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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Didn't you also say the wet Memorial day weekend forecast was nonsense. 

To me seems like there's been a pattern of intense heat followed by cool, rainy weather since spring. 

Noted that yesterday.  Kevs a big one for persistence well here we are on the cusp of yet another heat wave followed by cool rainy weather 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol and we are the hypsters. Nothing we haven't had happen every summer since birth.

Mmm  we may wanna look up and test that -  I 'think' this was mentioned as nearing a historic ridge in terms of heights - that would by definition preclude the "every summer" assumption

 

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm  we may wanna look up and test that -  I 'think' this was mentioned as nearing a historic ridge in terms of heights - that would by definition preclude the "every summer" assumption

 

If we lived at 5h but 925 is certainly hot but pretty much happens every summer Screenshot_20210627-140614_Chrome.thumb.jpg.49427efdb25b658309cb38f873648f14.jpg

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The BOX discussion specifically said the upper level ridge was pushing 99th percentile of climo (edit: and the guidance has upper 90s possible for urban areas), so this doesn't strike me as run of the mill heat. Something can be hazardous without being historic and we know for heat a lot of it depends on the context you're living in. Most will be fine, some will not if they don't take it seriously or don't have access to AC/cooling. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The BOX discussion specifically said the upper level ridge was pushing 99th percentile of climo (edit: and the guidance has upper 90s possible for urban areas), so this doesn't strike me as run of the mill heat. Something can be hazardous without being historic and we know for heat a lot of it depends on the context you're living in. Most will be fine, some will not if they don't take it seriously or don't have access to AC/cooling. 

Certainly not run of the mill but we get these seems every summer. Yes extremely hot for those who work outside or don't have AC. No doubt  about it. Still waiting for the sun here 79 degrees 

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24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The BOX discussion specifically said the upper level ridge was pushing 99th percentile of climo (edit: and the guidance has upper 90s possible for urban areas), so this doesn't strike me as run of the mill heat. Something can be hazardous without being historic and we know for heat a lot of it depends on the context you're living in. Most will be fine, some will not if they don't take it seriously or don't have access to AC/cooling. 

Heat just doesn't stroke every awe-boner in this weather-related interest/social media.

For others, purely from a Meteorological perspective and interest ...that ( bold abv) is interesting. 

that's the difference.   Some Mets and hobbyists may get into this sort of thing; others do not.   But for those that do not, the semantic attempt at spinning it less because the conversation is petty-annoying ...tough shit I guess.  

Whatever -

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40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

If we lived at 5h but 925 is certainly hot but pretty much happens every summer

...

...

...

....

Okay ...I know -

You're talking about the experience of weather - no argument. No argument.

The Meteorology metrical aspects are noteworthy and thus preclude the run-of-the-mill aspect.     

That said, if it make 98/72 anywhere, the experience is rare - not arguable.    Sorry.

And 27 C at 925 has an adiabat arrival to 35 C at the bottom - btw.  That does not even include explosive parcel release in the 2 meter, which adds a couple C typically to the slope temp;  that number. 37 C =~ 98

So I'm not sure I agree with just that piece of your claim -

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I love it.   This morning TPC had slightly different take on this - things can change really fast

 

Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate 
that a small low pressure system has formed about 500 miles 
east-southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Surface 
pressures have begun to fall across the area, and showers and 
thunderstorms have recently become better organized. Some additional 
development of this system will be possible later today, and 
especially on Monday when the system will move across the warmer 
waters of the Gulf Stream, and a tropical depression could form 
before the system makes landfall along the southern U.S. coast. The 
low is expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward 
at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern 
United States by late Monday.  An Air Force Reserve Unit 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system 
Monday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

 

The ones with no recurve/trough interaction up through landfall are the most dangerous in this respect. Imo. 

I just see it moving into a no shear environment, with momentum in cyclostrophic flow already going ... over ample OHC.   Not sure how many environment variable one really needs, but rip and read on those parametrics, I would not be shocked if TS watches go out for the SE Coast pretty soon here.  LOL -

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just see it moving into a no shear environment, with momentum in cyclostrophic flow already going ... over ample OHC.   Not sure how many environment variable one really needs, but rip and read on those parametrics, I would not be shocked if TS watches go out for the SE Coast pretty soon here.  LOL -

Dry air entrainment only limiting factor, and that will be a function of how organized the circulation becomes. If it tightens up here, it could well create a moisture pocket, and continue to quickly organize. As you noted shear itself is low—modest structural organization will go a long way in this case.

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23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just see it moving into a no shear environment, with momentum in cyclostrophic flow already going ... over ample OHC.   Not sure how many environment variable one really needs, but rip and read on those parametrics, I would not be shocked if TS watches go out for the SE Coast pretty soon here.  LOL -

Saw your post and had to check it out.. that happened quick!!! Wonder if it blows up tonight looking really good

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43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

88/70

Pretty impressive but then again it’s like the third day this season of high dews and near 90F, so maybe not that impressive.  It’s the dews with those temps that seems wild to me at the ASOS in a field.

Suns out guns out but no in and out lol.  83 windy very comfortable coming out of the water. Tan is on

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