WxUSAF Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 21 hours ago, CAPE said: Maybe Today’s GFS and Euro stall the front farther west. GGEM brings it over us. probably some rain eventually, but if the front stalls to the west, could get a few HHH days with southerly flow around the Bermuda high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Today’s GFS and Euro stall the front farther west. GGEM brings it over us. probably some rain eventually, but if the front stalls to the west, could get a few HHH days with southerly flow around the Bermuda high. Yeah that WAR looks pretty stout on guidance, and not in any hurry to move. Southerly/sw flow between the developing trough to the west and that ridge will make it sultry here again for the weekend and into next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah that WAR looks pretty stout on guidance, and not in any hurry to move. Southerly/sw flow between the developing trough to the west and that ridge will make it sultry here again for the weekend and into next week. Not liking the trends for East of 95 in my region. 7 day precip totals going down. Not surprised after two seperate busts last week, especially Saturday's failure. Atlantic SSTs reinforce the idea of an expansive and growing WAR in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 A great sky-show Monday evening as storms moved in. But only 0.37" IMBY, the majority of which fell in a 15-min period. 4.62" for the month so far, not too shabby! (and I'm convinced my rain gauge is low-balling) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Still muggy but not awful imby before the rain moves in later. NAM twins want to drop half to 1 inch today imby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 17 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Today’s GFS and Euro stall the front farther west. GGEM brings it over us. probably some rain eventually, but if the front stalls to the west, could get a few HHH days with southerly flow around the Bermuda high. And today’s 06z drops 3” IMBY with relatively normal to slightly below normal temps for the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 .41” from the evening storm and light showers now. Good day for a book. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 0.64" total from both T-storms last evening/night. Mostly scraped by to our north. However, my boss reports that they have tree limbs fallen all over their Cape St. Claire neighborhood, all from a 20-30 min storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 0.5 total from the storms yesterday. Looks like some decent stratiform rain moving in from the west so hopefully places that missed yesterday get some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 Storms missed just north last night. Looks like any decent heavier showers will be just SE of my yard today. Might pick up a quarter inch, but the latest mesos look pretty pathetic for here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 Similar to last week, a couple stellar days after today, and Friday should be nice too but transitioning to more humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 32 minutes ago, CAPE said: Similar to last week, a couple stellar days after today, and Friday should be nice too but transitioning to more humid. tomorrow night's softball game is going to be AH-MAZING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 3 hours ago, mattie g said: And today’s 06z drops 3” IMBY with relatively normal to slightly below normal temps for the run. It’s waffling. Euro holds it way far back and we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Almost an inch from storms last night. My lawn is happy. Looks like more rain incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s waffling. Euro holds it way far back and we torch. This is probably how it will go. WA ridge that sets up in that position this time of year usually flexes and doesn't break down too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Some heavy rain earlier, still raining with a bit of thunder. The real soaking looks to start in a little bit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 4 hours ago, CAPE said: This is probably how it will go. WA ridge that sets up in that position this time of year usually flexes and doesn't break down too quick. Drier trends from the WPC in the 6 to 7 day window. Meanwhile expect a continued faster than normal rise in the surf zone temps next week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 I'll take the over on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 about .30" today -- near 2" since yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 0.30" today. Nothing yesterday. Going to be running the sprinkler over the next week the way things are looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 22 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'll take the over on that map. Not if this verifies. I would take the under, but it has zero for my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 Good synopsis of the upcoming period from Mount Holly- A typical summer pattern develops for the long term as a Bermuda High becomes established offshore and a slow moving trough develops over the Great Lakes. This is a classic southwest flow regime which is likely to be in place for at least several days beginning the end of this week and heading into next week. The result will be a transition from the dry and cooler weather during the middle of this week to a sustained warm and humid pattern, especially by the time we get to the weekend. From Saturday onward, we will mostly be looking at highs in the mid 80s to near 90. This is nothing atypical for the season, but combined with the increasing humidity, we may flirt with Heat Advisory levels at times during the period. Rain chances in this pattern are quite uncertain at the moment. It will depend heavily on how fast a cold front to the west approaches as Great Lakes troughing slowly moves eastward and/or starts to lift out. Model guidance has a spread of several days on when this front will move through, or if it even will at all as opposed to just washing out. My general thinking is that rain chances will gradually increase from Saturday onward, especially to the west, but that overall there will be a lot of dry hours through the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not if this verifies. I would take the under, but it has zero for my yard. That set-up with higher heights further North and East looks like last summer's theme, if i remember correctly. May not be super hot, but the night's elevated lows will have it appear more nasty, and soupy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 2 hours ago, frd said: That set-up with higher heights further North and East looks like last summer's theme, if i remember correctly. May not be super hot, but the night's elevated lows will have it appear more nasty, and soupy. That post was a 5 day ens mean for the upper ridge. Look where the Euro op has the surface high by late next week. This would be nasty, and that trough/front to the west would have little impact this far east. Probably just wash out. The only storms would likely be terrain aided pulsers further inland for the most part. Hopefully the Canadians are more correct, and the ridge breaks down/ moves further east. I wouldn't count on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Ready for some sustained hot weather. My pool is ice cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Ready for some sustained hot weather. My pool is ice cold. You might just get your wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Refreshing out right now. Windows open sleeping in June is always a bonus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 GFS now fairly dry thru July 4th. Next week looks miserable re heat though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Feels amazing outside 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 1.3" rain here over two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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