dailylurker Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: What's the 15 day mean snowfall map look like? Probably same as it did in January lol 93 and disgusting outside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 92/77 with a HI of 106° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 88 here but dp is 75 so it feels pretty gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 Mount Holly AFD. Just like we said- we just cant know at this juncture lol. Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms will impact the area on Thursday with the passage of that cold front. 0-6 km Bulk Shear will be on the order of 35-45 kt, and PWATs will be in excess of 2.5 inches. From there, conditions become quite unsettled going into the Holiday weekend. The front gets hung up just south of the region, and a deep upper trough with a closed upper low will dig in from the west. Another round of showers and possible thunderstorms will impact the area Friday through Saturday. From there, things become even more uncertain. The ECMWF is much more progressive with the passage of that closed low, with it over eastern Canada by Sunday afternoon. The GFS, however, has it over the Great Lakes. Although there may be a break in the precip from Saturday night into Sunday morning, the divergence between the two models makes it hard to determine the pattern for Sunday afternoon through Monday. If the GFS wins out, it will be rainy. If the ECMWF wins out, Sunday and Monday will be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 In the direct sun wet bulb highest of the year, 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: What's the 15 day mean snowfall map look like? 20-30% chance of greater than 3 inches. Just like every time it gets posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 WB EPS 15 day snowfall as requested Oh. And the sun starts rising a minute later every day starting tomorrow…5:45am. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 57 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 20-30% chance of greater than 3 inches. Just like every time it gets posted I think that starts in November and runs through March. The rest of the time the algorithm defaults to zero. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z deterministic…hope for the EURO solution if you want a dry weekend….once EPS comes out will post ensembles. Models don’t do any better in summer than they do in winter… How much precip does Short Pump get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 47 minutes ago, CAPE said: I think that starts in November and runs through March. The rest of the time the algorithm defaults to zero. It should default to zero then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 32 minutes ago, IronTy said: How much precip does Short Pump get? They get pumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: They get pumped Is that better than pummeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Compared to Seattle and Portland these past few days, it will be outright frigid in the area this weekend. Almost like summer 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 It looks like the major global models are finally converging on a similar outcome for the weekend. The 3 ens means look nearly the same now at h5. Euro is still the most progressive and would give the area a mostly dry Sunday, while the GFS and CMC still have some showers/rain moving through with the upper low. The overall trend looks drier as we head through the day Sunday, so by evening hopefully any showers will have exited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 The 0z EURO pummels N MD Friday into Sat btw. Parrs Ridge jack with 6"+ rain totals through Sunday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: The 0z EURO pummels N MD Friday into Sat btw. Parrs Ridge jack with 6"+ rain totals through Sunday AM. Euro cave to Team North America! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: The 0z EURO pummels N MD Friday into Sat btw. Parrs Ridge jack with 6"+ rain totals through Sunday AM. I will plan on a sunny, hot, dry Saturday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro cave to Team North America! Eh, more of a meeting in the middle. I would argue the GFS caved more. Look what it did at h5 just over the last 3 runs. And still time for more adjustments either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: The 0z EURO pummels N MD Friday into Sat btw. Parrs Ridge jack with 6"+ rain totals through Sunday AM. ugh that does not bode well for a Saturday party 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 2 hours ago, mappy said: ugh that does not bode well for a Saturday party Yes! My son's bday party is at the local pool on Saturday afternoon.. May need to reschedule. Looks like a monsoon for us in N MD Saturday morning on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Just came across the Catoctins from Smithsburg to Thurmont. Car thermometer read 88 degrees coming through the Catoctin state park. My car thermometer might be a degree or 2 off but that's pretty darn extreme for this area at 1130 in the morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Just came across the Catoctins from Smithsburg to Thurmont. Car thermometer read 88 degrees coming through the Catoctin state park. My car thermometer might be a degree or 2 off but that's pretty darn extreme for this area at 1130 in the morning.. looked at the reading from my thermometer on the deck and it said 98.8. It does have some indirect sunlight, so i think that is a little high, but just shocked to see that on the readout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 As long as it’s not pouring on Saturday morning, I’m good. We have a home A meet that I’d love for us to get in. Looking more like the heavy stuff could be through by go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 21 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Just came across the Catoctins from Smithsburg to Thurmont. Car thermometer read 88 degrees coming through the Catoctin state park. My car thermometer might be a degree or 2 off but that's pretty darn extreme for this area at 1130 in the morning.. We were very clear, pure blue sky this morning. When I drove to work, it looked like we could get hot fast, but getting a lot more cloud activity at my location now. KNAK still clinging to 82f, but other stations 88,89,90, on the 11:55. Still not humid/obnoxious enough to be considered high summer in central MD, but it's still only June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, mattie g said: As long as it’s not pouring on Saturday morning, I’m good. We have a home A meet that I’d love for us to get in. Looking more like the heavy stuff could be through by go time. Same. Need that to happen so we can hit the road and head to the eastern shore after 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 12z GFS continues to trend towards moving moisture out faster. Sunday is looking mostly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 Mid to upper 70s, with dewpoints in the upper 50s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 27 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z GFS continues to trend towards moving moisture out faster. Sunday is looking mostly dry. Even Saturday looks potentially dryer for areas further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 17 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Even Saturday looks potentially dryer for areas further west Yes. Verbatim there would be some morning showers mostly for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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