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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

My point is... if one is basing the frontal position on DPs, that may not be right

Ya re read your post and got what you were referring to with the downsloping coming off the whites. But also Laconias DP has dropped from 62.1 -> 57.2 in 31 minutes. Seems a little much to not be the front no? 

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7 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Ya re read your post and got what you were referring to with the downsloping coming off the whites. But also Laconias DP has dropped from 62.1 -> 57.2 in 31 minutes. Seems a little much to not be the front no? 

Well sure. Lac is getting pretty close to the boundary anyway so heh, impetus on "quasi stationary"  - I hate that expression anyway.  I mean, they'll analyze these boundaries as stationary, as it is moving south on every analysis :arrowhead:    Annoying.

Anyway, yeah yeah... got are we bored LOL

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This memo just came across our desks

 

 the National Weather Service (NWS) is forecasting scattered thunderstorms for the interior portions of the state this afternoon into early evening. The greatest risk for thunderstorm activity is between 2pm- 8pm as a cold front pushes through the region, ending the heat and humidity. The primary threat with these storms is frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and urban/poor drainage flood potential along with a secondary threat for strong to damaging winds and hail.

umm really

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This memo just came across our desks

 

 the National Weather Service (NWS) is forecasting scattered thunderstorms for the interior portions of the state this afternoon into early evening. The greatest risk for thunderstorm activity is between 2pm- 8pm as a cold front pushes through the region, ending the heat and humidity. The primary threat with these storms is frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and urban/poor drainage flood potential along with a secondary threat for strong to damaging winds and hail.

umm really

Yup came across my desk too.  Got me in a pants tent but it seems a bit aggressive. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This memo just came across our desks

 

 the National Weather Service (NWS) is forecasting scattered thunderstorms for the interior portions of the state this afternoon into early evening. The greatest risk for thunderstorm activity is between 2pm- 8pm as a cold front pushes through the region, ending the heat and humidity. The primary threat with these storms is frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and urban/poor drainage flood potential along with a secondary threat for strong to damaging winds and hail.

umm really

Unless they see that line in the Albany area and believe that  might help trigger further East?

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Ya I don’t know maybe Southeast MA gets in on some goods later based off meso models. Not seeing to much to go that aggressive on a discussion. Without looking at any data, these hot New England days rarely seem to produce hail, and more in the way of tropical downpours without way better dynamics. Paging @weatherwiz for a :weenie: take. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean 90/72 here and there is a visible cu field N-W of here with some crispy towers ... Thing is, you can erupt really, really fast with this kind of environment.   90/72 + a cold front = notice, I suppose

You can sort of see that happening near Springfield 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well sure. Lac is getting pretty close to the boundary anyway so heh, impetus on "quasi stationary"  - I hate that expression anyway.  I mean, they'll analyze these boundaries as stationary, as it is moving south on every analysis :arrowhead:    Annoying.

Anyway, yeah yeah... got are we bored LOL

It’s a little shallow initially…they may have been indicating it getting hung up a bit in the high terrain, but you can clearly see it’s moving on vis.

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1 hour ago, KoalaBeer said:

Ya I don’t know maybe Southeast MA gets in on some goods later based off meso models. Not seeing to much to go that aggressive on a discussion. Without looking at any data, these hot New England days rarely seem to produce hail, and more in the way of tropical downpours without way better dynamics. Paging @weatherwiz for a :weenie: take. 

Despite lackluster shear there has been sufficient CAPE in the hailgrowth zone these past few days to warrant the strongest cores to produce hail. 

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