June 2021 Discussion/Obs

[frd]

27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I see Mt Holly mentioned it in their AM disco, but they weren't necessarily buying it lol.

Some guidance (GFS/HRRR) develops some convection this morning in Delmarva and southward, where stronger differential heating may occur from the retreating low cloud deck (and also potential influence from developing sea/bay breezes). However, this seems overdone given the existing pattern, particularly given the lack of a stronger larger-scale lifting mechanism.

There is activity on the radar in that area. 

Of course so far it has screwed me. Missing to the North and the South.

However more rogue cells developing so maybe there is still a chance.

Dewey might get a storm  soon as a broken line moves towards the lower DE beaches 

 

 

[CAPE]

More stuff developing just to the south. Moisture laden dark clouds looking in that direction. Maybe I an catch another quick downpour. Probably little chance for rain here until later in the week after today. Bermuda high subsidence.

[CAPE]

Getting a tropical downpour here currently.

[CAPE]

Looks like high temps may bust low here if it doesn't clear up in the next hour or so. Not hating the clouds and rain at all. Pleasant surprise. One less day of blazing sun and heat.

[CAPE]

Everyone should be rooting for the 12z GFS progression. Multiple rounds of rain late week with the slow moving front then it clears early Saturday. Below normal temps for 4th of July.

 

[CAPE]

^Ofc EJ would prefer 100/80 rather than the GFS advertised 78/55 for the 4th.

I have some doubts about the WA ridge breaking down/moving out that quickly this time of year. Previous runs had the front stalled through next weekend with continuation of warm/humid and chances of rain. CMC still has that scenario.

[CAPE]

Finally sunny here now. Picked up 0.32" of rain this morning.

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

^Ofc EJ would prefer 100/80 rather than the GFS advertised 78/55 for the 4th.

I have some doubts about the WA ridge breaking down/moving out that quickly this time of year. Previous runs had it stalled through next weekend with continuation of warm/humid and chances of rain. CMC still has that scenario.

And previous runs before the previous runs had it clearing by the weekend. You just never know.

[CAPE]

Just now, mattie g said:

And previous runs before the previous runs had it clearing by the weekend. You just never know.

You never do with op runs at range, as all of us here are well aware of.

12z GEFS is supportive of the op, fwiw.

[CAPE]

79 here. I doubt its going to make it to 88. Given its mid afternoon and the ground is wet, evaporation is going to inhibit surface temp rise.

[CAPE]

Not hot, but it sure is sultry.

82/76 

[AlexD1990]

Not hot, but it sure is sultry.
82/76 

I was just gonna say. It's oppressive out there

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[CAPE]

Ridge city. 

 

[George BM]

The short term section of the AFD issued by SEW... yeap.

 

000
FXUS66 KSEW 262245
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
345 PM PDT Sat Jun 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Record breaking heat is already underway as the
strong ridge overhead intensifies over the next few days.
Temperatures will peak tomorrow and Monday before meaningful
onshore flow acts to cool down the region on Tuesday. Temperatures
will not likely cool back down to normal for this time of year and
will remain above average through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Record breaking
temperatures have been recorded across western Washington this
afternoon, yet it is still early on in the heat event. With Sea-
Tac recording 99 degrees, it becomes the hottest June day on
record, but the next two days look to once again break those
records and then likely breaking into all time record territory.
Relief from the hot temperatures are certainly not likely
overnight in terms of the overnight lows over the next two days
either, as record high low temperatures in the 70s are expected.
Coastal locations are also going to be hot, but likely peaking on
Sunday as the thermal trough along the coast is going to go
through the area on Monday and help initiate some cooling onshore
flow. Monday will likely be the hottest day for the interior as
that thermal trough sets up more over the I-5 corridor. It is
quite unbelievable to have 108-110 in the forecast for Monday in
and around SeaTac, but that is a testament to the strength of this
ridge. Furthermore, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast the
nuances for an event such as this one for which there is no good
analog or comparison for in recent climatological recollection.

The excessive heat warning remains in effect for western
Washington. Those without access to proper cooling and hydration
will remain most at risk for heat illness and related
complications through the weekend and into early next week. Check
with local municipalities and county authorities for information
on cooling centers for those without air conditioning. Here are
some additional tips for staying safe in the heat:

-Avoid strenuous activity and limit time outdoors, especially in
 the peak heating of the day. Without overnight relief from the
 heat, a general time frame to avoid the outdoors is between 9am-
 6pm.

-Make sure to stay hydrated and to drink enough water before
 feeling thirsty.

-Check on family, friends, neighbors, and those who do not have
 access to proper cooling.

[MN Transplant]

The Euro is trying to set or tie the all-time record for Canada on Tuesday.  Currently 113 from 1937.

[WxWatcher007]

54 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The Euro is trying to set or tie the all-time record for Canada on Tuesday.  Currently 113 from 1937.

Extraordinary 

[Vice-Regent]

1937 was before we had aerosols en masse. It's all starting to make sense now... interesting nonetheless.

[fourseasons]

8 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The Euro is trying to set or tie the all-time record for Canada on Tuesday.  Currently 113 from 1937.

May I ask where specifically?  I know both Edmonton and Vancouver have forecasted highs of 102 on Wednesday, and that's before the heat index.  To be honest, I'm really concerned for my parents right now.

Edit to add my mom informs me it's somewhere in British Columbia with a forecasted high of 49C, which is 120F.

[BlizzardNole]

I read where only 44% of homes in the Seattle area have AC.  Not good with forecasted high of 100 today and 108 tomorrow.  Tacoma has 101/111 and Portland 112/112.  My gawd.

Another cloudy start today, but it's gonna be a warm one later!

[fourseasons]

13 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I read where only 44% of homes in the Seattle area have AC.  Not good with forecasted high of 100 today and 108 tomorrow.  Tacoma has 101/111 and Portland 112/112.  My gawd.

Another cloudy start today, but it's gonna be a warm one later!

It's 40% in British Columbia. 

That's what makes this so dangerous:  A major heat wave covering multiple states, provinces, and territories (it's going to be 84 in Yellowknife on Wednesday; that's practically unheard of) where residential AC isn't widespread.  Having a furnace in good working order is more important.

[WxWatcher007]

Not sure if they have AC, but I hope your parents get through it ok @fourseasons. Just keep checking in on them. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EPS, respite from the heat still on track for late week with hopefully some needed rains.

[fourseasons]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not sure if they have AC, but I hope your parents get through it ok @fourseasons. Just keep checking in on them. 

Thanks.

They don't, but my sister who lives nearby does and I've already preached to her about not setting it too low.  I'm most concerned about my mom since my dad can flee to the basement but she isn't as mobile.

Edit:  My 15-year-old nephew has assured me he will be keeping an eye on them.  I'm a proud Auntie.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Sure it will change and ultimately be sig warmer, but my forecast is a high of 74F on Saturday!  Would be perfect for 4th celebration. 

[MN Transplant]

6 hours ago, fourseasons said:

May I ask where specifically?  I know both Edmonton and Vancouver have forecasted highs of 102 on Wednesday, and that's before the heat index.  To be honest, I'm really concerned for my parents right now.

Edit to add my mom informs me it's somewhere in British Columbia with a forecasted high of 49C, which is 120F.

Kamloops, BC on the euro is now 108/111/111/112 for today through Wednesday.

[MN Transplant]

And locally, humidity is gross.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS, respite from the heat still on track for late week with hopefully some needed rains.

Drought?

[CAPE]

54 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Sure it will change and ultimately be sig warmer, but my forecast is a high of 74F on Saturday!  Would be perfect for 4th celebration. 

EPS and GEFS suggest the front will clear in time for a nice weekend, esp Sunday. No guarantee though, given the setup. GFS and CMC op runs both dig the h5 energy further west and close it off, then bring it east later, so we stay on the active side with rain chances into next weekend. Euro op doesn't dig it as much or as far west and the dry/cooler air gets here quicker.

 

[CAPE]

87/73

Could be worse, and it will be the next few days.

[WxUSAF]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

EPS and GEFS suggest the front will clear in time for a nice weekend, esp Sunday. No guarantee though, given the setup. GFS and CMC op runs both dig the h5 energy further west and close it off, then bring it east later, so we stay on the active side with rain chances into next weekend. Euro op doesn't dig it as much or as far west and the dry/cooler air gets here quicker.

 

12z euro goes more stall