Cyclone-68 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Honestly I think we're doing okay as far as hitting quotas. I read the return rate ..well, we should all just know this by now, is 30-years for that sort of parabolic express job, but with a peppering of in-betweeners that remind us we're at the party, just not in the popular crowd - heh. The problem is, the atmosphere doesn't abide by human definitions. Isabel, not on the above list, still ( imho ) probably counts in that equation more than we would like it to. Ultimately, it didn't affect much here, but it was a Verdi opera that sang along he EC in general and "Earth" ... you know? Just because a TC doesn't layout according to some idealized Cat 3 moving at 50mph, bifurcating LI and grinding off the tops of Wachusett and Monadnock summits like a circular sander, the TC still makes the cut. We've had Tropical Storms fit, too. Which one was that? It came up and road along the beaches from Norfolk to NYC and brought like 20" or rain to VT. I think that was “Irene” but not 100% on that Edit: still N of pike nails it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2021 Author Share Posted June 17, 2021 Right right - Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 We've had some decaying strong TS events, but look at the 50s to 1960. Imagine that period. Legit storms too. I don't mean a gust to 55kts at an exposed hurricane barrier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We've had some decaying strong TS events, but look at the 50s to 1960. Imagine that period. Legit storms too. I don't mean a gust to 55kts at an exposed hurricane barrier. That’s what I and others experienced. That’s why I tend to meh everything since. Bob was legit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s what I and others experienced. That’s why I tend to meh everything since. Bob was legit though. Gloria was decent where I was. Bob was the classic sort of meh NW of the track, except for rains. It hammered the Cape though. But yeah, things have been fairly benign on the tropical front overall in SNE. At least as far as Cat 1s and above go. Irene had a fairly big hydro impact and caused issues on the CT shoreline with cstl flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2021 Author Share Posted June 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s what I and others experienced. That’s why I tend to meh everything since. Bob was legit though. Yeah and it helps elaborate the "stats lie" concept - too. I mean, so the return rate for more idealized strong hurricane Express is 20 or 30 years. But, that flurry of the mid century might skew that some? I mean they have cane stats going back to antiquity ...when some anecdotals, written in "ye ole souther doth rose a fierce clatter upon the morrow" type lost on me speak that we can guess or deduce were hurricanes - after they were decoded of course haha Kidding but I saw a Science Channel thing about the Atlantic. There are coastal sedimentary studies from Ches. Bay clear up to the head of Buzzard's that argue there have either been bigger hurricanes in the past, or a helluva more rich tsunamis history than anything witnessed since white man settled the West (whether invited or not). The same show talked about the Canary dooms-day clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2021 Author Share Posted June 17, 2021 Mm... to each his own in the interpretation vs expectation but, I don't think we are "due" if that's the tug in the conversation. Of course I'm not a big fan of 'due' anything. I mean, we'll get the first bona fide Cat 4 hurricane after a Cat 1 makes a similar pass three weeks earlier that same season - like on purpose to f' with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah and it helps elaborate the "stats lie" concept - too. I mean, so the return rate for more idealized strong hurricane Express is 20 or 30 years. But, that flurry of the mid century might skew that some? I mean they have cane stats going back to antiquity ...when some anecdotals, written in "ye ole souther doth rose a fierce clatter upon the morrow" type lost on me speak that we can guess or deduce were hurricanes - after they were decoded of course haha Kidding but I saw a Science Channel thing about the Atlantic. There are coastal sedimentary studies from Ches. Bay clear up to the head of Buzzard's that argue there have either been bigger hurricanes in the past, or a helluva more rich tsunamis history than anything witnessed since white man settled the West (whether invited or not). The same show talked about the Canary dooms-day clock GINX has posted some interesting info regarding this over the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gloria was decent where I was. Bob was the classic sort of meh NW of the track, except for rains. It hammered the Cape though. But yeah, things have been fairly benign on the tropical front overall in SNE. At least as far as Cat 1s and above go. Irene had a fairly big hydro impact and caused issues on the CT shoreline with cstl flooding. As someone living in Dedham then I have zero recollection of Bob whatsoever which makes sense given what you mentioned living northwest of the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 WRKO just referred to today as a chamber of commerce day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said: As someone living in Dedham then I have zero recollection of Bob whatsoever which makes sense given what you mentioned living northwest of the track Yeah. I lived in Brockton and although there was some damage, I was expecting a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2021 Author Share Posted June 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah. I lived in Brockton and although there was some damage, I was expecting a lot more. I think if memory serves the forecasters of the era were not sure if that track would resolve that way - some of the guidance took it farther N before the right slope... That turn probably spared BOS-PVD from a real flogging - I had moved to Michigan for that autumn and winter to take care of grandfather's house as he wasn't doing too well. He did die a year later.. but I was there and miss Bob, but thankfully, also the awful winter that followed for y'all. But we had one storm in Michigan that whole winter, 8" of snow that smelled like rain at 33 F. So, it wasn't a good year in the Lakes either. I moved back the immediate following spring, and that was the year of the 1992 December storm - the 2nd best event of my life behind the Cleveland Superbomb. Not sure why I said all that... I guess it's chain-linked in memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 22 hours ago, moneypitmike said: I can’t let these days slip by down here. Heading up to Pit2 at the crack of dawn. Fish, work, fish, sleep, repeat. Got here at 8:30–took a handful of casts before work. Managed a small striper—a good kickoff to the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think if memory serves the forecasters of the era were not sure if that track would resolve that way - some of the guidance took it farther N before the right slope... That turn probably spared BOS-PVD from a real flogging - I had moved to Michigan for that autumn and winter to take care of grandfather's house as he wasn't doing too well. He did die a year later.. but I was there and miss Bob, but thankfully, also the awful winter that followed for y'all. But we had one storm in Michigan that whole winter, 8" of snow that smelled like rain at 33 F. So, it wasn't a good year in the Lakes either. I moved back the immediate following spring, and that was the year of the 1992 December storm - the 2nd best event of my life behind the Cleveland Superbomb. Not sure why I said all that... I guess it's chain-linked in memory. Ha good memories there. And yeah 91-92, blech. I think the first real decent event fell on the first day of spring in ‘92. That cancelled school. The pain continued that summer in what was a mini “year without a summer” after Pinatubo erupted. 58 and rain on July 4th. Effing terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said: As someone living in Dedham then I have zero recollection of Bob whatsoever which makes sense given what you mentioned living northwest of the track Wind field must have spread out as Bob traveled northward, as our inland location 9 mi. south of AUG had gusts probably near 60 judged by tree and powerline damage. Kept the RA though, 6.42" at my place, greatest calendar-day dump I've measured. Also the only TC in which the backside NW-lies were as powerful as the earlier SE winds - had trees toppled in opposite directions on the same acre - though 95% of RA came before the switch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Excellent clip.... thanks for the reminder. Haven't seen it in years. COC 72/41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 5 hours ago, dendrite said: Pretty COC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 00z NAM is like 91/72 at Logan 4pm Sat. I’m sure MOS’ll cap the DP at 66 but that’s not how that day’s type of fresh warm sector intrusion synopsis typically works. Hills out in the distance will be blue tinted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Widespread 40s again this fine morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Widespread 40s again this fine morning. See the D5 GFS with the 540 dm thickness over Ontario ? wow It's 'symbolically' if perhaps suggestive/inferred in climate history, why the 4th of July weekend may be the hottest ever - hyperbolic speaking lol. Seriously though, this June 22nd through the 4th of July has carried some "smoldering" attributes in the lingering AAM mode, combined with ridging trying to re-anchor between California and HA. These separate telecons converge and point toward higher highs over eastern N/A. I have noticed many, many times in the past, these sort of odd anomalies (540 over Ontario is deep for June) get kissed within a month by either an equal or aggregate series that ends up leveling the numbers. 540 now, 600 then Yet, that 540 is happening while these base-line larger/super-synoptic 'tendencies' are not being realized in the operational runs. I'm waiting for a guidance cycle to burst through and throw up a bigger 5H anomaly E of 100W more obviously. Metaphor is rubber band being pulled taut. 00z Euro illustrates 594+ dm, SE of Cape Cod on D10. That is probably overdoing it, but in principle it is not a terrible idea given above. Operational GFS is the last model in the bevy of tools to look for that at extended leads due to its cumulative cooling tendency on the polar side of the westerlies,, out in time. It's always 3 to as much at 12 dm colder in the geopotential medium of the Ferrel latitude trough nodes and ambience by D10 it seems. It's a band sander always grinding, and just scalps heights from rising at mid latitudes like an irate Apache. By the way folks, sneaking hot days tomorrow thru Tuesday? Nothing major.. 88 to 91. I really wasn't paying too much attention. I took a closer look when the 00z NAM was in with 27 C at T1 ( 980 mb) over Logan by late Sat afternoon. With lower ceiling RH ( 700 and 500 mb levels), and solar max open insolation lasing to/thru the planetary boundary, a WSW wind, this will probably will bust machine ( MOS ) by a 1-3 F there. I suggest it could nick 90 at BDL/FIT/ASH and provided the BOS stays above 230 on the wind dial there too. I'm unsure on the DPs though. Seems they should be a lot higher than these MOS/blended MOS products are putting up. interesting - But the Euro has 18 to 20C 850s in a SW flow from PHL to BOS on Monday and Tues, with thickness in the mid 570s. Eigh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 EPS later next week into weekend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Soaking for the cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 I'll take this weather until October. Thanks in advance... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Soaking for the cape? Would love to see a lot of that tropical moisture soak the garden next week, but I'm guessing that the best stays south like most everything else this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Soaking for the cape? Eh, earlier in the week it looked better for us. Would need a northward shift to bring something more meaningful to SE NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 That will go east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Saturday storm chances dwindling...dry times ahead, besides the dews. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 20 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Saturday storm chances dwindling...dry times ahead, besides the dews. The DPs hurting - without them, the CAPE are low. Prior runs looked more theta-e loaded with the in-bursting heat. Today may creep to 84/49 type warmth. It appears there is a diffused warm boundary tomorrow morning and near 90 heat sweeps in, but the theta-e appears to lag until Sunday. Which by then the wind max/S/W, will have moved out leaving probably 91 with 65 to 70DP by Sunday at 5 pm with mainly sun/fair skies and lazily wobbling flags. SPC still has us in marginal however - In fact, MOS products continue to creep higher for Sun and Mon, now 88 at KFIT and 89 at KASH. This may turn out to be a low grade heat wave for BDL-FIT-ASH-MHT and BOS if the wind can stay more 230, because all sites should be 91 to 95 on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 The tropical stuff Monday into Tuesday could be fun too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: The tropical stuff Monday into Tuesday could be fun too Heh... I think that's over amped in the runs. we'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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