June, 2021 Discussion

[CoastalWx]

Couple shots of warmth and dews this weekend and maybe mid week before another COC shot comes. That nuclear ridge out west is keeping the uber heat out there for the time being. I do think as we head into July, aside from climo alone, it will warm.

[Spanks45]

1 day trip to Delaware yesterday, came home at midnight to a frigid house. 39.7⁰ this morning. Is this really June?

[Difflock]

41° here

[CoastalWx]

40 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

1 day trip to Delaware yesterday, came home at midnight to a frigid house. 39.7⁰ this morning. Is this really June?

Reminds me of a stretch we had in June 2011. I only remember it because of the Stanley cup. Left my friend's place at like 1a with it being 39 on the car thermo.

[CoastalWx]

Time to warm it up a bit though. Should be a warm one Saturday, especially if we get a decent amount of sun. 

[kdxken]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Time to warm it up a bit though. Should be a warm one Saturday, especially if we get a decent amount of sun. 

Your vacation week is looking tip top. You get a little bit of your heat and the rest is comfortable..

[Typhoon Tip]

It really appears to me there is a kind of multi-season pattern of predictable tendencies, relative to calendar times - the whole year has a predictability to it. The new seasonal profile is here.

October/Nov snows (and I feel those Dec snow storms that are prior to Xmass fit this)  -->

raging gradient destructive interference winters -->

blocky springs with variable record heat modulating wildly to late cold/snow and back -->

an early summer heat wave that retrogrades west into a +PNAP anomalous circulation that still host some warm temperature if by virtue of the hemispheric footprint still being in summer hgts.

That's it.  That's been each year, and seems this overall paradigm has been reproducible since 2010 .. 2012.    No, not exact - hence the term "tendency"

 

[Typhoon Tip]

00z Euro nearly misses a single day synoptic-heat burst on Sunday, tho.  Thrust is S of us, but as is we side swipe by +16.5 C at 850 mb. In west wind, sun thru modest ceiling RH will probably send the temp over 2-meter/machine model output given the usual locals.   I'd say 92 to 94 adjusting for Euro vision.

It's weird, that short wave late Saturday doesn't have any backside CAA.  It gets warmer on Sunday. 

That whole look out there between Sat next Tuesday or so, it almost smacks as a -EPO dump, where a trough punches down the Canadian high country, and tips the flow up the eastern seaboard ( temporary); and as the -EPO collapses, this sends the +PNA rise.  That's why these two have a lagged positive correlation.  -EPO/-PNA --> tend to end up in a +EPO/+PNA, because the -EPO ridge retros toward the SW...etc.   I realize that 10 out of 100 users have a clue what I'm talking about but - you can always google this shit and use the web for something other than e-addiction to cultural pap. Lol - nah. 

Anyway, not exactly ? But it looks like this highly amplified +PNA out there is sort of mock behaving that way, and it may be enough to sneak a low grade heat 88-93 up our way. 

Either way, it ends with that trough finally rotating through southern Canada mid week - albeit, probably at a slightly lesser ampilfied total beef than the models are showing - that's been almost a 1::1 correlated dependency error; both Euro and GFS, these models are automatically 10 to 30% some odd over mechanically drafting anything between D 4 + they see out there.  Then, we end up with something less gorked when it gets < than ~ D4.5

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, BrianW said:

Does a car struggle in that kind of heat? Is there less power? I would think the ac would have a hard time keeping up. Imagine a black car outside turned off with the windows up in that heat. The inside would probably melt. 

When my wife and daughter were at the Grand Canyon several decades ago, they met a fellow from Flagstaff who said he stopped going to Phoenix during the summer.  Last time he'd made the summer visit, he had an Instamatic camera on the dash as he did some shopping, and when he returned the camera case was dripping onto the floor.

This morning's GFS384 showed 0.8" precip on June 29-30, which would raise June's total from 0.7" to 1.5", thus keeping my 1.22" as June's lowest here.  Out at clown range of course, but if it were to verify it would make 5 months in the past 13 to avert a record dryness because of a late month event, usually last day or 2 days.  Statistical fluke but still strange.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It really appears to me there is a kind of multi-season pattern of predictable tendencies, relative to calendar times - the whole year has a predictability to it. The new seasonal profile is here.

October/Nov snows (and I feel those Dec snow storms that are prior to Xmass fit this)  -->

raging gradient destructive interference winters -->

blocky springs with variable record heat modulating wildly to late cold/snow and back -->

an early summer heat wave that retrogrades west into a +PNAP anomalous circulation that still host some warm temperature if by virtue of the hemispheric footprint still being in summer hgts.

That's it.  That's been each year, and seems this overall paradigm has been reproducible since 2010 .. 2012.    No, not exact - hence the term "tendency"

 

Seems there is something to these observations 

[Chrisrotary12]

It's too bad its not going to be 10 degrees warmer on Saturday.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Today is perfect , F the heat 

[Chrisrotary12]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Today is perfect , F the heat 

Oh I agree. I was just asking for 10 more degrees on Saturday to increase lapse rates.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

It's too bad its not going to be 10 degrees warmer on Saturday.

Did you see the 12z NAM

my my...

Has a pig surge of theta-e/CAPE and torridity punching to southern NH but ..granted it's a late arrival in the afternoon.

In this hemisphere - however - I wouldn't have any compunctions about speeding up the timing of the total synoptic manifold there - which 'might' mean earlier warm air mass intrusion in the atmosphere/afternoon.   Logon bounces to a 2-meter potential of 30 C by 00z Sunday, so probably 21z is the warm front timing on this 12z cycle - again ...negotiable in my mind.

That's the fuel..  Lapse rates are so-so, but - LGA, to 32 2-meter now!!  Might be trending ...

- the mechanics/forcing come by way of a pretty impress mid lvl ( 500 mb but didn't check the U/A or 700 ), right entrance nosing into NY/PA during the afternoon and it's a more a unidirection shear bomb with modest direction probably supporting a kind of quasi derecho or in the least bowing segmentation.  

SPC has us in a marginal hashing now and my experience - and yours I'm sure - on any D3 conv. outlook for New England, that'll likely get bumped to 'slght' by the time whence.

[Cyclone-68]

FWIW the “point and click” has most of us in the mid 80’s Saturday?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Oh I agree. I was just asking for 10 more degrees on Saturday to increase lapse rates.

Some folks say they can’t stand mid 70’s in summer but then when it hits 90 at their hood they go down to The water where it’s 75.  Usually cooler days inland are offshore winds with temps at most beaches same as inland 

[kdxken]

22 minutes ago, tamarack said:

When my wife and daughter were at the Grand Canyon several decades ago, they met a fellow from Flagstaff who said he stopped going to Phoenix during the summer.  Last time he'd made the summer visit, he had an Instamatic camera on the dash as he did some shopping, and when he returned the camera case was dripping onto the floor.

This morning's GFS384 showed 0.8" precip on June 29-30, which would raise June's total from 0.7" to 1.5", thus keeping my 1.22" as June's lowest here.  Out at clown range of course, but if it were to verify it would make 5 months in the past 13 to avert a record dryness because of a late month event, usually last day or 2 days.  Statistical fluke but still strange.

Totally believable. I was in Phoenix during a heat wave. AC on the rental car stopped working and the air vent melted off when I tried to adjust it.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Some folks say they can’t stand mid 70’s in summer but then when it hits 90 at their hood they go down to The water where it’s 75.  Usually cooler days inland are offshore winds with temps at most beaches same as inland 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Some folks say they can’t stand mid 70’s in summer but then when it hits 90 at their hood they go down to The water where it’s 75.  Usually cooler days inland are offshore winds with temps at most beaches same as inland 

I'm a hypocritical douche when it comes to heat.

I love the synoptic anticipation of them - the markers and telecon spread monitoring and the predictive 'art' and science in nailing the onset of a 1995'er or this recent one ( actually ..) which was sort of historic under the radar here in New England for a lesser considered metric of longevity ( 5 days in early June - oooo kay)...etc., these are interesting and fascinating challenges.  And watching them unfold and gawking over thermometer scalar values some afternoon at 2:49 pm while it's 98.6 and a hundo's in reach -

Walking across a parking lot ?    I hate all of humanity and inanimate objects and start kicking shit that gets in the way.  It looses it's appeal pretty fast in any setting.  Not sure what to make of this - love the former aspect/journey, hate the destination I suppose.   weird - heh

Kind of like ice-storms?   I feel a similar phenomenon when it comes to accretion thick enough to bend down intercontinental journey line towers. The meteorological aspects are an utterly enthralling run up.  That appeal disappears about at the same rate as the lights going out, however, finding one standing there realizing that the only thing in the universe given to you is your ability to take a next breath in a paralyzed stasis of silence and inability to do much of anything else -  In fact, I'd say ice storms are probably even a more extreme version of this dichotomy of intents and purposes LOL

[GCWarrior]

Perfect week for the last few days of school!  Well done mother nature, well done!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Well articulated 

[Typhoon Tip]

Saturday looks thread worthy for convection to me. 

We haven't had an event -centered thread in while, and though it is talking convection in a powdered fu-up just add reason to do so region of the country, these parametrics look quite decent to me

With better warm intrusion appearing in these latter run, the lapse rates are likely improving ( or steepening,...); meanwhile, those attending wind mechanics with right entrance into astride j-max ... that idea has been solid in the guidance across the board. Timing looks good, 18 thru  03 Z ALB - to Scott's hood ...

Just noticing some of the meso models are taking an early stab at linear looks.   SPC has marginal, but I'm telling you, should these continue that'll need upgraded -

[dendrite]

7 hours ago, kdxken said:

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds from the Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic,
providing New England with dry weather, warm days, cool nights and
comfortable humidity into Thursday. Turning warmer Friday but
humidity remains low

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm a hypocritical douche when it comes to heat.

I love the synoptic anticipation of them - the markers and telecon spread monitoring and the predictive 'art' and science in nailing the onset of a 1995'er or this recent one ( actually ..) which was sort of historic under the radar here in New England for a lesser considered metric of longevity ( 5 days in early June - oooo kay)...etc., these are interesting and fascinating challenges.  And watching them unfold and gawking over thermometer scalar values some afternoon at 2:49 pm while it's 98.6 and a hundo's in reach -

Walking across a parking lot ?    I hate all of humanity and inanimate objects and start kicking shit that gets in the way.  It looses it's appeal pretty fast in any setting.  Not sure what to make of this - love the former aspect/journey, hate the destination I suppose.   weird - heh

Kind of like ice-storms?   I feel a similar phenomenon when it comes to accretion thick enough to bend down intercontinental journey line towers. The meteorological aspects are an utterly enthralling run up.  That appeal disappears about at the same rate as the lights going out, however, finding one standing there realizing that the only thing in the universe given to you is your ability to take a next breath in a paralyzed stasis of silence and inability to do much of anything else -  In fact, I'd say ice storms are probably even a more extreme version of this dichotomy of intents and purposes LOL

I find this to be the case for myself when I’m chasing snow storms (But with a tad more enjoyment during )  . Anyone here knows I will travel to any spot I can wedge my car to experience a heavy snowfall but the Actual excitement level of watching dentrites pile up (either outside in a snow suit) or while watching radar / and the window from inside a hotel room is not thaaat rewarding in the moment . Some of it I think is escaping an area where it will be raining . 
 

The biggest exception I have to this is my fascination with large barreling swells . The anticipation of tracking them is not nearly that of a nor’easter , it’s more of a silent knowing of what’s coming a couple days down the road (also nobody else seems to care lol ) but when you are on the jetty or cliff or shoreline and these 1-2 story swells are crashing close to me , it’s much much more enjoyable . I have a hard time leaving 

Cat 1-2 canes also offer a big lead up of excitement and also a exciting experience (especially if it’s not crawling along ) and not a house I’m invested in . Those are awesome- had a few in Florida  

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I find this to be the case for myself when I’m chasing snow storms (But with a tad more enjoyment during )  . Anyone here knows I will travel to any spot I can wedge my car to experience a heavy snowfall but the Actual excitement level of watching dentrites pile up (either outside in a snow suit) or while watching radar / and the window from inside a hotel room is not thaaat rewarding in the moment . Some of it I think is escaping an area where it will be raining . 
 

The biggest exception I have to this is my fascination with large barreling swells . The anticipation of tracking them is not nearly that of a nor’easter , it’s more of a silent knowing of what’s coming a couple days down the road (also nobody else seems to care lol ) but when you are on the jetty or cliff or shoreline and these 1-2 story swells are crashing close to me , it’s much much more enjoyable . I have a hard time leaving 

Cat 1-2 canes also offer a big lead up of excitement and also a exciting experience (especially if it’s not crawling along ) and not a house I’m invested in . Those are awesome- had a few in Florida  

The closest I ever came to a headlong experience with a hurricane was 'Gloria' in 1985.  I was living in Acton/ fam. I doubt we saw 74.5 mph winds that far inland, but timbre cracks were frequent for a couple of hours in probably routine gusting to 60 .. 65.

I can assure, the journey before the storm AND the storm its self, was a constant seamless crescendo of awe.  I hate this word but, 'transcended' was the power of the wind as the straining 200 year old oak and maple, and the deafening white noise mixed with timbre claps as massive limb failures rained ... I guess the word is apropos.

The power went out, which I loathe ... but where ice storms fail to recoup a sense of 'worth it,'  Gloria did not. She was really very good at suck and blow... hahaha... sorry. Anyway but on Sept 15 or whatever as it were, it wasn't that big of a deal to a young guy. It was mild and we had planned with tuna and ham sandwiches.   It did get chilly toward the end of the week as the trough that drew the cane up the expressway came through with a shot across the bow air mass. But the power was only out for 3 days. 

Ha, as an after thought, I remember later in school the next week people were bantering about how bad the winter was probably going to be because of Gloria.  I remember thinking simultaneously how eerily portending and tempting it was, while knowing it was ludicrous.  Indeed, I think 1985-1986 might have been rock-bottom for that truly abysmal decade ... This area of the world seemed to pay for 1978 eternally - speaking of irrational causation

[Cyclone-68]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The closest I ever came to a headlong experience with a hurricane was 'Gloria' in 1985.  I was living in Acton/ fam. I doubt we saw 74.5 mph winds that far inland, but timbre cracks were frequent for a couple of hours in probably routine gusting to 60 .. 65.

I can assure, the journey before the storm AND the storm its self, was a constant seamless crescendo of awe.  I hate this word but, 'transcended' was the power of the wind as the straining 200 year old oak and maple, and the deafening white noise mixed with timbre claps as massive limb failures rained ... I guess the word is apropos.

The power went out, which I loathe ... but where ice storms fail to recoup a sense of 'worth it,'  Gloria did not. She was really very good and suck and blow... hahaha... sorry. Anyway but on Sept 15 or whatever it was, it wasn't that big of a deal to a young guy. It was mild and we had planned with tuna and ham sandwiches.   It did get chilly toward the end of the week as the trough that drew the cane up the expressway came through with a shot across the bow air mass. But the power was only out for 3 days. 

 

Who’d have thunk that sans Bob (not Cape Verde) that would be the only Cape Verdean hurricane to directly impact NE in over 36 years?

[weathafella]

Been a coc week in Chicagoland.  Coolish especially by the lake past 2 days.  Warm today but dews quite low.  Little isolated cell moving in but we’re inside with family at infusion center with no windows.  May have to go outside….

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Who’d have thunk that sans Bob (not Cape Verde) that would be the only Cape Verdean hurricane to directly impact NE in over 36 years?

Honestly I think we're doing okay as far as hitting quotas.

I read the return rate ..well, we should all just know this by now, is 30-years for that sort of parabolic express job, but with a peppering of in-betweeners that remind us we're at the party, just not in the popular crowd - heh.  

The problem is, the atmosphere doesn't abide by human definitions.   Isabel, not on the above list, still ( imho ) probably counts in that equation more than we would like it to. Ultimately, it didn't affect much here, but it was a Verdi opera that sang along he EC in general and to "Earth" ... you know?   Just because a TC doesn't layout according to some idealized Cat 3 moving at 50mph, bifurcating LI and grinding off the tops of Wachusett and Monadnock summits like a circular sander, the TC still makes the cut.  But yeah, "any" affect at all is a different stat vs the return rate for ideal impact scenarios -

We've had Tropical Storms fit, too. Which one was that?  It came up and rode along the beaches from Norfolk to NYC and brought like 20" or rain to VT.    

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Irene