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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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BOX was amusing in AFD with " ..absolute soup bowl " in SNE tonight.

I think an upgrade to Exc Warning tomorrow imho based up trends today.  95 to 98 tomorrow favors the high end of that range, and would be 2 ticks higher than sites today as a reasonable outlook due to higher launch pad and thermal momentum off today.  The torridity may have greater theta-e density ..i.e, insultingly 73 where was 71 today. Not sure I see how the sounding is drier -

20C at 850 is typical 36 C at T1 sigmas, which does not include the slope temperature at the bottom of the sounding - why is everyone f'ing fighting this thing.. Suit ur selves

- anyway, Advisories cover it too so yeah, it's splitting hairs.   I noticed Jersey office bumped ...

Looked at the Euro... Sunday may be decent in the afternoon given a trend to bump that trough axis east of the region.  Sometimes the models can be too pessimistic in NW backsides...  Also, the front of that fiasco ( thur afternoon) looks interesting for convection to me. 

 

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I hope we're keeping in my it is at the receiving end of an urban heat island spanning some 30 deg of wind direction dial  ?   maybe when the wind is right - may be worth it to expand that study to remove other factors, perhaps then isolate the instrumentation as a cause -

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36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

BOX was amusing in AFD with " ..absolute soup bowl " in SNE tonight.

I think an upgrade to Exc Warning tomorrow imho based up trends today.  95 to 98 tomorrow favors the high end of that range, and would be 2 ticks higher than sites today as a reasonable outlook due to higher launch pad and thermal momentum off today.  The torridity may have greater theta-e density ..i.e, insultingly 73 where was 71 today. Not sure I see how the sounding is drier -

20C at 850 is typical 36 C at T1 sigmas, which does not include the slope temperature at the bottom of the sounding - why is everyone f'ing fighting this thing.. Suit ur selves

- anyway, Advisories cover it too so yeah, it's splitting hairs.   I noticed Jersey office bumped ...

Looked at the Euro... Sunday may be decent in the afternoon given a trend to bump that trough axis east of the region.  Sometimes the models can be too pessimistic in NW backsides...  Also, the front of that fiasco ( thur afternoon) looks interesting for convection to me. 

 

It’s out of here by Sat AM . Could see beaches and coasts with sun while interior pops CU in the still humid airmass 

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is. When you look at that website Gladstone family, and then look at the departures how Boston is running way higher than anybody else it all adds up.

When we bitched about it running warm years ago...MADIS confirmed the drift. Then we noticed it looked better...MADIS confirmed. Then you noticed it was getting out of line again...MADIS confirmed.

image.png

June '18 to Feb '20...ran 2F warm.
Feb '20 to Feb '21...close to expected
Feb '21 to present...running 1-2F warm

There's a lot more drift in the high temps since the end of 2019 too. Makes me wonder if there's some radiation issues. Using the CON black mulch?

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21 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Do you have slacks and a sweater on? I find the dews lovers tend to have skinny granny metabolisms.

LOL, no. I am not a big guy though, maybe if I was I'd think differently.

Another good GFS run for the weekend. We pray.

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