Western PA/Pittsburgh Summer Discussion 2021

[Ahoff]

2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Airmass looks a little more supportive of it tomorrow and/or Tuesday.

Still, it's a struggle for our area to climb to the 90s no matter how supportive the airmass, but it will be interesting to see.

 

Hit 88 today, still the warmest of the year.

[TimB]

Just now, Ahoff said:

Still, it's a struggle for our area to climb to the 90s no matter how supportive the airmass, but it will be interesting to see.

Indeed, 88 today at PIT. AGC also topped out at 88, so a slight underperformance at both.

[Ahoff]

39 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Indeed, 88 today at PIT. AGC also topped out at 88, so a slight underperformance at both.

But this is typical, we should expect 88-89 the next two days.  Anything higher is an overachiever in my books.

[TimB]

16 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

But this is typical, we should expect 88-89 the next two days.  Anything higher is an overachiever in my books.

We hit 90 many, many times last summer. It looks like 17 times to be exact (including one in early June). We topped out at 88/89 a total of 13 times. Which is more typical?

As I’ve said before, if we get to a day where my options are 99 and drenched in sweat or 100 and drenched in sweat, I’ll be right there with you rooting for it.

[Ahoff]

27 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

We hit 90 many, many times last summer. It looks like 17 times to be exact (including one in early June). We topped out at 88/89 a total of 13 times. Which is more typical?

As I’ve said before, if we get to a day where my options are 99 and drenched in sweat or 100 and drenched in sweat, I’ll be right there with you rooting for it.

That's just one year though.  Look at 2019, 3 90 degree days, 10 at 88/89.  I'd bet if you averaged it out 88-89 has more days than 90s.  Plus, looking at last year when looking at the 88/89 days that's based on two temperatures, while we reached 5 different temperatures in the 90s (90, 91, 92, 93 and 94).  So, thirteen days reached two different temperatures and 17 days reached five different temperatures.  I'd say 88/89 is more common.

[TimB]

8 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

That's just one year though.  Look at 2019, 3 90 degree days, 10 at 88/89.  I'd bet if you averaged it out 88-89 has more days than 90s.  Plus, looking at last year when looking at the 88/89 days that's based on two temperatures, while we reached 5 different temperatures in the 90s (90, 91, 92, 93 and 94).  So, thirteen days reached two different temperatures and 17 days reached five different temperatures.  I'd say 88/89 is more common.

Well yes, but then again it would make sense that when the normals are 82 or 83, then 88 would be more common than 89, which would be more common than 90, which would be more common than 91, etc., right?

[Ahoff]

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Well yes, but then again it would make sense that when the normals are 82 or 83, then 88 would be more common than 89, which would be more common than 90, which would be more common than 91, etc., right?

Right, so stopping at 88-89 is more common.  I believe that's basically what I said earlier.  My initial point was underachieving on days forecast to hit the 90s is very typical.  We rarely overachieve and hit 92 on those days, for example, or hit 90 when we are forecasted for upper 80s.  Just seems weird that other areas seem to overachieve more often than we do.  At least it seems that way.

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

Right, so stopping at 88-89 is more common.  I believe that's basically what I said earlier.

True, I suppose technically there is an invisible force that makes it more likely to get to 89 than 90. That invisible force is probability. But I wouldn’t say we underperform any more often than we overperform either.

[Ahoff]

6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

True, I suppose technically there is an invisible force that makes it more likely to get to 89 than 90. That invisible force is probability. But I wouldn’t say we underperform any more often than we overperform either.

I definitely feel we under perform when we are forecast to hit 90.  Lower temperature forecasts are overshot many times, but 90, even with model support, atmospheric support, and forecast support is undershot way more often, despite areas all around reaching and exceeding that number.  That’s my point.

[TimB]

23 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I definitely feel we under perform when we are forecast to hit 90.  Lower temperature forecasts are overshot many times, but 90, even with model support, atmospheric support, and forecast support is undershot way more often, despite areas all around reaching and exceeding that number.  That’s my point.

It’s an interesting point, definitely something I’d be curious about. Not that such statistics probably exist or are kept, but I’d be intrigued to see a statistical analysis of where our highs typically end up on days when we’re forecast and/or modeled to hit exactly 90, and see if that average is lower or higher or about 90 exactly.

[TimB]

10 hours ago, TimB84 said:

It’s an interesting point, definitely something I’d be curious about. Not that such statistics probably exist or are kept, but I’d be intrigued to see a statistical analysis of where our highs typically end up on days when we’re forecast and/or modeled to hit exactly 90, and see if that average is lower or higher or about 90 exactly.

I’ll also add that it’s probably dependent on who is doing the forecasting. I would guess that the NWS is a lot less likely to pull the trigger and forecast 90 when it’s going to be close but they’re only confident in 89, but local news media outlets will forecast 90 in more of those situations. Just a hunch.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

I’ll also add that it’s probably dependent on who is doing the forecasting. I would guess that the NWS is a lot less likely to pull the trigger and forecast 90 when it’s going to be close but they’re only confident in 89, but local news media outlets will forecast 90 in more of those situations. Just a hunch.

I mean probably, but even the NWS does this too.  And it's just a very strange phenomena that drives me nuts.  It's kind of like when we are forecast to stay all snow and mix and rain stays south and almost every time without fail, we switch over (however, this winter was not that issue).

[TimB]

13 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I mean probably, but even the NWS does this too.  And it's just a very strange phenomena that drives me nuts.  It's kind of like when we are forecast to stay all snow and mix and rain stays south and almost every time without fail, we switch over (however, this winter was not that issue).

They’ve already revised the 90s out of their zones for Allegheny county (except in UHI land) for both today and tomorrow.

[Ahoff]

10 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

They’ve already revised the 90s out of their zones for Allegheny county (except in UHI land) for both today and tomorrow.

Interesting, as we're at 82 already (from the weather app centered on KPIT), which seems like a decent temperature to potentially hit 90 later.  I'd like to see it at 86 around noon to feel a little more confident in 90.

[TimB]

48 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Interesting, as we're at 82 already (from the weather app centered on KPIT), which seems like a decent temperature to potentially hit 90 later.  I'd like to see it at 86 around noon to feel a little more confident in 90.

84 now, 2 degrees ahead of yesterday.

[TimB]

From the NWS forecast discussion:

“Additional cloud cover due to the increased southerly and warm moist flow will keep most temps below 90 today.” 

But there’s that 86 at noon. We gained 6 degrees on our noon temp yesterday.

[Ahoff]

15 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

From the NWS forecast discussion:

“Additional cloud cover due to the increased southerly and warm moist flow will keep most temps below 90 today.” 

But there’s that 86 at noon. We gained 6 degrees on our noon temp yesterday.

Right, so could just make it.

[Ahoff]

24 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

From the NWS forecast discussion:

“Additional cloud cover due to the increased southerly and warm moist flow will keep most temps below 90 today.” 

But there’s that 86 at noon. We gained 6 degrees on our noon temp yesterday.

And yet...

The inconsistency is wild, lol.

[north pgh]

My home thermometer just hit 90. With less cloud cover out there now I believe airport should reach 90 today.

[Ahoff]

Officially 88, and tied for the warmest day, barring anything crazy, this should end up as the first 90 degree day.  My weather app, that I have for KPIT, has hit 90, so we'll see if that is accurate.

[Ahoff]

My app has KPIT at 91, so it should have at least hit 90.

[TimB]

8 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

My app has KPIT at 91, so it should have at least hit 90.

That has nothing on the 96 reached by your favorite place that is always hotter than us.

[TimB]

On 6/16/2021 at 6:31 AM, Ahoff said:

I have a feeling this will be one of those summers that doesn't reach 90 here.  It's nothing more than a feeling, so we'll see.

12 days after this post, we’ve officially hit 90.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

That has nothing on the 96 reached by your favorite place that is always hotter than us.

But tell me it makes any sense, lol.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

12 days after this post, we’ve officially hit 90.

Yes, I was going to bring it back and say it aged poorly, but good thing you’re here, lol.

Anyway, was a rare overachiever today, 91.

[Gordo74]

92.1 Here in Ross Twp.

[Ahoff]

Hit 92 officially.

[Ahoff]

This was the warmest June day since 2016.

[KPITSnow]

It genuinely might be one of the most absolutely disgusting nights I can ever remember here….82 at 11pm.

 

Please bring on rain and 65 though at this point I’ll take days under 80.   This is beyond awful.

[TimB]

9 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

It genuinely might be one of the most absolutely disgusting nights I can ever remember here….82 at 11pm.

 

Please bring on rain and 65 though at this point I’ll take days under 80.   This is beyond awful.

But we got down to a nice comfortable low of 72 this morning.