CAPE Posted May 31, 2021 Share Posted May 31, 2021 Heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 31, 2021 Author Share Posted May 31, 2021 Valid Tuesday June 08, 2021 to Monday June 14, 2021 US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT May 31 2021 Synopsis: Model guidance shows mid-level high pressure established across the East at the beginning of the forecast period, bringing with it the potential for record high temperatures for the Northeast. This high pressure is forecast to lessen over the course of the week, keeping temperatures warm, but less concerning from a health perspective. Periods of enhanced onshore flow out of the western Gulf of Mexico have occurred across portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley over the last month, with another event possible at the start of Week-2. Locally heavy rainfall and river flooding may result across portions of the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley. Mid-level low pressure is forecast over the Bering Sea and near the Pacific Coast throughout Week-2, but given the ongoing dry season for both locations no associated precipitation hazards are anticipated. Hazards Moderate risk of excessive heat for portions of the Northeast, Tue-Wed, Jun 8-9. Slight risk of excessive heat for portions of the Northern and Central Plains, Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, Tue-Sat, Jun 8-12. Slight risk of heavy rain for portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, Tue Jun 8. Flooding possible for portions of East Texas and Louisiana. Detailed Summary For Thursday June 03 - Monday June 07: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards For Tuesday June 08 - Monday June 14: At the beginning of Week-2 consensus exists among the ensemble means of the GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models regarding anomalous ridging located near Montreal. This setup is likely to help drive the 582 dm isohypse into Canada, a sign of potentially record-breaking heat during early to mid-June for the Northeast. The National Blend of Models reflects this, despite the substantial forecast lead time, with forecast highs (and associated daily records) on June 8th of 90F for Burlington, VT (91F), 91F for Bangor, ME (92F), and 88F for Caribou, ME (87F). Calibrated reforecast guidance shows a 10-20% chance of record highs from roughly Boston northward, supporting a moderate risk of excessive heat on June 8th and 9th. Reforecast guidance also indicates a slight risk of excessive heat stretching from the Dakotas eastward to the Atlantic, with the southern extent as far south as the U.S. capital region, for June 8th-12th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 31, 2021 Author Share Posted May 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 31, 2021 Author Share Posted May 31, 2021 Poor NE lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 31, 2021 Author Share Posted May 31, 2021 Mount Holly AFD on the heavy rain potential this week- The pattern will quickly become more active heading into Wednesday night and Thursday. Expect a long southwesterly fetch generated by a broad dome of high pressure over the Western Atlantic and a deepening upper level trough that moves over the eastern CONUS. This will push a PWAT surge in over the region and between these features, we`ll have a slow moving/stagnant frontal system that be the trigger for fairly widespread shower activity heading into Thursday evening. We`ve opted to including mention of heavy rain at this time after collaborating with neighboring offices and with WPC. WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook is carrying a D3 Marginal Risk and this is well supported over the PHI forecast area. From a synoptic point of view we`re looking at the potential for a Maddox Synoptic pattern to develop over the Mid Atlantic. Guidance at the surface has been a bit inconsistent, however aloft, the guidance looks to be in decent agreement. We`ll have a slow moving trough aloft with a deep moisture plume ahead. In the mid levels, BUFKit shows deep southwesterly moist flow from basically the surface up to 300mb with a slight veering profile. At the surface we`ll have a slow moving/stalled frontal system over the region. So when you add up those features, along with deep warm cloud depths, small MBE vectors, PWAT`s approaching 1.7-1.9" which would be in close to the 90th percentile should that verify, and storms that develop on the boundary rather than move off, the potential exists to see some localized flooding Thursday night. We`ll certainly need to keep an eye out for trends to see how things shake out over the next couple of guidance cycles but for at least the last 4 guidance cycles the potential has been there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 Happy Climatological Summer! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 28 minutes ago, mappy said: Happy Climatological Summer! And it will feel like summer in earnest by this weekend, and especially next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: And it will feel like summer in earnest by this weekend, and especially next week. Good. Pool was 76 last week before the rain, got down to 68 afterwards, need some sun and warmth to warm that baby back up so momma can enjoy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 16 hours ago, CAPE said: Poor NE lol. I'll take NW Montana for the win please 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 Who released the fog machines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: I'll take NW Montana for the win please A tad nippy, but that would still be late morning out there. Hard to turn down highs in the 50s/60s for me though lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 12z GFS has <0.5” for @mattie g through D13 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 21 hours ago, CAPE said: Poor NE lol. That is one funny looking map -- MD to FL basking in low to mid 80s while northern New England bakes in upper 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 18 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: That is one funny looking map -- MD to FL basking in low to mid 80s while northern New England bakes in upper 90s Just the orientation of the ridge. It wont last long up there- probs a day or 2. We are gonna bake down here next week for multiple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 12z GFS has low to mid 90s for DC all next week then tops it off with 100 the following Monday lol. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 This is what almost everyone here has been jonesing for. I know y'all wont get tired of it over the next 3 months or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z GFS has low to mid 90s for DC all next week then tops it off with 100 the following Monday lol. YESSS 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GFS has <0.5” for @mattie g through D13 DrOugHt11!1!!1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: This is what almost everyone here has been jonesing for. I know y'all wont get tired of it over the next 3 months or so. bring it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 1 hour ago, mattie g said: DrOugHt11!1!!1 Euro even drier through D10. Going to get crispy again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 Marginal risk for excessive rain tomorrow then we bake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: Marginal risk for excessive rain tomorrow then we bake. It us. One of the things we just do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 15 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Euro even drier through D10. Going to get crispy again We flood before we crisp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 Was 58 for a low. Last comfortably cool morning we will have for awhile. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 18 hours ago, CAPE said: 12z GFS has low to mid 90s for DC all next week then tops it off with 100 the following Monday lol. 18 hours ago, CAPE said: This is what almost everyone here has been jonesing for. I know y'all wont get tired of it over the next 3 months or so. NOT from this corner, YUCK! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 It’s going to be about 90 for a few days - beyond that, who knows? The freaking drama... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 17 minutes ago, mattie g said: It’s going to be about 90 for a few days - beyond that, who knows? The freaking drama... Beyond that? This is it for the next 5 months lol. Sun trying to peak out 70 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 2, 2021 Author Share Posted June 2, 2021 Mean upper ridge shifts west on the ens means by mid month. Probably would bring us just typical heat and not as humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Mean upper ridge shifts west on the ens means by mid month. Probably would bring us just typical heat and not as humid. mmmmm... NW flow events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Currently 86, partly cloudy, though it's been mostly sunny since late morning. So much for cloudy and only 80 today...but I'll take it. #NotComplaining 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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