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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

WORD!   It may not be getting the attention it needs?

Perhaps owing to the heat business in the foreground, but that looks impressive to me as the Euro descends height falls at the same time it accelerates/ ..or defaults ( actually) the entire NY and 6-state region inside a right/side exit/entrance jet field. 

With all this f'n SB CAPE, the Mlv lapse rates and the MU CAPE ending up in situ in growth. 

I wanna say, tornado 'tomography' or cross-sectioning in our neck of the woods has climate precedence for when troughs dive S ...not necessarily arrive from the W like in the Plains.

That means the W boundary layer flow is actually in a positive (favorable) directional shear. And favorably also the marine component is pushed over toward France lol.  Tomorrow and actually Thursday too, as the Euro and membership keep the trough axis W until late that day.

Looks more like macro bursts and derecho than Tor. 

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15 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wheres Wiz?

 

 

5 hours ago, yoda said:

Surprised @weatherwiz hasn't been posting about it lol

 

4 hours ago, PowderBeard said:

Waiting on wiz's severe thread for tomorrow after a boring spring.

The Big Short GIFs | Tenor

I made a post about Wednesday yesterday morning. 

I had thought there was a chance to get some steeper mid-level lapse rates but models kinda backed off on that. Obviously SBCAPE is going to be through the roof given the high temps/dewpoints but as Scott said, MLCAPE is what you want to look at. The NAM is generating insane MLCAPE values tomorrow but its also spitting out Td's into the mid-70's. Now is that possible...it certainly isn't uncommon to see dewpoint pooling ahead of an approaching front but I'm not totally sold yet on dews that high (but I haven't looked in detail to say this for sure). 

One issue I see with for tomorrow is the strongest shear being displaced from the strongest instability, however, there is enough shear across northern/central New England to certainly warrant some supercell potential there. 

Given tall/skinny CAPE profiles and high PWATS greatest risks will be 

1) Vivid/frequent CG lightning 

2) Localized flash flooding (poor drainage) 

3) Localized damaging wind gusts/hail

I'll do a thread later...and include Thursday. Thursday could be decent 

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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm counting down the days until winter

You realize that just because you said this ( and this cannot be proven as causal but absolutely is, mind you - ) that count-down is going to take a minimum of 600 days because next winter is now consequentially never going to happen.  

Nice goin'

Lol

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks more like macro bursts and derecho than Tor. 

Yeah details details...
 

Just an orbital look - S diving height falls into an antecedent CAPE enriched environment.   Not a bad canvas. 

 

Frankly, I'll just be happy if it water-boards rain rates here for a couple hours.   Who the f cares if it does that on Wed or Thurs...  need rain -

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

 

 

I made a post about Wednesday yesterday morning. 

I had thought there was a chance to get some steeper mid-level lapse rates but models kinda backed off on that. Obviously SBCAPE is going to be through the roof given the high temps/dewpoints but as Scott said, MLCAPE is what you want to look at. The NAM is generating insane MLCAPE values tomorrow but its also spitting out Td's into the mid-70's. Now is that possible...it certainly isn't uncommon to see dewpoint pooling ahead of an approaching front but I'm not totally sold yet on dews that high (but I haven't looked in detail to say this for sure). 

One issue I see with for tomorrow is the strongest shear being displaced from the strongest instability, however, there is enough shear across northern/central New England to certainly warrant some supercell potential there. 

Given tall/skinny CAPE profiles and high PWATS greatest risks will be 

1) Vivid/frequent CG lightning 

2) Localized flash flooding (poor drainage) 

3) Localized damaging wind gusts/hail

I'll do a thread later...and include Thursday. Thursday could be decent 

Agreed on the northern/central NE for best as of now. There is an interesting combination of ingredients coming together at the right time in southeast Mass to keep an eye on. 

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We haven't hit 100 in a decade either

Excessive dews keeping it down a bit? A lot of the older 100+ days seemed to require lower dews mixing down. Now we do 98/75 like it's nbd. When we actually get the right setup with dry air (July 2011) we shatter records.

We'll eventually get another prime setup day like the PAC NW just had and we'll see numerous 104-106F in the hot spots.

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10 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Agreed on the northern/central NE for best as of now. There is an interesting combination of ingredients coming together at the right time in southeast Mass to keep an eye on. 

There may be some localized influences which could increase the potential for a tornado out that way

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Excessive dews keeping it down a bit? A lot of the older 100+ days seemed to require lower dews mixing down. Now we do 98/75 like it's nbd. When we actually get the right setup with dry air (July 2011) we shatter records.

We'll eventually get another prime setup day like the PAC NW just had and we'll see numerous 104-106F in the hot spots.

heat and temperature are two different things ;) 

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20 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Portland wouldn't have hit 116⁰ if the dewpoints were in the mid to upper 70s. I'm sure our dewpoints were not this excessive prior to our CC Era and it weren't for the dews now, we would have hit 100⁰ countless times over the past decade.

There's definitely Meteorology/physics to support the notion that drier atmosphere's can warm quicker, but ...that is more for diurnal response. 

The problem here in new England is that even in drier BL days, we tend to have more cloud residue ..or even just atmospheric contaminants that we may not even see as much, but for being downwind of continental affairs, man and nature.  Be it high clouds that seem negligible... any filtration at all dims critical amounts of solar radiation - even if not readily observed.  2 or 3% isn't noticeable necessarily as atmospheric contaminants even without visible cloud interruptions, but cuts into that solar budget on the day causing the difference in 98 versus 102 for marginal initial conditions.  

That is all true, but what is going on out west/NW more so transcends this, as uniquely super-structured parametrics converged on on that civility out there.  This could be a rare return rate scenario, but one that happened to take place in an era that has verified "synergistically" enhancing heat waves, Globally, over the last 15 to 2000 years.  put it that way -

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