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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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It’s certainly unusually active in the basin right now. Aside from 96L, 95L is looking pretty decent today as the guidance tries to develop it (again) and the wave behind 95L is looking robust on guidance, at least right now.

With the general steering environment, something that’s able to make it to the SW Atlantic or western Caribbean could make things interesting near or just after the holiday. Climo starts to open up in July for CV or MDR development, but it’s still early and we’re seeing robust waves coming through. 

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54 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

88/70

Pretty impressive but then again it’s like the third day this season of high dews and near 90F, so maybe not that impressive.  It’s the dews with those temps that seems wild to me at the ASOS in a field.

Bum in the river?

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Certainly not run of the mill but we get these seems every summer. Yes extremely hot for those who work outside or don't have AC. No doubt  about it. Still waiting for the sun here 79 degrees 

It’s why you doubt the GFS solution . Euro coming around slowly to warm humid stormy day. It’ll end up being 70’s humid and probably heavy downpours /storms one weekend day. Not 52 and rain all weekend lol. They’re slowly getting there .. recognizing the WAR strength. You don’t just blast a trough/ ULL into that with cold rains 

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s why you doubt the GFS solution . Euro coming around slowly to warm humid stormy day. It’ll end up being 70’s humid and probably heavy downpours /storms one weekend day. Not 52 and rain all weekend lol. They’re slowly getting there .. recognizing the WAR strength. You don’t just blast a trough/ ULL into that with cold rains 

Euro looks like shit

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20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro looks like shit

I actually don’t think your thought process is too far off mine . You are just thinking it’s going to be a cold weekend not far from MDW. I think one day, maybe part of a 2nd day could have a stormy look. I just don’t think the cold is going to happen. My feeling is trough axis sets up west of the Apps . Meaning wet potentially , but not 52 for 2-3 days.  That’s the main difference. I just feel the WAR will put up much resistance . It’s summer so - NAO means little  with such a beast ridge. I’d just be careful to the folks thinking it’s a cold rainy weekend . To me. We very easily end up on the east side with SW humid flow . Maybe a met like Wiz or Tip can elaborate on that thought process 

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I actually don’t think your thought process is too far off mine . You are just thinking it’s going to be a cold weekend not far from MDW. I think one day, maybe part of a 2nd day could have a stormy look. I just don’t think the cold is going to happen. My feeling is trough axis sets up west of the Apps . Meaning wet potentially , but not 52 for 2-3 days.  That’s the main difference. I just feel the WAR will put up much resistance . It’s summer so - NAO means little  with such a beast ridge. I’d just be careful to the folks thinking it’s a cold rainy weekend . To me. We very easily end up on the east side with SW humid flow . Maybe a met like Wiz or Tip can elaborate on that thought process 

Does anyone thing it’ll be 52F for 2-3 days?

Its all relative to climo.  Even a day in the mid/upper 60s is pretty cold for July in a relative sense.

Looks like the Euro is two days of 60s with nights in the 50s.

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Does anyone thing it’ll be 52F for 2-3 days?

Its all relative to climo.  Even a day in the mid/upper 60s is pretty cold for July in a relative sense.

Looks like the Euro is two days of 60s with nights in the 50s.

I just don’t understand why some people seem to think the op run is going to verify at day 6-7? In winter do we do that? There’s a great poster in the NYC forum Bluewave, that has been noting for years that the op models always underestimate the strength of the war. So for example in winter when we all get naked to a 12”-16” snowfall at the 40/70 at day 6-7,, it typically ends up west and we congrats you . It’s the same thing in summer only stronger. Why is it so hard to envision this being a warm humid, stormy one  day deal with either a weak fropa or maybe even the front just dissipates overhead? Why can’t that be another option at this range, especially with ensemble offering that as an option? I’m really trying to be more open minded and I don’t see why that’s not an option here?

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16 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

up to 109 at PDX .. will they make a run for 115? 

 The city's all time record high was 107F until yesterday.  They reached 107F three times in the city's history.  Yesterday broke that with a 108F  I believe.  At 2pm west time it was up to 109/52F.   GFS has a high of 114 today and 118 tomorrow.  Euro has a high of 111 and 116.  My Mother, sister and family live in Oregon so I'm watching this with interest.  VERY impressive to break all time highs by many degrees.

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16 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

up to 109 at PDX .. will they make a run for 115? 

 The city's all time record high was 107F until yesterday.  They reached 107F three times in the city's history.  Yesterday broke that with a 108F  I believe.  At 2pm west time it was up to 109/52F.   GFS has a high of 114 today and 118 tomorrow.  Euro has a high of 111 and 116.  My Mother, sister and family live in Oregon so I'm watching this with interest.  VERY impressive to break all time highs by many degrees.

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today was meh heat in SNE. Very nice pool day.  Gusty winds had a bit too much Southerly component to make the most out of the heat...even up to SNH /and or maybe the 850 temps just took a bit longer to get toward that 17c range.

One observation in the pit of ct. river valley showing 90 at 5pm in SNE.  

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=RWR&format=CI&version=1

BTV meanwhile is 93

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30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man when that wind shifted easterly the temp skyrocketed and dews plummeted…no real surprise but always cool to see the meteorological physics play out like they should. 

Interesting I was checking the HI numbers and they were unchanged...

Apparently, 104/66 at biggest combo 2 hours back is the same as 111/55 present hour.   110

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