June, 2021 Discussion

[dendrite]

Already 77° off of 70.8°…torching early. Birds have been struggling, but they need to cope. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hopefully there’s fireworks deep into each weekend night 

lol…I don’t think they’ll be doing them. I just want the rain for the plants/trees. It’s been a tough year planting and trying to establish new pawpaw trees. They like moist well drained soil and I’ve been having to drag the hose 100ft out there each evening to water. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol…I don’t think they’ll be doing them. I just want the rain for the plants/trees. It’s been a tough year planting and trying to establish new pawpaw trees. They like moist well drained soil and I’ve been having to drag the hose 100ft out there each evening to water. 

Wonder if the gypsies hit your area hard next few years. These dry years are how they get a foot hold. CT/ RI last 3-4 yrs . Now this year they’ve crushed NW CT up thru Berks up to Freaks area and ENY. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wonder if the gypsies hit your area hard next few years. These dry years are how they get a foot hold. CT/ RI last 3-4 yrs . Now this year they’ve crushed NW CT up thru Berks up to Freaks area and ENY. 

 

AWT 

[Whineminster]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wonder if the gypsies hit your area hard next few years. These dry years are how they get a foot hold. CT/ RI last 3-4 yrs . Now this year they’ve crushed NW CT up thru Berks up to Freaks area and ENY. 

Yup.  I was up in Killington area this past week....once you got west of Rutland into the Taconics/Lake Bomoseen area they were everywhere....trees bare, looked like early spring.  Had to picnic under a gazebo to not get the poo in your sangwich. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Blizz slipping in caterpillar poop as he runs in the 4th of July rain. 

[CoastalWx]

I haven't really seen any gypsies since I moved here in 2013. We had those winter moths that did a lot of damage to oaks, but since about 2018...they haven't been around much. I had my trees sprayed it was so bad. It was a natural bacteria that killed them when they went to eat the leaves. 

But, I haven't seen them in my hood for a few years.

[Ginx snewx]

16 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Sure,

What are the limiting factors while it is over water?

There.

Shear, naked swirl

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I haven't really seen any gypsies since I moved here in 2013. We had those winter moths that did a lot of damage to oaks, but since about 2018...they haven't been around much. I had my trees sprayed it was so bad. It was a natural bacteria that killed them when they went to eat the leaves. 

But, I haven't seen them in my hood for a few years.

They did there damage here. So many thousands of oaks gone. You can still see the damage when you look at the hills here from a distance.  Whole strands brown. Rt 14 in Scotland Ct is really bad. We lost 8 oaks and I still have 2 left to take down. This one over the fire pit is next. Tricky take down with my dog fencing and all.

[tamarack]

9 hours ago, dendrite said:

73F in 1875 for CON...that's probably safe. If you want to exclude the knicker era it's 69F in 2016, 1999, and other years..

The records I've downloaded show numerous 70+ minima, topped off by 3 mornings at 75.  Different spots in town?

7/22/1978	96	75
8/2/2006	97	75
7/12/2011	92	75

[Ginx snewx]

Reports from my bud in RI are his ash and poplar are getting demolished by winter moth caterpillars. I noticed some of my poplar are thinned out at the top.

[amarshall]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hopefully there’s fireworks deep into each weekend night 

We have an arsenal. Rain sleet snow we will bang

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The records I've downloaded show numerous 70+ minima, topped off by 3 mornings at 75.  Different spots in town?

7/22/1978	96	75
8/2/2006	97	75
7/12/2011	92	75

I was just talking the record for the date. 

[Ginx snewx]

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol…I don’t think they’ll be doing them. I just want the rain for the plants/trees. It’s been a tough year planting and trying to establish new pawpaw trees. They like moist well drained soil and I’ve been having to drag the hose 100ft out there each evening to water. 

Hey I found my driveway covered in fully developed Hickory nuts about the size of a Japanese beetle. Never happened before? Weird.  Did you ever plant those seeds?

[weatherwiz]

Looks like we should see scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms Wednesday. Should even see a few localized severe thunderstorms. Lightning will be greatest risk...probably quite a bit of CG's. Lapse rates don't look overly terrible but greatest dynamics just a bit displaced from greatest instability. Could see some localized flash flooding too given PWATS

[tamarack]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I was just talking the record for the date. 

Ah so.  Makes sense now. 
Low was 68 here.  Unless we get the big TS (2% chance) that will tie 6/29/99 for highest minimum in June.  Only 4 mornings have been milder, 3 in July and one in September.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most all of that is Thursday into Friday. Poor GFS. Alone and wrong again 

There's little chance the strong WAR will get beaten down so quickly. Gfs will be right.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's little chance the strong WAR will get beaten down so quickly. Gfs will be right.

with the MJO going into 2, it could get knocked down quickly-2 argues for cooler weather here which would argue for a quicker frontal passage...but I hear your point on the WAR it's often stronger than modeled

[Damage In Tolland]

55 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Yup.  I was up in Killington area this past week....once you got west of Rutland into the Taconics/Lake Bomoseen area they were everywhere....trees bare, looked like early spring.  Had to picnic under a gazebo to not get the poo in your sangwich. 

They follow the droughts. Several years ago that was CT and RI. Now it’s the NW Hills on north into VT . I’d bet next spring they have a severe outbreak in C and NNH up into Maine , and possibly even on the Cape. Those areas are in long term drought 

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They follow the droughts. Several years ago that was CT and RI. Now it’s the NW Hills on north into VT . I’d bet next spring they have a severe outbreak in C and NNH up into Maine , and possibly even on the Cape. Those areas are in long term drought 

The Brewster area had them real bad this year. 

[dendrite]

41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hey I found my driveway covered in fully developed Hickory nuts about the size of a Japanese beetle. Never happened before? Weird.  Did you ever plant those seeds?

I’ve got about 10 of them. 2 directly seeded and maybe a half dozen or so in tall pots. Chippies got a lot of them. They’re slow growing for the first few years. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm actually a little surprised KBOX didn't pull the EH warning trigger given the feel of this as it has approached, but they did give pause and consideration to doing so; that's sufficient.  As we discussed late yesterday, this is marginal for 'big heat' *subjective as it may be. 

 It is not out of the question that a few spots may flirt
with Excessive Heat Warning Criteria, but felt the Heat Advisory
was most representative for now although later shifts will have to
monitor dewpoint trends closely. We did opt to expand the Heat
Advisory onto the east slopes of the Berkshires as heat indices
will likely reach the middle to upper 90s this afternoon and
again Tuesday afternoon. The only relief from the heat/humidity
are some southwest wind gusts of 20-25 mph.

I'm impressed by the NAM's four run stalwart consistency with parametrics on this - it won't deviate.  But it's 2-meter/machine interpolations seem dimmed.

32 C at 980 mb hanging over Logan tomorrow at ax heat, with a wind absolutely straight west !   That's 'somewhat' unusual in that normally torridity is a SW flow.. But the impetus here is that a W wind both precludes any kind of indirect help from the Bite waters, but also even offers some down-sloping compression - like the situation needs more reasons to be hotter. But the data and implications are hotter than NYC/LGA at 31C ... but splitting hairs.

Either supports a 2-meter T of 37C(~98) if under full sun/land based delivery.  MOS is not that this high, noted - in the 93 .. 95 range.  That seems biased..not sure.  It seems the model doesn't extend the mixing height of the BL - which given the total synopsis .. it is unclear why it does this ( but I didn't look at bufkit to back that assumption).  It just seems that 19.5C in a standard 850 mb adiabat is actually 32C to T1 (check) - so that suggests it is mixing between those sigma points, but the usual about 38 C in the 2 meter may just be MOS nuance.  I dunno...again, hairs.  Heh..too much effort over a hyper needling model design - Euro is 96 .. 97. Fine

I agree with BOX implication above that the wild card may be the DP. Temp appears conceptually locked for that range despite those 2-meter idiosyncrasies

[dendrite]

12 hours ago, dendrite said:

112° at PDX may be it. 103° at SEA ties their all-time high, but they should break that tomorrow. 

Looks like SEA snuck a 104° in there for an all-timer. 

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ve got about 10 of them. 2 directly seeded and maybe a half dozen or so in tall pots. Chippies got a lot of them. They’re slow growing for the first few years. 

Sweet, whats your take on the mini nutz

[Cyclone-68]

Just noticed that most of the northeast is outlooked for thunderstorms on Wednesday. Let it happen. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro wants to COC the weekend with an afternoon pop up shower while GFS is a toaster bath. GFS total qpf to Sunday afternoon and 24 Sat with Euro 24 hr Sat Sun

...

...

...

...

 

Just taking a look at the weekend.

We all know this but ...it's still 144 + hours away and that's outside any of the modeling's wheel-house.    ( the import in this is obviously the 4th of July shenanigans and not having that disrupted ).

00z GGEM is really ( surface ...) a redux of Memorial Day.  Aloft it is transformative from a hyper summer anomaly to an early March scenario ( 500 mb evolution ) - that's a 'bowling ball' Nor'easter it's delivering.  I don't see this solution as higher probability. It almost looks like it is forced to balance climo for today through Wednesday.  "Hey GGEM - sometimes you just lose to heat/cold"

00z GFS typically paints exuberant layout of QPF.   That aside, it seems hugely biased in placing the sharply kinked/inflection low in the Bite region S of LI> based upon the deep layer circulation, arriving on the morning of the 4th.  Looking at the heights, I woulda thunk a different lower troposphere.  The model tends to wedge surface boundaries too far S of the heights in any scope or dimension during its normal operating parade of events - could be bullying that there in doing the same.  It's like ... pick one.  Either back off on that front, or... lower the heights so that it is looks like well ..the GGEM.  In which case, it is probably wrong for two reasons LOL. 

Anyway, the Euro looks both climate normal, as well as a better seasonal-trend fit.  I don't know if there is enough reason to even plumb the deep vortex down that these other guidance are doing, now that I'm looking at this at a larger scale.  It seems both are doing a huge seasaw to get to climate normals - whether that is organically so or parameterized, who knows.  Muah hahaha, the conpsiracy to f-up the models and fake output.  LOL.

For now it seems that entire manifold of Fri- Mon the 5th is mutable.  Having said that, I don't see it necessarily breaking for the better. There is ensemble support - clearly - for period of humidity and rains, but we won't know if it is coming in the form of an anachronistic March bowler like the GGEM, or more of a mid 70s sunshine splashed between rumbles Euro solution. But the Euro detail looks like murk Sunday morning breaks to partly sunny with temps sneaking to 75 with towers in late afternoon.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks like we should see scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms Wednesday. Should even see a few localized severe thunderstorms. Lightning will be greatest risk...probably quite a bit of CG's. Lapse rates don't look overly terrible but greatest dynamics just a bit displaced from greatest instability. Could see some localized flash flooding too given PWATS

Agreed ..

It's a bit of a regional CAPE anomaly more like 'ending up' in a cap recession/abandoning CIN

This is a stowed CAPE release deal, where days of packing energy into the troposphere, and the ridge heights capping suddenly subside that day.  In fact, looking at 12 to 14 dam decline in heights between 18z Tuesday and Wednesday same time.  So we cross a threshold where heat ridge inhibition goes away and towers erupt on Wednesday. It's hard to know what the storm structures will be but probably pulse variety that tend or try to bow E with the steadily increasing W component at mid levels.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha, it's funny looking at the GFS details too -

Like, how often does one see a triple point low and severely kinked isobaric layout along and S of LI, while hydrostatic thicknesses are above 570 dm across all of New England below Brian latitudes ( where there be dragons of course! ) ? 

That should be red flag that the GFS shouldn't have the front there in the first place.  Tossed -

I just think the Euro run has the righter idea with the trough filling ( seasonal/recency trends in the hemispheric mode), and tending to be positively oriented should push/align the baroclinic field more SE of the region, which/where it is doing and so we see a tendency to train pieces of shit lows along that axies - but "maybe" enough SE of the region to spare NW sections and at least give SE hope.  We'll see.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Reports from my bud in RI are his ash and poplar are getting demolished by winter moth caterpillars. I noticed some of my poplar are thinned out at the top.

Winter moths got the maples around here a couple years ago. Ate every last leaf but thankfully it was early in the year so they recovered.

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I’ve got about 10 of them. 2 directly seeded and maybe a half dozen or so in tall pots. Chippies got a lot of them. They’re slow growing for the first few years. 

i hate chipmunks with all my soul