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June 2021 Discussion/Obs


CAPE
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Looks like a weak coastal low will form along the NC coast and head northward late Thursday into Friday as the "cool" HP to the NE slides off. Probably of little consequence other than right along the coast. The 3km NAM is the most enthusiastic with some heavy showers for the beaches and even a decent chance a bit further inland.

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36 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks like a weak coastal low will form along the NC coast and head northward late Thursday into Friday as the "cool" HP to the NE slides off. Probably of little consequence other than right along the coast. The 3km NAM is the most enthusiastic with some heavy showers for the beaches and even a decent chance a bit further inland.

Atmospheric memory being laid down in June.  This will pay off in spades for Dec :weenie:

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8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Not enough likes for a morning like this.

.25” yesterday over .80” for the two days.

Needed more rain here. Probably mow today and water afterwards in prep for the hot/dry stretch. Keeping the grass higher seems to be helping so far. Usually have significant degradation by the solstice.

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Needed more rain here. Probably mow today and water afterwards in prep for the hot/dry stretch. Keeping the grass higher seems to be helping so far. Usually have significant degradation by the solstice.

Higher mowing should definitely help. I might be reaching for optimism, but the stretch next week looks to me like scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible each day.

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2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Higher mowing should definitely help. I might be reaching for optimism, but the stretch next week looks to me like scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible each day.

It depends on how far west that High gets, and how long it stays there. It's looking like it will block that front from moving east for awhile. There will probably be scattered convection though due to the moisture feed and surface heating, but with weak shear and not much of a trigger, it will be more the pulser type storms. Over here especially the subsidence may be a major inhibitor to getting any afternoon convection going until that front can move closer. It could also just wash out and never make it.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It depends on how far west that High gets, and how long it stays there. It's looking like it will block that front from moving east for awhile. There will probably be scattered convection though due to the moisture feed and surface heating, but with weak shear and not much of a trigger, it will be more the pulser type storms. Over here especially the subsidence may be a major inhibitor to getting any afternoon convection going until that front can move closer. It could also just wash out and never make it.

I’m counting on the front. 

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m counting on the front. 

Me too. Slight chance of getting some showers here later tomorrow as the coastal low passes to the north. For the weekend and probably Monday at least, its back the weakly forced regime with scattered pulser storms in the afternoon. That works out better in areas with terrain enhancement and right along the water with breezes acting as triggers.

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

51! Lots of 40s throughout the region. Soak this in before next week.

 

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Needed more rain here. Probably mow today and water afterwards in prep for the hot/dry stretch. Keeping the grass higher seems to be helping so far. Usually have significant degradation by the solstice.

You two make it sound like we're heading into some brutal death ridge situation.

We're heading into the hottest part of the year, so of course we'll warm up, but this doesn't look to be all that bad.

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6 minutes ago, mattie g said:

 

You two make it sound like we're heading into some brutal death ridge situation.

We're heading into the hottest part of the year, so of course we'll warm up, but this doesn't look to be all that bad.

We all know normal here. 

I just want to see if it's possible to keep my grass all summer. Hasn't happened for awhile. I am on a mission. Need some water though.

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13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We all know normal here. 

I just want to see if it's possible to keep my grass all summer. Hasn't happened for awhile. I am on a mission. Need some water though.

You know your own lawn's situation better than anyone, but I have a section of my back lawn that burns out nearly every summer if I don't keep it watered (which I often don't care enough to do). So far this year it's looking fantastic, but if we do get hot and dry (as in relatively low humidity and blazing sun) for 10+ days, then it's done for.

I guess my view is that until I see a noticeable change in the general (macro) pattern that changes us from relatively mild and wet to hot and dry, I won't even bat an eye. If we get a week out from here having been hot and dry and see more of the same in the extended, then I'll take things more "seriously."

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10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

You know your own lawn's situation better than anyone, but I have a section of my back lawn that burns out nearly every summer if I don't keep it watered (which I often don't care enough to do). So far this year it's looking fantastic, but if we do get hot and dry (as in relatively low humidity and blazing sun) for 10+ days, then it's done for.

I guess my view is that until I see a noticeable change in the general (macro) pattern that changes us from relatively mild and wet to hot and dry, I won't even bat an eye. If we get a week out from here having been hot and dry and see more of the same in the extended, then I'll take things more "seriously."

If it doesn't rain for like 10 days with typical heat, no amount of watering will help with all the trees I have, and I would have to give up. So far we have only had these relatively brief periods of heat followed by periods like we have now, and no long dry spells(for most). Not seeing strong indications of a shift in the general pattern, so maybe we can keep this sequence going a bit longer.

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