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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

A bit of a different story on the midcoast...aside from a touch of humidity, a top 10–maybe 15.  Sunny, 77*.

Indeed, from what I've observed it seems very tough to get above lower 80s in that area, all the stars have to align just right. IZG up to 91.4 now with the dewpoint starting to mix out (66 ->  62), 86 here.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Talk about whiplash.  That's wild.  Folks will be putting winter jackets on in the 50s after 95-100F.

Looks like the typical new england spring atlantic special type temps, but not in the usual coastal plain places. What a disaster.

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thats 4 runs

Not according to BOX.. We wouldn’t be locking in GFS runs 7 days out on winter would we? I think you’ll see the humid conditions continue just not the heat . Can see maybe low - mid 70’s with sun / clouds downpours in afternoons . This is near record heights on the WAR. It’s not going away with a battle . 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not according to BOX.. We wouldn’t be locking in GFS runs 7 days out on winter would we? I think you’ll see the humid conditions continue just not the heat . Can see maybe low - mid 70’s with sun / clouds downpours in afternoons 

Yeah that sounds reasonable.  I mean if low-70s and afternoon downpours is a "win" on 4th of July weekend then the bar isn't set all that high to begin with.

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Who cares about the 4th ... god, there's a potentially life threatening event getting started like     now -

But I know..  No one takes heat seriously - fine. whatever.

The nexus of cumulative thermal storing with residual supportive synoptics doesn't really occur until Tuesday 18z ( ~ ), despite the non-hydrostatic dome on the charts maximizing in the Y and X coordinate dimensions roughly 00z tomorrow evening.  

Tuesday morning, in fact, I wonder if elevated/record high-minimums may be in trouble that dawn.  Light west wind over, through a landscape bathed the previous day in insolation will help maintain fully thermally charged hydrostatic thickness, in a situation where the initial conditional potential are huge in that regard.  This should reflect in temperature stalls at exceptionally high values - even relative to heat wave climo for our area of the country.  The over-arcing synoptic ordeal's significance ( I believe ) may be eclipsed by the Portland specter.  We are approaching 600 dam just S of LI.   One can only imagine what would be if Sonoran heat injection got caught up inside this thing -

Anyway I could see Logan and LGA not falling below 84 F, perhaps not 90 until 1 or 2 am.  interesting.

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If the EPS is right it’s all suppressed south and sunny and 80. A compromise is probably in order 

Yeah I’m watching. Might head down to Woodstock but if it’s going to rain I’ll just stay up north with friends.  Be curious to see how it shakes out.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I’m watching. Might head down to Woodstock but if it’s going to rain I’ll just stay up north with friends.  Be curious to see how it shakes out.

I’ll be out in FMH like always for the 4th. All the years we’ve been going there there’s never been a rainy , cold weekend and this year won’t be any different 

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Tuesday morning, in fact, I wonder if elevated/record high-minimums may be in trouble that dawn.  Light west wind over, through a landscape bathed the previous day in insolation will help maintain fully thermally charged hydrostatic thickness, in a situation where the initial conditional potential are huge in that regard.  This should reflect in temperature stalls at exceptionally high values - even relative to heat wave climo for our area of the country.  The over-arcing synoptic ordeal's significance ( I believe ) may be eclipsed by the Portland specter.  We are approaching 600 dam just S of LI.   One can only imagine what would be if Sonoran heat injection got caught up inside this thing -

Anyway I could see Logan and LGA not falling below 84 F, perhaps not 90 until 1 or 2 am.  interesting.

The last time that sticks out in my mind for high overnight mins, at least in this area of NNE was the evening before the day of that tornado outbreak in 2011. The night prior we were still well into the 80s near midnight. 2011 was quite the memorable summer, kicked off by that outbreak, then the triple digit heat in July, followed by Irene in August.

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Off topic but man I just heard about James today, man that’s awful, he was too young. I’m new to posting on this board but I have been lurking on weather boards for years and his posts really stood out to me. His unwavering passion for weather despite getting skunked year after year on the Cape was a beautiful thing. I really wish I could have met him in person, whenever I would hear him hyping up a massive blizzard on the models it made my day. Reading James posts is what lead me to discovering my own passion for weather, and his posts are what inspired me to make an account. I know due to my extreme weeniesm and at times bordering on delusional forecasts lead many to crown me as the biggest weenie on the board, but I refuse to accept that title. James always has and always will be the biggest weenie on this board. 

 

RIP James, the man who helped me and many others discover our passions for the weather. Tracking winter storms won’t be the same without him, and next time I’m hyping up a massive blizzard I will always be thinking of him.

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40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s 7 days away and one op run. This will evolve and change quite a bit over the coming days. No support .. like a broken bra.

Didn't you also say the wet Memorial day weekend forecast was nonsense. 

To me seems like there's been a pattern of intense heat followed by cool, rainy weather since spring. 

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