frd Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 4 hours ago, CAPE said: EPS and GEFS suggest the front will clear in time for a nice weekend, esp Sunday. No guarantee though, given the setup. GFS and CMC op runs both dig the h5 energy further west and close it off, then bring it east later, so we stay on the active side with rain chances into next weekend. Euro op doesn't dig it as much or as far west and the dry/cooler air gets here quicker. WPC trending wetter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 27, 2021 Author Share Posted June 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z euro goes more stall Looks like it took a step towards the GFS with more of a cut off h5 look. That's all I can glean from TT. More rain next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/26/2021 at 12:32 PM, CAPE said: Everyone should be rooting for the 12z GFS progression. Multiple rounds of rain late week with the slow moving front then it clears early Saturday. Below normal temps for 4th of July. No 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 27, 2021 Author Share Posted June 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: No Well you aren't getting your beloved face melting 100. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 19 hours ago, MN Transplant said: The Euro is trying to set or tie the all-time record for Canada on Tuesday. Currently 113 from 1937. Didn’t need to wait. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Looks like it took a step towards the GFS with more of a cut off h5 look. That's all I can glean from TT. More rain next weekend? PWAT party at your house 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 27, 2021 Author Share Posted June 27, 2021 48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: PWAT party at your house Bring it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Ok so I need an update. Have we had 1) too much rain or 2) not enough rain? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok so I need an update. Have we had 1) too much rain or 2) not enough rain? @CAPE says, “No, my lawn is dying.” But, @CAPE says, “Yes, my mosquito pond is thriving.” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 58 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok so I need an update. Have we had 1) too much rain or 2) not enough rain? It depends on the level of deb to which one aspires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 I just don’t see any lengthy heat surge in July. This high plains High pressure has visited us 3 times and really has not yet moved southeast and set up as a Bermuda high. It’s going to be quite hot thru Wednesday and then another round of 80-85 highs and 50’s and 60’s lows thru July 4th. For DC if the scorching pattern has not set up by July 4th then it infrequently does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 1 hour ago, mattie g said: It depends on the level of deb to which one aspires. Ain’t it so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 8 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: @CAPE says, “No, my lawn is dying.” But, @CAPE says, “Yes, my mosquito pond is thriving.” Lawn is hanging in there. The heat this week will provide a crucial test of its durability. No mosquitos at all. "Bog" dried up on schedule, like the days when we used to have normal weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 8 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok so I need an update. Have we had 1) too much rain or 2) not enough rain? 3) just right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 For late week/weekend, GFS still has a closed ULL that slowly moves eastward, while the Euro has an open trough that is more progressive. GEFS looks more like the EPS/Euro op. If the GFS is more correct, the weekend would feature a continuation of showers and remain on the humid side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 we just don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 47 minutes ago, H2O said: we just don't know we simply can't know. weather53 can explain why in detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 ugh, hoping that rain clears by saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Yeah, gfs looks less than ideal for the 4th weekend. Keep that ish outta here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 12z gfs and GGEM not backing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 On 6/23/2021 at 7:59 AM, nw baltimore wx said: I’m counting on the front. Looks like this afternoon will be strike one on any thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z gfs and GGEM not backing down. Team Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 WPC still bullish , if anything the coverage looks even larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 There should be plenty of water for the weeds after the lawns all fry over the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: There should be plenty of water for the weeds after the lawns all fry over the next few days. Euro took a small step toward a slower more cutoff solution. Digs more at 500 and pops a surface low near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro took a small step toward a slower more cutoff solution. Digs more at 500 and pops a surface low near NYC. It actually looks like the 12z from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 WB 12Z deterministic…hope for the EURO solution if you want a dry weekend….once EPS comes out will post ensembles. Models don’t do any better in summer than they do in winter… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 WB 12Z ensembles. EPS mean is pretty wet until Sunday am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 What's the 15 day mean snowfall map look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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