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June 2021 Discussion/Obs


CAPE
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23 minutes ago, mappy said:

damp, drizzly and foggy. perfect for storms, right? 

overcast until noon, 2 hours sun, 30% meso chance, pity watch, broken line with gusts in Frederick and DC gets heavy cicada shell accumulations

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3 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

Bone dry.  Glad I watered everything last evening.  Starting to think no rain at all here before going into the hot pattern coming up.

Well, there's this -- we should have 0% chance of spinners.  ;) 

40 minutes ago, H2O said:

overcast until noon, 2 hours sun, 30% meso chance, pity watch, broken line with gusts in Frederick and DC gets heavy cicada shell accumulations

74/70 right now...with, surprisingly, a few weak breaks of sun through the overcast here at home.

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1 hour ago, H2O said:

overcast until noon, 2 hours sun, 30% meso chance, pity watch, broken line with gusts in Frederick and DC gets heavy cicada shell accumulations

This is SO going to verify...

 

 

 

 

 

...:weenie:

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2/15/0 on the afternoon SWODY1 update.

Quote

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 03 2021

   Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The main severe threat area today is over parts of the Mid-Atlantic
   and Northeast States this afternoon and evening, with thunderstorm
   damaging winds the primary concern.

   ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States...
   An upper-level trough over the Lower Ohio Valley late this morning
   will continue northeastward with strengthening southwesterly winds
   aloft and the onset of height falls along the Eastern Seaboard this
   afternoon. While multicells capable of localized wind damage will be
   possible across a broad portion of the East either side of the
   Appalachians, the most severe-storm favorable combination of
   vertical shear and instability will likely materialize this
   afternoon through early evening along the Virginia Blue Ridge
   vicinity to the Delmarva and southeast Pennsylvania and parts of New
   Jersey where organized/sustained multicells and some transient
   supercells can be expected. Isolated damaging winds are expected to
   be the most common severe risk, but strengthening low-level
   shear/SRH and a moist environment could support the possibility of a
   tornado or two across the region.

 

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31 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Lol.  .05" in the bucket.

Goodness, this place is actually just as bad as Stephens City when it comes to convection.  Thank God it's wetter synoptically and significantly cooler.  But, it's frustratingly dry in summer.  

Ahhh.. that's what I like to hear lol. 

Warm and humid and the sun has been baking all day. Hopefully my area does better then the high deserts. 

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

No rain here yesterday afternoon through the overnight. Maybe some scattered stuff around today.

Then we ridge.

Currently 72. LWX highlighting in their morning disco that models are targeting FXBG and lower Potomac today for potential severe, though still possible up/down I-95 corridor.

Also, you know what's good for battling the ridging and the heat, @CAPE?

giphy.gif

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4 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Currently 72. LWX highlighting in their morning disco that models are targeting FXBG and lower Potomac today for potential severe, though still possible up/down I-95 corridor.

Also, you know what's good for battling the ridging and the heat, @CAPE?

giphy.gif

Ill drink to that shock top bebe GIF - Find on GIFER

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