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June 2021 Discussion/Obs


CAPE
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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not going to hold my breath. So far every stretch of heat has been muted.

Pretty classic Bermuda High setting up. You should get your fix beginning this weekend. Looks to be some solid heat and humidity through at least the middle of next week, with not much chance of meaningful rainfall for most. A perfectly dull, monotonous, sultry, summertime period. Enjoy!

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It looks like the developing trough to the west and associated front very well may never make it here, but another significant piece of energy drops down late next week on guidance, as the WA ridge breaks down. Probably the next best chance for widespread convection with an actual frontal passage, followed by somewhat cooler temps. Repeating pattern progression..

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_10.png

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That is an impressive upper ridge as advertised. Dwarfs the one in the WA that will bring the "heat" here. As that western ridge amplifies, looks like it will also pinch off the trough to our west and pull it southwestward, as the Atlantic ridge also strengthens downstream. We likely wont see a CFP until next Friday when the next piece of h5 energy drops down, as the longwave pattern de-amplifies and becomes a bit more progressive.

gfs_z500a_namer_21.png

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17 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The heat that the Euro/GFS are spitting out for the pac NW next week is nuts.  Might make a run at the state temp record for Washington (118).

And that heat is stretching pretty far.  Edmonton, which is nearly 400 miles north of the US border, has the following highs forecast for next M-F:  94, 94, 97, 96, and 92, although in reality for them the heat starts tomorrow with temps jumping into the 80s.  There are a lot of people, especially those living in older houses, who don't have residential AC, so there is some serious freaking out going on up there, including from relatives of mine.

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18 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The heat that the Euro/GFS are spitting out for the pac NW next week is nuts.  Might make a run at the state temp record for Washington (118).

It’s unreal to me that those places can torch like that.

I’d personally love to experience heat like that someday, but that’s dangerous stuff. 

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