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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The WAR is coming so don’t get all neurotic about the dryness…when there is WAR, there is tropical rains.

Teleconnection wise this could be transient. Looks like the WAR flexes over very short term and then we’re back in a -NAO ish regime. MJO phase 1 aligns similarly.

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From the SPC
 
...Northeast States...
   Water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough digging across the
   Great Lakes region, with the associated cold front sweeping across
   southeast Ontario and OH.  Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the
   60s to lower 70s ahead of the front, coupled with steep midlevel
   lapse rates shown on 12z raobs and model forecast soundings will
   yield a moderately unstable air mass by early afternoon (MLCAPE over
   2000 J/kg).  It appears thunderstorms will develop by early
   afternoon along the front - and in the free warm sector to the east.
    Vertical shear will be sufficient for a mix of multicell and
   occasional supercell structures, capable of damaging winds and large
   hail.  Low level shear is strongest over Quebec, but may be
   sufficient over parts of VT/NY for an isolated tornado or two as
   well.  Activity will sweep eastward across the ENH risk area through
   the early evening, before weakening as it approaches cooler
   marine-influenced air mass over eastern New England and NJ.
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14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Enhanced risk just added by the SPC for part of New England. Still waiting for the update to the SPC text. 

just took note of that.

interesting... I also noticed they shear off the hashing pretty abruptly E of rut-bdl New Haven line .. Can't say I blame them if by climate alone.  But, we seem to have generated some decent CAPE here from BOS-HFD and points N ...  I'm sure E CT and Providence are lower with the marine contamination; and I wonder if that start intruding farther north to overspread eastern sections - it almost seems it really should.

 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

just took note of that.

interesting... I also noticed they shear off the hashing pretty abruptly E of rut-bdl New Haven line .. Can't say I blame them if by climate alone.  But, we seem to have generated some decent CAPE here from BOS-HFD and points N ...  I'm sure E CT and Providence are lower with the marine contamination; and I wonder if that start intruding farther north to overspread eastern sections - it almost seems it really should.

 

Hi Tip, Is this basically the south wind killing our opportunities further east? 

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4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Hi Tip, Is this basically the south wind killing our opportunities further east? 

 

4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Hi Tip, Is this basically the south wind killing our opportunities further east? 

probably but not a certainty -

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91/67 at KLEB

 

Severe Thunderstorm watch up here:

 

from the BTV AFD:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1100 AM EDT Monday...Bottom line it will be an active day
with strong to severe storms expected this afternoon. Early
morning convection exiting the area as expected and satellite
imagery shows plenty of clearing to allow for highs in the mid
80s to lower 90s. Dew points already well into the 60s and this
will lead to CAPE values this afternoon in the 1500-2500 J/kg
range. Sufficient deep layer shear is already established over
the area and will only get stronger as the day progresses.
Expecting convection to develop along pre-frontal trough in the
vicinity of the Saint Lawrence Valley and western portions of
the northern Adirondacks of New York. Storms will quickly become
organized and move into more favorable instability to push
storms into the strong to severe category. With unidirectional
shear looking at wind damage as the main threat, but with all
the instability could see some isolated storms forming and
producing large hail. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours
will also accompany the storms as they move east into the
Champlain Valley and the remainder of Vermont.
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18 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

what's that?

Had 5 minutes of that just before 10 this morning, probably the heaviest RA here since last summer.  Glad to get the 0.27" because forecasts are continually reducing what to expect before the CAA ends the chances.  There's a realistic chance this whole bunch goes thru here dry, save for that morning surprise.

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9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Had 5 minutes of that just before 10 this morning, probably the heaviest RA here since last summer.  Glad to get the 0.27" because forecasts are continually reducing what to expect before the CAA ends the chances.  There's a realistic chance this whole bunch goes thru here dry, save for that morning surprise.

I'm already expecting it to. hopes and dreams always seems to slip away. lawn taking a beating on top of a beating

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18 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Very jealous.  I love the hills but the water has an extremely strong pull too.  The ocean is where summer lives.  That wide open space.

Sounds harsh.. But I only like NNE in winter. 

The bugs up north.... Kill me

Maybe I just don't know enough about the north to truly enjoy it.

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16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The cell north of Middlebury, VT and west of Lake George, NY look like they have some modest rotation. Lake George one looks like it could pop a hook. 

There are certainly some isolated cells that could take advantage of the environment, but not sure if there’s enough shear to make it happen. This cell up in Maine is certainly trying. 

If anyone’s interested go check out the lakes forum. Poster there intercepted that Chicago tornado last night. Nocturnal QLCS likely EF3 Tornado moving through a highly populated area...amazing there wasn’t fatalities. Good job by the NWS.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/ou_sams/status/1406837590775398403

https://mobile.twitter.com/ou_sams/status/1406832615643099136

BB2D1735-1302-4434-B9FA-629E7DE9850D.jpeg

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