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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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0.11" yesterday, 0.83" for June.  Maine's Steiniest locations (0.09" to 0.15") centered on the foothills.  (As usual)

Edit:  Farmington's driest May-June couplet in its 129-yr POR is 3.46" in 1980.  They had 1.54" last month so would need more than 1.91" to avert a new low.  If their RA this month is like mine, that's more than an additional inch - might be hard to come by.

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yesterday's cold front limped through and finally gets paralysis between Hatteras and Bermuda ...Soon it begins to retrograde W-N as a warm front, while going through frontalysis - it's remnant structure diffuses thru during the day on Friday. 

The MA to NE, east of Appalachia transitions into subtropical balm for the weekend. There should be rain in that transitioning window of time.  How much or how little.. Then on Saturday,  has to do with convective sensitivity in tropical air. But, these types of laminar stream-line Bahamian conveyors can sometimes set up training albeit narrow repeating CB conduits. 

Heights rise from an unusual direction. It's interesting that this has been prevalent in the Euro and GFS and their ensemble means for four or five days worth of cycles, during the Sun thru mid next week time span.  Get's harder to knock that consistency as mere noise.  It's an odd behavior, frankly - some variant of Bermuda/WAR  ( north of normal spatial layout) retrogrades west from the Atlantic but doing so such that Bermuda its self is below the ridge space. 

I don't trust anything the models are depicting after D6 in this scenario/guidance layout, because the whole thing of it is so highly unusual with that +6 SD 850 mb plume under non-hydrostatic heights so high they must be tickling the moon's ball hairs over lower British Columbia and the northern Rockies ... yet negative 850 mb temperatures suddenly over PHX-LAX ... The 00z runs seems to be spraying continuity turds into the fan.

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@jbenedet mentioned this a few days ago but it looks like the guidance is coming around a little low quickly developing in the next 24 hours off the NC coast before getting shunted north to muck up our Friday with clouds and maybe some rain.

Too bad the waters are frigid otherwise we’d be talking (weak) tropical. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@jbenedet mentioned this a few days ago but it looks like the guidance is coming around a little low quickly developing in the next 24 hours off the NC coast before getting shunted north to muck up our Friday with clouds and maybe some rain.

Too bad the waters are frigid otherwise we’d be talking (weak) tropical. 

Yeah runs have been looking wet the past couple of days on the hires models.

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19 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Has a tropical system of any note originating in the Carolinas ever affected SNE? Seems all the ones you hear about originate in either the Caribbean or Cape Verde? I’ll take whatever we can get lol 

None stick out to me. SSTs and the general landfall steering pattern favoring a TC rocketing north would almost always prevent a TC forming off the Carolinas from becoming a big system.

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31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@jbenedet mentioned this a few days ago but it looks like the guidance is coming around a little low quickly developing in the next 24 hours off the NC coast before getting shunted north to muck up our Friday with clouds and maybe some rain.

Too bad the waters are frigid otherwise we’d be talking (weak) tropical. 

 

In terms of a tropical threat—the Gulf Stream where this disturbance currently is, is certainly warm enough. The issue I see, especially out 12+ hrs  is dry air. 
 

Does still look like it will be an important pc of Friday’s weather forecast though...

09A82D44-FF96-4521-8BCD-8832074A6B6B.gif

55D480FF-4A36-431F-884E-46B254845F04.png

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9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

 

In terms of a tropical threat—the Gulf Stream where this disturbance currently is, is certainly warm enough. The issue I see, especially out 12+ hrs  is dry air. 
 

Does still look like it will be an important pc of Friday’s weather forecast though...

09A82D44-FF96-4521-8BCD-8832074A6B6B.gif

55D480FF-4A36-431F-884E-46B254845F04.png

Great point. It’d probably be enough north of the Gulf Stream for something subtropical SST wise but the airmass ahead is awfully dry. Maybe we can get a short term trend to something more robust. I’m bored lol.

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