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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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11 hours ago, mreaves said:

I believe that D2 spot is basically over Tamarack’s house. 

:lol:

We're in the western edge.  June precip up to 0.83", driest June of 23 here is 1.22".

June 1-9 was +9.8 here but since then it's been about average.  After today the month will be running +3.  I see a decent chance that the coming heat will push June 2021 past 2001 for 2nd warmest but essentially no chance of catching 1999 for 1st place.  We'll be about 2.3° less warm than 1999 with only 5 days remaining - would take the 2-3 hottest days we've had since moving here in May 1998 to make up the difference.  Not impossible, highly unlikely.

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Status quo from the guidance overnight wrt to the non-hydrostatic ( heights ) aspect of synoptic evolution, alone - that aspect alone is rather remarkably consistent across multiple guidance sourcing, too.  GGEM .. Euro .. GFS and UKM, all place the atmospheric equiv of the Tibetan Plateau over the Bite region E of NJ, and anchor it there from Monday, maximizing Tuesday ...then they begin varying on the evolution of this ridge evolution there after, as a Lakes trough tries to descend along about 90W toward the end of the week.

That then sets up either a Bahama Blue ( finally! ..will this ever happen?) along the EC, as similarly, it doesn't have any mechanical basis to move/propagate its wave space through the actual flow, or, it weakens faster and doesn't construct the S conveyor east of it at all. 

All this prior to another continental heat surge/event that is lurking the American -based telecon long lead - this isn't over after this week.  .. but cross that bridge. 

Re the heat in the foreground; they are fiddling with details that offset impacts.

The GFS thinks that an actual cold front will arrive Tuesday by 12z ... Given all, that seems less likely to me.   It appears to be either uniquely onto something, or, artificially amplifying the eastern Canadian exit embedded middle tropospheric velocities, with jet shrapnel vort maxima it then says, oh, now I have to BD to atone for the mass flux ... This is an example of how its consummately over supplying cold heights in the Ferrel side of the polar jet gets it into trouble. Even subtle surplus tends to speed up the flow due to ending up on the next interval with more gradient then the other guidance..  It sets up faux mechanical feed-backs  As a result, ends up unrealistically placing a west-east boundary from CLE to NYC  underneath a suppressive/preventing closed 594 dm heights. 

The Euro of course doesn't do any of that hinky accelerating/power enhancement crap over eastern Canada, but it's up to something else.  It has an interesting tendency after Monday to suddenly dry out the DP.  We end up 98/62 at places like ASH, NH.    Hot enough ...  But, it's unclear why it is doing that when at the time there is a 400 mile wide tube of 70 to 76 DPs from IA to NY in a pressure pattern that should bring that conveyor right fluid continuation in, with almost no inhibition to do so. Something in the physics of this thing is lopping that eastern end off on Tue/Wed, which if so... booya! It would mitigate the risk from this thing on those two days. Maybe there is something to the GFS in the symbolic voice, as both these guidances are picking Tuesday to blindly introduce - there could be something about to come into focus, but I suspect it is coincident noise.

The GGEM is the class clown regardless of any day of the year, but fwiw - it doesn't do either of these things.  It just limits it's 2-meter temperature to 88 F at PHL-NYC-BOS which appears unrealistic relative to its total manifold -synoptics.

I dunno - I suspect of the three oddities above, the GFS is the least plausible correction.   Then the GGEM ... Euro. 

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Yesterday's utopic bath being matched by today's dystopic bath ...

talk about climate balancing!    ...what a piece of shit out there today, and oh so diametrical to yesterday's top 10. Diamond to dog shit, boom boom. Series tied at 1-1

I have to admit, this is more pessimistic than I thought - but, ...mm, I chose to accept the NAM RH fields. What an asshole.  But that had Logan under 50% ceiling hgt RH by noon, and with 85% in the bottom .. that all looked like partial sun in the afternoon.  Not seemin' very likely looking at trends. Well see. I've been fooled into back-peddling before.

So, cool bottom dweller day until further notice, and looking around, ...it cookie-cutter SNE and some parts of Central quite precisely. 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Here's the thing, despite the underpinning tone of dread to this, there something very refreshingly nice about that cool air.   

It appears looking at Sat and sfc obs that the vortex - which was rather well modeled actually ...- weakly closed off along the warm front will delay the warm front from coming through today. In fact, it may delay it to never coming through. The weak backside flow will pin it and instead of moving through it will just disappear through Sunday a slow death. It was tough to glean these behaviors out of the charts because the sensitivity was less than standard isobaric intervals at times, making matters look just as likely to be false.  interesting -

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27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Daily 500mb height records will be shattered this week across the PAC NW. Hell...likely even all time possible

image.png.39d33cf95ac6f562856649bd24151a1f.png

It’s insane. I saw a tweet saying the local NWS is warning about runoff because the freezing level will basically reach the top of mountains.

Incredible to see how they can torch which makes me wonder what’s the hottest we could do here if the mid/upper level pattern lined up for epic heat. Maybe 107-108 at say BDL?

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s insane. I saw a tweet saying the local NWS is warning about runoff because the freezing level will basically reach the top of mountains.

Incredible to see how they can torch which makes me wonder what’s the hottest we could do here if the mid/upper level pattern lined up for epic heat. Maybe 107-108 at say BDL?

That's incredible...wow. 

That is an excellent question. Those numbers sound about right to me...but even if the perfect mid/upper level pattern were to unfold there would still be some moderations from vegetation/moisture and dewpoints. Even with a predominately NW flow we probably would still be looking at 40/50 dewpoints. I'm sure topography is likely also enhancing the heat out there

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35 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s insane. I saw a tweet saying the local NWS is warning about runoff because the freezing level will basically reach the top of mountains.

Incredible to see how they can torch which makes me wonder what’s the hottest we could do here if the mid/upper level pattern lined up for epic heat. Maybe 107-108 at say BDL?

Not to be a dink but yeah ...I wrote a quick post ( for me - haha) last night about this very subject.

The non-hydrostatic heights over Long Island are equal or similar from late Sun and particularly Mon thru early Wed, to those over the the Pac NW.  We are not maximizing the hydrostatic thickness within that non-hydrostatic ridge bomb. It may be that we can't at our latitude ... not without two suns. But, there is a way that with the sun, together with planetary feed-backs can 'synergistically' get the deed done.  And I really feel we are dodging extraordinary bullets when these 594 dam extremes emerge. Playing with fire heh

How? 

We haven’t observed a true Sonoran heat release in recent years. One that injects a pithy 22.5+C 850 mb, well mixing payload into one of these, not since 594 dm become the new 588.

These tall heights can do a lot of damage with ‘hone grown' cumulative thermal and consecutive days - like next week’s type. That's not to reduce 94/69 significance -that's ugly.

But I wonder if something special lurks this summer, based in part upon early trends, in part upon other super telecon indicators with AAM and relaxed hemispheric velocities mapping over top a La Nina hangover. 

One of theses times we may hang a 25C 850 mb air mass over ORD with sights on BTV to PHL and Boston, but timing better with one of these atmospheric Tibetan Plateaus next week.

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s insane. I saw a tweet saying the local NWS is warning about runoff because the freezing level will basically reach the top of mountains.

Incredible to see how they can torch which makes me wonder what’s the hottest we could do here if the mid/upper level pattern lined up for epic heat. Maybe 107-108 at say BDL?

I think the current max for New England is 107 on 8/2/75 (Hot Saturday) at New Bedford, MA.  All 6 states have relatively close all time hottest.  RI is lowest at 104, also on Hot Saturday.  CT and NH have reached 106 and VT/ME 105.  All 3 NNE states set their records in July 1911, CT (Danbury) in July 1995.

Edit:  Looked at GFS for SEA and it had H5s up to -2, so the freezing level is well up the snowy Cascades.

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23 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I think the current max for New England is 107 on 8/2/75 (Hot Saturday) at New Bedford, MA.  All 6 states have relatively close all time hottest.  RI is lowest at 104, also on Hot Saturday.  CT and NH have reached 106 and VT/ME 105.  All 3 NNE states set their records in July 1911, CT (Danbury) in July 1995.

Edit:  Looked at GFS for SEA and it had H5s up to -2, so the freezing level is well up the snowy Cascades.

I’ve debated that 107° before. I toss it since EWB airport was only like 99-100°. 7/4/1911 was probably tops for much of the region given how widespread the high numbers were. It wasn’t a cheap 106° with 100° all around it. 

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24 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I think the current max for New England is 107 on 8/2/75 (Hot Saturday) at New Bedford, MA.  All 6 states have relatively close all time hottest.  RI is lowest at 104, also on Hot Saturday.  CT and NH have reached 106 and VT/ME 105.  All 3 NNE states set their records in July 1911, CT (Danbury) in July 1995.

Edit:  Looked at GFS for SEA and it had H5s up to -2, so the freezing level is well up the snowy Cascades.

Hmm interesting those were all before the turn of the Century, a time since features the arrival of the new 594 ridge era   ;)

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