PM - Hoping the Phillies get in their twin bill today!

[Birds~69]

Sun was breaking through for 30min or so but now overcast and looks to stay that way for some time...

77F / DP 69F