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June 2021 Discussion/Obs


CAPE
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Guidance is generally backing off on the more widespread heavy rain potential for tomorrow into the weekend. Trend is for the front to push through faster and slow/stall further south, with HP nosing down from the NE. Would make for a really nice weekend, but for areas that miss the scattered pulsed convection in the weakly forced/weak flow regime, rain chances might come down to the frontal passage itself. Looks like any wave(s) that develop along the stalled boundary will mostly impact areas to the south.

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  On 6/9/2021 at 8:55 AM, CAPE said:

Guidance is generally backing off on the more widespread heavy rain potential for tomorrow into the weekend. Trend is for the front to push through faster and slow/stall further south, with HP nosing down from the NE. Would make for a really nice weekend, but for areas that miss the scattered pulsed convection in the weakly forced/weak flow regime, rain chances might come down to the frontal passage itself. Looks like any wave(s) that develop along the stalled boundary will mostly impact areas to the south.

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Drought??

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I had a few drops at some point overnight. Registered nothing in the rain gauge. Probably a slightly better chance over here today, but again not really much of any forcing to initiate lift, so most likely storms will pop due to terrain influences, and along local boundaries. Maybe right along the bay and the immediate coast if a sea breeze develops.

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