George BM Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion July 4, 2021 2:23PM EDT A well-defined remnant MCV continues to move ESEwards over eastern Ohio. With an increasingly agitated cloud field over eastern OH and into southwestern PA aided by the MCV initiation of thunderstorms in the region is imminent and a severe weather watch will be required within the hour. A stationary front is draped from NW to SE roughly from southwestern PA through the Ocean City, MD area. Surface flow immediately to the northeast of this front is out of the SE. With the hottest June ever experienced in the discussion area and the string of recent days into the triple digits in the Mid-Atlantic and Chesapeake Bay region surface water temps in the Bay are at all-time record highs (31-32+C) with western Atlantic SSTs off of the Delmarva around 28-29C. As a result of this dewpoints have risen into the lower 80’sF. With strong heating allowing temperatures to reach the lower 90’s and steep mid-level lapse rates in excess of 7.5C/km, MLCAPE of 5000-6000+ J/kg is already in place. Effective SRH along and immediately northeast of the front where surface winds are the most backed is up to 150m2/s2. As a result, there is a threat of a tornado with any supercell that manages to form ahead of a likely maturing MCS. Very large hail and severe (possibly significantly so) winds are also likely with supercells. As just hinted at the end of the previous paragraph storms are expected to blossom shortly over eastern OH into extreme northern WVA and southwestern PA. Effective bulk shear 30-40kts along with the extreme instability in place will allow for storms to rapidly organize. With extreme high PW values of 2.2-2.4” and strong downdraft CAPE of up to 1500 J/kg the environment will be exceptionally favorable for cold pool generation as well as embedded wet microbursts within the line. Given the general environment these storms are expected to accelerate quickly SEwards and into the urban corridor by early this evening. Significantly severe winds are a big concern for this area. A QLCS tornado or two is possible as well given the aforementioned effective SRH along with severe hail. Forecaster: GBM Joe the Eskimo: Figures these storms will come just in time to ruin fireworks. Baby Yoda: 18z SPC meso page shows over 6000 J/kg mlcape over most of the region! lwxkm: If we don’t get placed under a moderate risk after THAT disco….. George BM: @lwxkm I’m almost 100% certain that a MDT is incoming with that MCD above. I wonder if we get a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch shortly. Baby Yoda: @George BM We may just end up with a Tornado Watch given how things look right now… 5% TOR probs and all. Bob Chili Dogs: Sup peeps! how much for Rockville? Ravens: Chili Dog Boobs! No way! TheriskisHIGH: @Baby Yoda Back in July 2019 the SPC issued a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of Wisconsin despite an enhanced (10%) tornado risk and the watch having 60/20 tornado probs… probably to stress how severe the wind potential was. That was the watch that stated wind gusts to 105mph expected. George BM: @Baby Yoda I’ve seen the SPC place PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches even with high TOR probs within the watch to drive home the extreme wind potential with storms. The July 19, 2019 PDS STW was placed in an area where there was an enhanced tornado risk and had 60/20 TOR probs. However, WIND probs were maxed out >95/>95. Also, I don’t think I’ve ever seen 6,000+ J/kg MLCAPE combined with 2.3-2.4” Pwats and 1500J/kg DCAPE. The microburst potential with these storms has GOT to be through the roof I’d think. @TheriskisHIGH thoughts about this? ETA: Ninja’d. Lwxkm: Oh boy. The Chili Dog has landed. This just got more legit than ever! Hourlylurker: @Bob Chili Dogs Now it’s a real storm party! I better lose every single tree on my property or I’m calling a bust! George BM: @Hourlylurker Waterboy: Never before have I felt it so humid that I came in the house feeling wet after a mere 30 seconds. Dewpoints are in the low 80s at all three major local airports. I’m getting real worried about the storms later. KW: @Waterboy Buck up Waterboy. You ARE H2O. You’ll be fine. KW: Make sure all your phones are charged down there. I may actually be happy to be getting fringed today at least from the worst of the storms. I’m not too fond of the idea of spending a week+ in an oven with no power. Also… CHILI DOGS! Fancy seeing you here in the summer. Lwxkm: @KW I don’t know. I’d be pretty happy if the oven I was trapped in had no power. That’s when I get outta dodge. Joe the Eskimo: Maryland posters. Please PM me any damage you come across later. CAPE: I hear that I’m very high today. But what did I get high on? Bob Chili Dogs: @Ravens I need to change my display name. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 Wizards are predictable in the 4th quarter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 That was a really fun game. If Embid is out for a game or two, this gets much more interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 1 hour ago, George BM said: Mesoscale Discussion July 4, 2021 2:23PM EDT A tour de force, an epic journey, I laughed, I cried 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 WOAH I don’t get a cameo in all that??? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 This Islanders Bruins game is awesome. Also a full arena of fans making it fun to watch too. Playoff hockey is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: WOAH I don’t get a cameo in all that??? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: WOAH I don’t get a cameo in all that??? Since the snow season runs from July 1st through June 30th I didn't want 2/3rds of the subforum to potentially be reaped before we even start cooling off for the winter should these storms fail to form. A powerful force you are on these boards. Very vigilant we must be around you. Also, did @yoda hack my brain? Stop it, Yoda! That's not nice. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 10 hours ago, Kay said: A tour de force, an epic journey, I laughed, I cried I try the best that I can to bring a smile or a laugh to people on these boards. I often find myself cringe though lol. I'm certainly no @WxWatcher007 @stormtracker @Bob Chill or many others on here comedy-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 14 hours ago, George BM said: Mesoscale Discussion July 4, 2021 2:23PM EDT Ha!!! Bravo, and well done!!! All to real, it seems!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 15 hours ago, George BM said: Mesoscale Discussion July 4, 2021 2:23PM EDT You know you could of told us to get popcorn because that was a popcorn worthy short story. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 2 hours ago, George BM said: Since the snow season runs from July 1st through June 30th I didn't want 2/3rds of the subforum to potentially be reaped before we even start cooling off for the winter should these storms fail to form. A powerful force you are on these boards. Very vigilant we must be around you. Also, did @yoda hack my brain? Stop it, Yoda! That's not nice. I'm retired. I'm harmless now. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm retired. I'm harmless now. Ahhh, nice to relax over a good book! It's always nice to improve one's cranium through extensive reading, though who knows how one can read with no actual eyes or optic nerves. A fine drink on the side helps! I see the Reaper took the old Panic Room bar with him into retirement. 30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: A fine day for a Sunday drive. No cicadas here! Windows down, no watch list to worry about, no new tombstones to create! Life in retirement is good! 30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Reaper's new job...posing for beach fashion magazines? (and...flip-flops??) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 NOPE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 I totally would 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: NOPE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 How often do they have to close that pool from someone who had the sh*t scared out of them? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm retired. I'm harmless now. Unfortunately there seems to be one thing missing in all of your pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm retired. I'm harmless now. 20 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Unfortunately there seems to be one thing missing in all of your pictures. For some of us even when it’s there, it’s missing. As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm retired. I'm harmless now. Good evening WW007. It’s good to see the Reaper relaxing. Either that or he’s doing promo ads for piraña farm franchises. As always ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 32 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Unfortunately there seems to be one thing missing in all of your pictures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 Y’all are ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm retired. I'm harmless now. Which I still think is bullshit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 I'm moving early 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 How can you move part of a year? Are you a wizard? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 In Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm moving early 2022 Hopefully to a wintry one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 17 minutes ago, yoda said: Hopefully to a wintry one A little better assuming we still have winter in the Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 30 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: A little better assuming we still have winter in the Mid Atlantic Inland and above 2k ft. should still be decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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