Western PA/Pittsburgh Summer Discussion 2021

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The official NHC number is 150, though their latest update basically says this very well could become a Cat 5 before landfall.

Yea, my mistake.  I was reading "guesses".  I do see that they are finding 170+ just above the surface.  Scary.  And there are lots of people there unfortunately. 

[jwilson]

I have friends down in BR riding out this event (one couldn't leave because of his job).  I'm hoping they'll stay on the north/east side of the eye to spare them the worst of it, but it looks like it will get close.  Regardless, the flooding is going to be quite bad, to put it mildly.

As for us, the track is still uncertain.  We saw a northward shift with Fred which isn't unusual for us.  Maybe something similar happens again (not that a northward shift in this case would really help too much, absent something extraordinary).

[KPITSnow]

2 hours ago, jwilson said:

I have friends down in BR riding out this event (one couldn't leave because of his job).  I'm hoping they'll stay on the north/east side of the eye to spare them the worst of it, but it looks like it will get close.  Regardless, the flooding is going to be quite bad, to put it mildly.

As for us, the track is still uncertain.  We saw a northward shift with Fred which isn't unusual for us.  Maybe something similar happens again (not that a northward shift in this case would really help too much, absent something extraordinary).

I think north would actually be worse. Those 6-10 swaths are all south of the metro, but if you get 6-10 inches on top of us that will cause an absolute load of issues.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

53 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I think north would actually be worse. Those 6-10 swaths are all south of the metro, but if you get 6-10 inches on top of us that will cause an absolute load of issues.

Yeah it's hard to say what to "root" for on this in terms of mitigating impacts. Hopefully some of those rain amounts are overdone at this range. 4-5 inches in an 18-24 hour period will no doubt cause some problems.

[Ahoff]

I am sickened to think we could get as much rain as is being modeled.  I saw some that were pushing 7"!  Hope this stays south.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

I am sickened to think we could get as much rain as is being modeled.  I saw some that were pushing 7"!  Hope this stays south.

Can you imagine that equivalent to the white stuff? Be like 4-5’ of snow!

[Digger]

5 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

4-5 inches in an 18-24 hour period will no doubt cause some problems.

As proven by Ivan in 04. This one is worth keeping an eye on.

[TimB]

This is trouble. One mitigating factor here may be that the last couple rounds of heavy rain have been in north sections of the area (places near Cranberry and adjacent areas got near 3” from the midweek storms and got a wicked storm today). At least this may focus on the southern half of the area, though it is still early and lots of time to change. Still, as others have said, 4+” in a short time is probably too much for most of the area to handle no matter what the antecedent conditions are.

(But it’s looking very likely that regardless of what happens, the good stuff we’ve been waiting for is just on the other side of Ida.)

[Rd9108]

Seems like we are in the crosshairs of the remnants. Anywhere between 2-6 inches in a 24 hour span. This could get ugly if the higher amounts pan out. Looks like it's gonna stay further south but something to watch. 

[KPITSnow]

Latest CPC map actually looks to fringe us. I’d be fine with that, but any bump north puts us in line for a half foot of rain.

[Gordo74]

2" in Pittsburgh, 5"+ in Somerset. 

 

[Rd9108]

4 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

2" in Pittsburgh, 5"+ in Somerset. 

 

Just like snow storms wouldn't take much to bump the higher totals north. 

[Ahoff]

14 hours ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Can you imagine that equivalent to the white stuff? Be like 4-5’ of snow!

Lol, yeah, but we'd never cash out like that.

[Ahoff]

29 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

2" in Pittsburgh, 5"+ in Somerset. 

 

I'll take this, as long as it's not a preview of winter storms.

[Rd9108]

Looks like we may get fringed which I'm totally OK with. 

[Ahoff]

Can we talk about how pleasant the weather looks after Wednesday?  Just beautiful looking.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

3 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Just like snow storms wouldn't take much to bump the higher totals north. 

Latest trends do seem to have shifted SE with the track and expanse of the heaviest rain. That map looks like so many Winter Storms over the past several years it almost triggers some PTSD lol. Only this time I’ll be fine getting fringed, 1-2 inches will be much more manageable and another tick SE puts most of the city out of significant impact.

 

[TimB]

59 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Can we talk about how pleasant the weather looks after Wednesday?  Just beautiful looking.

Maybe there’ll soon be more confidence that Ida will be a fringe job so the only weather we have to think about is the upcoming perfect early fall weather.

[Rd9108]

Take this thing south. I want to actually golf Wednesday. We have had  heavy rain atleast 6 times this summer on Wednesday. 

[jwilson]

I wondered if the right-turn that Ida took early would result in a more southern solution eventually.  Maybe there's no correlation, but for now it looks like that's the case.

Although this looks like a winter storm scenario with a northern-stream vort pressing down and a tight precip gradient.  I'm with Ritual, on this one.  Too many bad memories.

While probably nothing, I hope getting "missed" by two tropical systems doesn't portend something for the winter season.  If we get missed, that is.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, jwilson said:

I wondered if the right-turn that Ida took early would result in a more southern solution eventually.  Maybe there's no correlation, but for now it looks like that's the case.

Although this looks like a winter storm scenario with a northern-stream vort pressing down and a tight precip gradient.  I'm with Ritual, on this one.  Too many bad memories.

While probably nothing, I hope getting "missed" by two tropical systems doesn't portend something for the winter season.  If we get missed, that is.

If it directly correlated to getting winter storms like this, I'd say we could bite the bullet.  I'm not sure if it correlates, but hopefully not if this drops south, lol.

[TimB]

Can’t believe I’m calling a met summer a win when it will finish with a temperature departure near +1.2, even with respect to the warmer normals. But I think it was by and large a pleasant summer except for these warm, humid August stretches, we really didn’t get to 90 all that often, and our longest stretch of 80+ was 12 days (maybe 13 if tomorrow overperforms).

[Rd9108]

I hope the forecast of this staying south happens. The last thing I want is 4 inches of rain in 24 hours. 

[Ahoff]

4 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Can’t believe I’m calling a met summer a win when it will finish with a temperature departure near +1.2, even with respect to the warmer normals. But I think it was by and large a pleasant summer except for these warm, humid August stretches, we really didn’t get to 90 all that often, and our longest stretch of 80+ was 12 days (maybe 13 if tomorrow overperforms).

This was a more miserable summer humidity wise than last year, in my opinion.  This stretch in particular has been rough.  Last year, especially early on seemed rather dry, where you could stand the days in the 90s better than many of the days in the 80s and 90s this year.

[TimB]

29 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

This was a more miserable summer humidity wise than last year, in my opinion.  This stretch in particular has been rough.  Last year, especially early on seemed rather dry, where you could stand the days in the 90s better than many of the days in the 80s and 90s this year.

I think the one thing I’ll give this summer, especially June and July, is that there were some incredible cool and dry days with lower humidity. June balanced it out with a fair number of very warm days. Problem with August has been that all the good days were front-loaded at the beginning of the month so it’s been a brutal almost 4 week period.

[TimB]

0z NAM and HRRR both shifted back north. NAM keeps the flooding rains mostly in WV (1-2” here) but HRRR puts a 6” here. (I’m also a hard no when it comes to rooting for this.)

[Rd9108]

24 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

0z NAM and HRRR both shifted back north. NAM keeps the flooding rains mostly in WV (1-2” here) but HRRR puts a 6” here. (I’m also a hard no when it comes to rooting for this.)

lmao if this was snow we would be pulling our hair right now. We would be mentioning that these always shift north. Well unfortunately 5 inches of rain doesn't sound enjoyable to me.

 

[KPITSnow]

This has some REALLY ugly potential. I would all be for a shift south as I don't really want to see 6 inches of rain over the metro.

[KPITSnow]

Quote

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain from the northern quadrant of Ida will overspread the OH Valley
tonight and continue through most of Wednesday as Ida moves
northeastward through Appalachia. Ida will provide continued moisture
advection against the aforementioned cold front and this will pose a
flood threat to locations under the flash flood watch.

Ida is expected to pivot eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday, and thus will generate a gradient of heavy precipitation
across portions of the region. This gradient, which models are still
trying to nail down, will mean those north of it won`t see much rain,
and those south, could see in excess of 3 inches.

Rain will come to an end after dusk on Wednesday as the remnants of
Ida depart eastward.

The area will dry out and cool down on Thursday.

Honestly given the uncertainties and how impactful this could be this discussion from KPIT is unacceptable.

[TimB]

12 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Honestly given the uncertainties and how impactful this could be this discussion from KPIT is unacceptable.

I tend to agree. Not necessarily because I think we’ll see a half foot of rain in the immediate Pittsburgh area - that’s probably an outlier, but because there’s a solid chance that some location in the PBZ forecast area (MGW, perhaps?) will see 6”. And that possibility covers a solid number of counties under their jurisdiction.