Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 5:42 PM, SnoSki14 said: Didn't you also say the wet Memorial day weekend forecast was nonsense. To me seems like there's been a pattern of intense heat followed by cool, rainy weather since spring. Expand Noted that yesterday. Kevs a big one for persistence well here we are on the cusp of yet another heat wave followed by cool rainy weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2021 Author Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 5:42 PM, Ginx snewx said: Lol and we are the hypsters. Nothing we haven't had happen every summer since birth. Expand Mmm we may wanna look up and test that - I 'think' this was mentioned as nearing a historic ridge in terms of heights - that would by definition preclude the "every summer" assumption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Hoping the GFS is right with the cool rainy weekend! Sick of the heat! 3 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 5:54 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Mmm we may wanna look up and test that - I 'think' this was mentioned as nearing a historic ridge in terms of heights - that would by definition preclude the "every summer" assumption Expand If we lived at 5h but 925 is certainly hot but pretty much happens every summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 The BOX discussion specifically said the upper level ridge was pushing 99th percentile of climo (edit: and the guidance has upper 90s possible for urban areas), so this doesn't strike me as run of the mill heat. Something can be hazardous without being historic and we know for heat a lot of it depends on the context you're living in. Most will be fine, some will not if they don't take it seriously or don't have access to AC/cooling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 6:09 PM, WxWatcher007 said: The BOX discussion specifically said the upper level ridge was pushing 99th percentile of climo (edit: and the guidance has upper 90s possible for urban areas), so this doesn't strike me as run of the mill heat. Something can be hazardous without being historic and we know for heat a lot of it depends on the context you're living in. Most will be fine, some will not if they don't take it seriously or don't have access to AC/cooling. Expand Certainly not run of the mill but we get these seems every summer. Yes extremely hot for those who work outside or don't have AC. No doubt about it. Still waiting for the sun here 79 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 83/72 here. At least the sun is out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 6:23 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: 83/72 here. At least the sun is out Expand What's this yellow orb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2021 Author Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 6:09 PM, WxWatcher007 said: The BOX discussion specifically said the upper level ridge was pushing 99th percentile of climo (edit: and the guidance has upper 90s possible for urban areas), so this doesn't strike me as run of the mill heat. Something can be hazardous without being historic and we know for heat a lot of it depends on the context you're living in. Most will be fine, some will not if they don't take it seriously or don't have access to AC/cooling. Expand Heat just doesn't stroke every awe-boner in this weather-related interest/social media. For others, purely from a Meteorological perspective and interest ...that ( bold abv) is interesting. that's the difference. Some Mets and hobbyists may get into this sort of thing; others do not. But for those that do not, the semantic attempt at spinning it less because the conversation is petty-annoying ...tough shit I guess. Whatever - 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 6:13 PM, Ginx snewx said: Certainly not run of the mill but we get these seems every summer. Yes extremely hot for those who work outside or don't have AC. No doubt about it. Still waiting for the sun here 79 degrees Expand Yes, yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Up to 89°. Mixed clouds now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2021 Author Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 6:08 PM, Ginx snewx said: If we lived at 5h but 925 is certainly hot but pretty much happens every summer ... ... ... .... Expand Okay ...I know - You're talking about the experience of weather - no argument. No argument. The Meteorology metrical aspects are noteworthy and thus preclude the run-of-the-mill aspect. That said, if it make 98/72 anywhere, the experience is rare - not arguable. Sorry. And 27 C at 925 has an adiabat arrival to 35 C at the bottom - btw. That does not even include explosive parcel release in the 2 meter, which adds a couple C typically to the slope temp; that number. 37 C =~ 98 So I'm not sure I agree with just that piece of your claim - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Euro sucks too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 5:16 PM, CoastalWx said: The real life threatening heat is out west. The only thing being threatened in this heat wave, are my hydrangeas. Expand Tippy is hyping the heat a tad . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 6:48 PM, CoastalWx said: Euro sucks too. Expand Late week/next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 +2.4SD on the H5 heights in the BOX CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 6:48 PM, CoastalWx said: Euro sucks too. Expand Looks great to me! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2021 Author Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 6:48 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Tippy is hyping the heat a tad . Expand No, this is not true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2021 Author Share Posted June 27, 2021 I love it. This morning TPC had slightly different take on this - things can change really fast Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate that a small low pressure system has formed about 500 miles east-southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Surface pressures have begun to fall across the area, and showers and thunderstorms have recently become better organized. Some additional development of this system will be possible later today, and especially on Monday when the system will move across the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, and a tropical depression could form before the system makes landfall along the southern U.S. coast. The low is expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern United States by late Monday. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 88/70 Pretty impressive but then again it’s like the third day this season of high dews and near 90F, so maybe not that impressive. It’s the dews with those temps that seems wild to me at the ASOS in a field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2021 Author Share Posted June 27, 2021 Ho man ... 'magine if that thing did a 24 hour RI out of nowhere ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2021 Author Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 7:13 PM, powderfreak said: 88/70 Pretty impressive but then again it’s like the third day this season of high dews and near 90F, so maybe not that impressive. Expand It's impressive what it's doing to June - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 7:13 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Ho man ... 'magine if that thing did a 24 hour RI out of nowhere ... Expand The ones with no recurve/trough interaction up through landfall —like this one—are the most dangerous in this respect. Imo. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2021 Author Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 7:18 PM, jbenedet said: The ones with no recurve/trough interaction up through landfall are the most dangerous in this respect. Imo. Expand I just see it moving into a no shear environment, with momentum in cyclostrophic flow already going ... over ample OHC. Not sure how many environment variable one really needs, but rip and read on those parametrics, I would not be shocked if TS watches go out for the SE Coast pretty soon here. LOL - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 7:22 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I just see it moving into a no shear environment, with momentum in cyclostrophic flow already going ... over ample OHC. Not sure how many environment variable one really needs, but rip and read on those parametrics, I would not be shocked if TS watches go out for the SE Coast pretty soon here. LOL - Expand Dry air entrainment only limiting factor, and that will be a function of how organized the circulation becomes. If it tightens up here, it could well create a moisture pocket, and continue to quickly organize. As you noted shear itself is low—modest structural organization will go a long way in this case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 The limiting factor with this system is time left over water . Not much time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 7:36 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: The limiting factor with this system is time left over water . Not much time Expand Sure, What are the limiting factors while it is over water? There. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 7:22 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I just see it moving into a no shear environment, with momentum in cyclostrophic flow already going ... over ample OHC. Not sure how many environment variable one really needs, but rip and read on those parametrics, I would not be shocked if TS watches go out for the SE Coast pretty soon here. LOL - Expand Saw your post and had to check it out.. that happened quick!!! Wonder if it blows up tonight looking really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 95l might be one to watch but way out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 On 6/27/2021 at 7:13 PM, powderfreak said: 88/70 Pretty impressive but then again it’s like the third day this season of high dews and near 90F, so maybe not that impressive. It’s the dews with those temps that seems wild to me at the ASOS in a field. Expand Suns out guns out but no in and out lol. 83 windy very comfortable coming out of the water. Tan is on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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