WxWatcher007 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Enhanced risk just added by the SPC for part of New England. Still waiting for the update to the SPC text. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The WAR is coming so don’t get all neurotic about the dryness…when there is WAR, there is tropical rains. Teleconnection wise this could be transient. Looks like the WAR flexes over very short term and then we’re back in a -NAO ish regime. MJO phase 1 aligns similarly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Enhanced risk just added by the SPC for part of New England. Still waiting for the update to the SPC text. Congrats NW New England. The marine influence and late timing is going to kill anything down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 I wonder if a tornado watch goes out for those areas later on? edit: doesn’t look like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said: I do two of those three often and I’m not saying which two lol I’ve been married 20 years. I read and watch a lot of tv. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said: Congrats NW New England. The marine influence and late timing is going to kill anything down here. Let’s go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 From the SPC ...Northeast States... Water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough digging across the Great Lakes region, with the associated cold front sweeping across southeast Ontario and OH. Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s ahead of the front, coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates shown on 12z raobs and model forecast soundings will yield a moderately unstable air mass by early afternoon (MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg). It appears thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon along the front - and in the free warm sector to the east. Vertical shear will be sufficient for a mix of multicell and occasional supercell structures, capable of damaging winds and large hail. Low level shear is strongest over Quebec, but may be sufficient over parts of VT/NY for an isolated tornado or two as well. Activity will sweep eastward across the ENH risk area through the early evening, before weakening as it approaches cooler marine-influenced air mass over eastern New England and NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Enhanced risk just added by the SPC for part of New England. Still waiting for the update to the SPC text. just took note of that. interesting... I also noticed they shear off the hashing pretty abruptly E of rut-bdl New Haven line .. Can't say I blame them if by climate alone. But, we seem to have generated some decent CAPE here from BOS-HFD and points N ... I'm sure E CT and Providence are lower with the marine contamination; and I wonder if that start intruding farther north to overspread eastern sections - it almost seems it really should. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: just took note of that. interesting... I also noticed they shear off the hashing pretty abruptly E of rut-bdl New Haven line .. Can't say I blame them if by climate alone. But, we seem to have generated some decent CAPE here from BOS-HFD and points N ... I'm sure E CT and Providence are lower with the marine contamination; and I wonder if that start intruding farther north to overspread eastern sections - it almost seems it really should. Hi Tip, Is this basically the south wind killing our opportunities further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21, 2021 Author Share Posted June 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Hi Tip, Is this basically the south wind killing our opportunities further east? 4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Hi Tip, Is this basically the south wind killing our opportunities further east? probably but not a certainty - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 This air mass is legit. It was 81/69 and now is 87/69 at MVL. Upper 80s with near 70F dews. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that ASOS not mix out at least a little as the temp climbs. Temp keeps going up and dew point stays high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 BTV 88/69 and gusting almost 40mph out of the south. Feels like the Caribbean when it’s around 90F and the flags are straight out in a hairdryer wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 91/67 at KLEB Severe Thunderstorm watch up here: from the BTV AFD: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1100 AM EDT Monday...Bottom line it will be an active day with strong to severe storms expected this afternoon. Early morning convection exiting the area as expected and satellite imagery shows plenty of clearing to allow for highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Dew points already well into the 60s and this will lead to CAPE values this afternoon in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Sufficient deep layer shear is already established over the area and will only get stronger as the day progresses. Expecting convection to develop along pre-frontal trough in the vicinity of the Saint Lawrence Valley and western portions of the northern Adirondacks of New York. Storms will quickly become organized and move into more favorable instability to push storms into the strong to severe category. With unidirectional shear looking at wind damage as the main threat, but with all the instability could see some isolated storms forming and producing large hail. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours will also accompany the storms as they move east into the Champlain Valley and the remainder of Vermont. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 88/70. About as unpleasant as it gets around here. BTV 90/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 85/72 at a local PWS davis site... my backyard thermo shows 87F Pretty muggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Hopefully a derecho and picnic tables blown into Dendrite’s chicken coops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully a derecho and picnic tables blown into Dendrite’s chicken coops. pick ‘em up & take ‘em down 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Nice downpour just came through here in Burlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 74° and foggy in Falmouth. Feels a lot better than the 90° and humid we left back in Greenfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 31 minutes ago, klw said: Nice downpour just came through here in Burlington. what's that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 33 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: what's that? Very windy here too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: what's that? Had 5 minutes of that just before 10 this morning, probably the heaviest RA here since last summer. Glad to get the 0.27" because forecasts are continually reducing what to expect before the CAA ends the chances. There's a realistic chance this whole bunch goes thru here dry, save for that morning surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, tamarack said: Had 5 minutes of that just before 10 this morning, probably the heaviest RA here since last summer. Glad to get the 0.27" because forecasts are continually reducing what to expect before the CAA ends the chances. There's a realistic chance this whole bunch goes thru here dry, save for that morning surprise. I'm already expecting it to. hopes and dreams always seems to slip away. lawn taking a beating on top of a beating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 The cell north of Middlebury, VT and west of Lake George, NY look like they have some modest rotation. Lake George one looks like it could pop a hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 18 hours ago, powderfreak said: Very jealous. I love the hills but the water has an extremely strong pull too. The ocean is where summer lives. That wide open space. Sounds harsh.. But I only like NNE in winter. The bugs up north.... Kill me Maybe I just don't know enough about the north to truly enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The cell north of Middlebury, VT and west of Lake George, NY look like they have some modest rotation. Lake George one looks like it could pop a hook. There are certainly some isolated cells that could take advantage of the environment, but not sure if there’s enough shear to make it happen. This cell up in Maine is certainly trying. If anyone’s interested go check out the lakes forum. Poster there intercepted that Chicago tornado last night. Nocturnal QLCS likely EF3 Tornado moving through a highly populated area...amazing there wasn’t fatalities. Good job by the NWS. https://mobile.twitter.com/ou_sams/status/1406837590775398403 https://mobile.twitter.com/ou_sams/status/1406832615643099136 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Quick spin up on this one? Would have been pretty much impossible to warn in time. That is the land of the moose though, don’t see any structures around that whole lake on google maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Some thunder rumbling here in Burlington but nothing really memorable so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Some good lightning just to the south of downtown Burlington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 23 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said: Quick spin up on this one? Would have been pretty much impossible to warn in time. That is the land of the moose though, don’t see any structures around that whole lake on google maps. Two TOR Warnings out by CAR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now