June, 2021 Discussion

[wx2fish]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

33.4F at Estcourt Station this morn. SLK with another 32F.

I'm up in Pittsburg and saw 39. First Lake is in the low 60s and fogged in hard. Probably kept it just a little warmer. There's always a cool northeast drain across the first lake until about 8am on these calm mornings before the prevailing wind for the day kicks in

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if we might see an Invest S of the CV's off Africa.  That's got cyclonic broad rotation with cloud tops blowin a hole clear to the mesosphere.

I think the Euro ensembles were tracking a TW. 

SAL is min and SST/OHC are above normal - what's new since 1998 ..  and SAL appears minimal. 

It's unusually early for Verdi but again ...I've been hammering that 1955 climate doesn't apply now, so any inference in that regard is on shakier presumptive application to put it nicely.  We'll see -

Also, that TUTT ESE of Bermuda seems to be trying to bore its way down lower. CV generating closer to core-centered. 

It seems - however - that TPC doesn't Invest unless the models have some percentage of a visibility on the feature in question. So, perhaps not on either of these until such time as the model-reliance sends a memo to upgrade.

Yep, it’s an invest now. 95L

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean picture the scene...   The bald 7-year old with watery lenses, glances up through her iniquitous eyes to set them upon that vista you provided, an escape ...if just for a moment, for a world where freedom is always proven just a mirage on an bleak, uncertain horizon.  In that moment, you brought the heaven she's desperately hoping she may one day decide when it is time.  

"Karen Fowler?"  breaks the moment of serenity. As her father, holding  back his own tears, "Are you ready lollypop - let's go get better."    "Alright," she suserrates as she fiddles with her blanky. And as her father leads her in hand to that terrifying door, she looks over her shoulder one last time, and dreams. 

See, you could have been the deliverance - that gift from God.   But, nah ...these are just daily views.  Lol

Bald 7 yr old?

[Dan]

Yesterday at the Custer State Park welcome center I had a guy ask me if I had seen any cars with NH plates. He was keeping track of all the different states he’d seen and hadn’t seen one yet.
 
On a weather note, it was pretty warm yesterday, our car thermo hit 104° on the way to the Badlands. We also saw some good lightning but skirted around the main part of a decent storm near Rapid City. 

We came into Custer on the east side of the park around 8:45 yesterday. All the Buffalo were on the south side

Yeah we had a storm pop on top of us late last night nothing crazy but had some good thunder and lightning. We are sitting at 4300 feet and have a good view of the north west looking into Aladdin and belle fourche


.

[weathafella]

Big Stein extinguisher period coming to Chicagoland…

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Bald 7 yr old?

oh ..pay attention dude.  It's called chemo therapy - it strips one's hair.

Although actually, I think the more recent science and state of the art of treatment might be more 'targeted doping' ..such that they don't do pan-systemic bombardment of the patient. That was the older era of cancer protocols for, in particular, blood and bone -  

I know, because I lost a sister to Leukemia.   

Now, I realize that you are a strapping middle aged iconic paragon of health and vitality as a BALD man, that did not go through that - but "7" and "bald" together in the same sentence, might be a clue that there is something unusual about how that child ended up in that state while reading that ?    - just sayn'

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yep, it’s an invest now. 95L

Oh, no shit -

okay.. well, like we said above, the Euro members seemed sort of interested in that feature.    Now, I am not certain of this, that TPC really does model-dependency, but I have noticed a pattern where the modeled spin up regions get yellow X's favorably so ... so I dunno. 

wait which one - oh okay. The verdi deal  wow, 40 % at day 'out there' is actually pretty damn good when considering climate for June.   ...I mean relative to that ...

I got to say, with SAL displaced N a bit, that seems to open the region to less of that environmental inhibition.  Plus as mentioned, multi-decadal OHC isn't hurting either.  Maybe this is a good year for an early CV train ride

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not sure how they get to, "...Although oceanic temperatures are relatively cool across the tropical Atlantic..." with this,

Isn't that 83 F ??  More over, it is in fact anomalously of warm measure via multiple sources.  Interesting take -  ...how warm does it have to be to be relative warm instead - heh

[South Shore Slop]

 

[Nova737]

I just realized I got 1.58 in of rain here on tuesday, all from that one storm. That never happens. lol

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Nova737 said:

I just realized I got 1.58 in of rain here on tuesday, all from that one storm. That never happens. lol

I realized on Tuesday night I had only received .14 from that event, and only 2.91” MTD

[NorEastermass128]

54 minutes ago, South Shore Slop said:

 

Wow. That’s terrifying. 

[CoastalWx]

Holy ****. That’s insane.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean picture the scene...   The bald 7-year old with watery lenses, glances up through her iniquitous eyes to set them upon that vista you provided, an escape ...if just for a moment, for a world where freedom is always proven just a mirage on an bleak, uncertain horizon.  In that moment, you brought the heaven she's desperately hoping she may one day decide when it is time.  

"Karen Fowler?"  breaks the moment of serenity. As her father, holding  back his own tears, "Are you ready lollypop - let's go get better."    "Alright," she suserrates as she fiddles with her blanky. And as her father leads her in hand to that terrifying door, she looks over her shoulder one last time, and dreams. 

See, you could have been the deliverance - that gift from God.   But, nah ...these are just daily views.  Lol

Heavy stuff right there.  Glad you enjoyed the shot.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, South Shore Slop said:

 

Holy crap.  WTF.

[SouthCoastMA]

Makes me sick watching that.

hoping there were no children 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm beginning to wonder if that is headline-able heat Mon-Wed ... 

This 12z oper GFS run has expanded the y and x coordinate aspect of the heights associated with retrograde WAR ... now surpassing the advertized onset of the Pac NW ridge node.  Between the two, and having a very weak counterbalanced negative region separating, this is a now hemispheric scoped ordeal with positive anomalies.

In fact, said shear axis/weakening trough that separates the two is shallowing out over the last few runs - this is/was true in the Euro cluster too.   That is allowing for SW heat release to get sucked up into the continental conveyor.   Tracing the 850 mb plume back in time on the 00z Euro ..it originates over New Mexico and west Tx works it's way up and gets caught and trapped under this positive anomaly that has been growing in the last 3 cycles.  

It's turning into - or trying to ... time to mess it up - a serious heat impact scenario. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Makes me sick watching that.

hoping there were no children 

One child was recovered from the incident. He was calling for his mother but she didn't answer 

[South Shore Slop]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Makes me sick watching that.

hoping there were no children 

 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

One child was recovered from the incident. He was calling for his mother but she didn't answer 

 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm beginning to wonder if that is headline-able heat Mon-Wed ... 

This 12z oper GFS run has expanded the y and x coordinate aspect of the heights associated with retrograde WAR ... now surpassing the advertized onset of the Pac NW ridge node.  Between the two, and having a very weak counterbalanced negative region separating, this is a now hemispheric scoped ordeal with positive anomalies.

In fact, said shear axis/weakening trough that separates the two is shallowing out over the last few runs - this is/was true in the Euro cluster too.   That is allowing for SW heat release to get sucked up into the continental conveyor.   Tracing the 850 mb plume back in time on the 00z Euro ..it originates over New Mexico and west Tx works it's way up and gets caught and trapped under this positive anomaly that has been growing in the last 3 cycles.  

It's turning into - or trying to ... time to mess it up - a serious heat impact scenario. 

Yeah Monday is modeled pretty hot right now. U90s to 100F in that S NH/NE MA corridor. 00z Euro carried the 90-100F right into Thu, but the 12z goofus mucks it up after Monday. There's been some crazy heat around the US the past week.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah Monday is modeled pretty hot right now. U90s to 100F in that S NH/NE MA corridor. 00z Euro carried the 90-100F right into Thu, but the 12z goofus mucks it up after Monday. There's been some crazy heat around the US the past week.

Hey Brian ...can you delete my post making a tongue-n-cheek sleeping in, in that thing in Florida? - I didn't realize the scope of it at that time and thought at first it was a construction site that didn't have many people in it -

[KoalaBeer]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

- the 00z operational Euro has 18C with pocketed and plumes to 20C dappled within the chart, in a thermal layout at 850mb, smeared in a continental conveyor from Pittsburgh to the waters S of NS by 8 pm on that day.

The potential for that day is to outpace the machine guidance/interpretation tech.  However, the dice roll is in the ceiling/cloud expanse.  Though the air mass supports a hot day, it seems the model is bucking for more 700, 500 and 300 mb RH which lends to expectation for clouds and capping temp surely follows. 

Not sure though. We have a climate precedence in the area for when SW deep layer flows setup, to be bust the cloudier guidance as having been too much so - this could be one of those scenarios.  If so, the temperature part of the T and TD total pig bum may end up with bigger cheeks.  

That said, the DP is higher than previous guidance as well, with 65 to 70 already throughout the area.  So even if the temp does hold up at 84 to 86 ( which again...I have climo/modeling doubts given the synopsis ), that's what your traipsing around in out among the fairways ... that, and innumerate deer and horse flies doing mobius loops around your head and nape, while occasional sweat beads, cresting your brows, sting your eyes into blinking or shutting altogether right on your backstroke.

I'd be back at the club bar in A.C. and beer, asking them how it went when their soaked shirted frames piled back in myself.

Definitely copying this into the group chat with the guys I’m playing with on Sunday. There reaction should be priceless. 

Thats some terrible news coming out of Florida. So many things or a combination of them could have caused that. Sinkholes, dewatering from nearby construction, seawater seeping into the foundation from the limestone its built on top of, plus construction on the roof increasing load. These pictures I pulled off twitter show the scope of how big of a section collapsed.

credit- https://mobile.twitter.com/BoldlyBuilding2

 

[Typhoon Tip]

This is a Sunday through this next Wednesday heat wave.

Don't shake a stick at Sunday.  In fact ..it is not unprecedented, the entry into a warm departure event sometimes comes in more fervent than thought. I was just looking at the CMC run - which is my last of choice ...but fwiw -  that model has 576 dm thickness diurnally blossoming from BUF to PWM and down to DCA, in a WSW wind from the surface to 300 mb as height are rising over 590 ...all by 18z Sunday already.  I don't really have to look at much else when seeing that synoptic behavior ?   That's straight up over 90 for everywhere. 

This whole thing seems to have morphed away from an 88/76 Bahama Blue pattern ...into a more standard heat density model .. there is a kinetically charged 850 mb layer involved from the SW that's gotten into the modeling over the last couple few cycles, and the pressure pattern is more STL to BOS oriented now - GFS/GGEM.  ...we'll see what the Euro does but it was already sorta there in the 00z run.  As Brian mentioned, the point and click was 95 to 100.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is a Sunday through this next Wednesday heat wave.

Don't shake a stick at Sunday.  In fact ..it is not unprecedented, the entry into a warm departure event sometimes comes in more fervent than thought. I was just looking at the CMC run - which is my last of choice ...but fwiw -  that model has 576 dm thickness diurnally blossoming from BUF to PWM and down to DCA, in a WSW wind from the surface to 300 mb as height are rising over 590 ...all by 18z Sunday already.  I don't really have to look at much else when seeing that synoptic behavior ?   That's straight up over 90 for everywhere. 

This whole thing seems to have morphed away from an 88/76 Bahama Blue pattern ...into a more standard heat density model .. there is a kinetically charged 850 mb layer involved from the SW that's gotten into the modeling over the last couple few cycles, and the pressure pattern is more STL to BOS oriented now - GFS/GGEM.  ...we'll see what the Euro does but it was already sorta there in the 00z run.  As Brian mentioned, the point and click was 95 to 100.  

Shoot me 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Shoot me 

My goodness...

I mean if Tuesday can't make historic heat given this 12z Euro set up rollin' in - it just won't ever get hot here.   And we know it does so, heh-

At 12z it already has a plume of 20C at 850 mb escaping east of the area, and the surface pressure pattern has a lee side thermal trough from coastal Maine to interior eastern VA..

That's going to be one of those megalopolis 101ers if that is allowed to mature under a 18z to 21z open insolation soak.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Interesting ... CPC doesn't appear too interested.  They have zero hazards anywhere east of the GL for early next week, which is seems odd to me considering this specter has been growing in guidance of three days.

hm

[Damage In Tolland]

31 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Shoot me 

Buy it and relish 

[forkyfork]

dial every ridge up to 11

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Buy it and relish 

Put some relish on the hot dog roasting on the sidewalk next week?  Won’t even need a grill.

[powderfreak]

Had to spin up to the Picnic Tables briefly.  Another 10 out of 10 day.  Nice to see normal summer activities again with families enjoying themselves.  Almost a 40-degree diurnal swing in the valley so far.

Going to be 80F even up top next week.