June, 2021 Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

Yesterday was interesting. 

The persistent reloading of CB mass into the Springfield area, sent so much over-shadowing mid and upper level anvil span that it stymied any convection for the larger area. 

Up across southern NH, just outside the northern dispersion of the anvil plume, CBs fired there.  But any town along and S of Rt 2, and along and N of the Pike ended up with mosquito rain barely able to wet the streets.

[weatherwiz]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Meanwhile, a specter of a heat wave across California is formulating out there D6-10 that would best last August and reach deadly caliber if the trend doesn't "seasonalize".  Talking even coast, with 101 to 105 into the Bay Area down to L.A., with off-shore flow setting up under the highest solar max time of the year.  +24 to 31 C at 850, with d-slope winds compressing that to sea-level. 

Two words:  bake bread

Just bringing it up because we are [apparently] about to seesaw some rather extraordinary "hemispheric"-scaled anomaly layouts.  It's a different implication in my mind when 'Earth' is is doing the oscillating, not just some regional biases moving about - interesting

I was looking at that yesterday...that would be pretty ugly. Kinda afraid that could be a pre-cursor to a sustained pattern across the West. 

[Typhoon Tip]

48 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I was looking at that yesterday...that would be pretty ugly. Kinda afraid that could be a pre-cursor to a sustained pattern across the West. 

I have been wondering about that, my self.  

If that is to be the case, I don't believe it would be established over the next two weeks.  Short version summary:   hot here, hot there, back to hot here, across the three week oscillating hemisphere. And during, it is like our region just did, they may transit through. 

Longer version. The hemisphere is 'sloshing'   Why? It may be an like an emergent wave function that results as a 2ndary super-synoptic emergent behavior from all the interior wave components of the circulation system carrying about. They cause the scaffold to "wobble" back and forth.  That's a fascinating hypothesis to me, anyway.  The next wobble 'might come back east.  

Perhaps way out there...toward mid July, these grand-scaled 'giga-motions' will find a rest state - probably with a ridge in the middle, with two vague 'dents' in the westerlies sagging on either coast... when Chicago is lazed off the face of the planet by shade temperatures of 110 heh. It may be the westerlies really do break down by then, but if persistence bears any usefulness, it may also just be a slower decay; in which case their heat, a new sag or depression toward California --> heat to comes back east, before any such summer rest state arrives.

But I have been watching the expanse of the Pacific Basin's mid level wave-train in the modeling.  There's a definitive tendency going on now, through D6, to retrograde a very impressive ridge anomaly from NE of Hawaii, to NW of Hawaii.  

As that occurs, this switches the sign of the PNA from (-) to (+) in winter.   But this is summer, and the PNA is not supposed to be correlated well-enough in J/J/A to bother calculating the cross-correlation matrix at Climate Diagnostic Center ( as they've espouse in their products).   

My problem with that is that they are relying on some long term [interpretation] of that being the case, and it removes the in situ aspects of the hemisphere that may make for the correlation's ability to present in the circulation media, more prominent - like this year     Namely/why, the flow is still easily identifiable as having a strong polar jet over the Pacific running along the 40th parallel, with some 4 to 6 isohyses in parallel, with 50 to 100 kts winds in ambience and jet max-lets running along that conveyor.  That is not a nebular hemisphere - hello. It is an R-wave definitive scaffold that absolutely telecons quite proficiently actually given to that being the case, in June no less!

So, out there in the - admittedly - deep extended, this oscillation near Hawaii reverses, and a new large spatial and y-coordinate (tall) ridge anomaly repositions again NE of Hawaii; the PNA's sign goes back negative. 

The timing of that June 21 to June 28 estimating, and the heat dome there may attenuate - or even get ejected east and get caught up in the new ridge formulation that takes place over eastern N/A as concomitant facet with all this.  

 

[weatherwiz]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have been wondering about that, my self.  

If that is to be the case, I don't believe they will be established over the next two weeks.  Short version summary:   hot here, hot there, back to hot here, across the three week oscillating hemisphere. And during, it is like our region just did, they may transit through. 

Longer version. The hemisphere is 'sloshing'   Why? It may be an like an emergent wave function that results as a 2ndary super-synoptic emergent behavior from all the interior wave components of the circulation system carrying about. They cause the scaffold to "wobble" back and forth.  That's a fascinating hypothesis to me, anyway.  The next wobble 'might come back east.  

Perhaps way out there...toward mid July, these grand-scaled 'giga-motions' will find a rest state - probably with a ridge in the middle, with two vague 'dents' in the westerlies sagging on either coast... when Chicago is lazed off the face of the planet by shade temperatures of 110 heh. It may be the westerlies really do break down by then, but if persistence bears any usefulness, it may also just be a slower decay; in which case there could still be a correlated depression after California smolders for heat to come back east before any such summer rest state arrives.

But I have been watching the expanse of the Pacific Basin's mid level wave-train in the modeling.  There's a definitive tendency going on now, through D6, to retrograde a very impressive ridge anomaly from NE of Hawaii, to NW of Hawaii.  

As that occurs, this switches the sign of the PNA from (-) to (+) in winter.   But this is summer, and the PNA is not supposed to be correlated well-enough in J/J/A to bother calculating the cross-correlation matrix at Climate Diagnostic Center ( as they've espouse in their products).   

My problem with that is that they are relying on some long term [interpretation] of that being the case, and it removes the in situ aspects of the hemisphere that may make for the correlation's ability to present in the circulation media, more prominent - like this year     Namely/why, the flow is still easily identifiable as having a strong polar jet over the Pacific running along the 40th parallel, with some 4 to 6 isohyses in parallel, with 50 to 100 kts winds in ambience and jet max-lets running along that conveyor.  That is not a nebular hemisphere - hello. It is an R-wave definitive scaffold that absolutely telecons quite proficiently actually given to that being the case, in June no less!

So, out there in the - admittedly - deep extended, this oscillation near Hawaii reverses, and a new large spatial and y-coordinate (tall) ridge anomaly repositions again NE of Hawaii; the PNA's sign goes back negative. 

The timing of that June 21 to June 28 estimating, and the heat dome there may attenuate - or even get ejected east and get caught up in the new ridge formulation that takes place over eastern N/A as concomitant facet with all this.  

 

That is quite an interesting take and does make some sense. Over this past month we have seen a back-and-forth wobble going on. It looks like big heat wants to become established into our area but the way the Arctic configures really wants to suppress the heat back to our Southwest...but we have seen with this stretch that once that relaxes the big heat is getting in here. We're either doing a pattern of slightly below-average or way above-average...there is no in the middle. 

I kinda of agree with your thoughts too about going forward...we may very well see a pattern evolve which becomes very omega like...there are some precursors to this trying to occur but there are alot of moving pieces and lots of uncertainties with how the seasonal pressure center's become positioned and shaped moving through the month. 

[Typhoon Tip]

'nother thing I've noticed as an Aspergery OCD about weather chart dude 

Thing is, heat/summer ridging was always associated with 582 heights as a crucial sort of metric for 40 N, Chicago to Boston, etc.   Get that height to arc over those regions, deterministically in forecast methods and so forth, the 90 F isotherm comes N; and then the 588 may close off a circumvallated bubble that typically then retrogrades west from either WAR , or perhaps forms over Tennessee Valley/ WV before retrograding west underneath the 40th parallel.

That was the case 1970s through the 1990s. 

Over the last 20 years, the 582 is still crucial but, the 588 dm seems to now fashion to where the 582 used to back whence, and now, we seem to have 594 circumvallate bubble domes nested that do the same trajectories, therefrom. 

Not sure but I'm willing to bet this is another way in the means in which the HC expansion begins to empirically manifest in summers.   In the winters, I still maintain that the expression of the expansion is more so through the velocity energetics - a natural physically forced result of polar region still being sufficiently deep in heights to set up a gradient saturated hemisphere.  It's why we've see these excessive jet velocities in recent decade(s) winters.  So the "expansion" in the sense of area is suppressed/contained in the compression, but conserved via fast flow. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Scratch and clawed my way to a welcome  .33" of rain.   

Fought my way this AM for the same "T" we had yesterday, 6th day of 8 this month with at least some raindrops, total 0.06".  Local river continues to set new low flow records for the date.  Dews into the 40s in the northern half of Maine.  If it's not going to rain anyway those dews will be great.

[DavisStraight]

24 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Fought my way this AM for the same "T" we had yesterday, 6th day of 8 this month with at least some raindrops, total 0.06".  Local river continues to set new low flow records for the date.  Dews into the 40s in the northern half of Maine.  If it's not going to rain anyway those dews will be great.

Its been dry upstate New York too, Lake Ontario was down a couple feet from normal.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

Its been dry upstate New York too, Lake Ontario was down a couple feet from normal.

We’ve been very dry too.

[Torch Tiger]

Looks muggy on Sunday with some severe storms?  

[Great Snow 1717]

10 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Looks muggy on Sunday with some severe storms?  

Storm chasing on Sunday???

[Cyclone-68]

19 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Looks muggy on Sunday with some severe storms?  

Somebody owes me a wet microburst 

[dendrite]

Front is through at home with the dews starting to drop. 82/66

[weathafella]

Looks like BOS Will bank 5 straight AOA 90 today.

[tamarack]

17 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Somebody owes me a wet microburst 

Should've been in Machias last night - the area had 4-6" during the wee hours and several water crossings have taken out roads.  Saw up to 3.65" on cocorahs in neighboring Hancock County, but all the reporting Washington County sites are 20+ miles east of Machias and had modest totals.

[correnjim1]

it will be another dry and hot day here

[HIPPYVALLEY]

86/68.  We sweat. 

[WxWatcher007]

Day 5 of the heat wave in the books here.

Having 5 straight days is impressive, especially this early in the season. Might not top this streak the rest of met summer.

91°

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Day 5 of the heat wave in the books here.

Having 5 straight days is impressive, especially this early in the season. Might not top this streak the rest of met summer.

91°

Clouds on Saturday and today kept us from getting to 90 but I guess there’s still time this afternoon.  

[CoastalWx]

No 90 here. 85 so far with a N wind off the harbor.

[tamarack]

TD 38 at FVE, 71 at PWM.

[powderfreak]

51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Front is through at home with the dews starting to drop. 82/66

Dews are plummeting now.  Feels so nice. 

Down to 54F now at MVL for a dew point from 70F this morning.

BTV down to 48F dew.

Highgate, VT (KFSO) down to 37F on the Canadian border.  Let's get more of these dews in the 30s down in here.  83/37 for 19% RH there.  Chamber Weather is back.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Dews are plummeting now.  Feels so nice. 

Down to 54F now at MVL for a dew point from 70F this morning.

BTV down to 48F dew.

Highgate, VT (KFSO) down to 37F on the Canadian border.  Let's get more of these dews in the 30s down in here.

FSO looks like an outlier, but dry air advection nonetheless.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

FSO looks like an outlier, but dry air advection nonetheless.

Yeah.  I saw EFK down to 41F at one point, but has come back up to 46F.

Looks like FSO is coming back up, 39F now.

Both of those stations are a bit of the secondary tier around here though.  Seems to be a lot of jumping around, mixing probably.  

BTV down to 46F.  Might mix out into low-40s, seems to be dropping with every 5-min update, RH now at 28%.  Gahhh.

[powderfreak]

You know its humid or you have a problem when you are refreshing dew point maps to watch the breath of fresh air move in.

[mreaves]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Dews are plummeting now.  Feels so nice. 

Down to 54F now at MVL for a dew point from 70F this morning.

BTV down to 48F dew.

Highgate, VT (KFSO) down to 37F on the Canadian border.  Let's get more of these dews in the 30s down in here.  83/37 for 19% RH there.  Chamber Weather is back.

Yep. 78.2°/56.3° near perfection

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Yep. 78.2°/56.3° near perfection

Can’t wait to get home after work and open the place up wide again.  The humidity lockdown has ended, ha.  

[mreaves]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Can’t wait to get home after work and open the place up wide again.  The humidity lockdown has ended, ha.  

The humidity lockdown may be the worse kind.  Can't even escape it with a solo hike.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah I dunno down here, even thought we're two to three ticks lower it still feels as brutal as the last couple of days ...

WPC's 16:50 update still drapes the front N VT/NH as a quasi stationary ..

there may be a prefrontal sort of dry-line deal with the wind coming d-slope too

[correnjim1]

down to 82 here

[KoalaBeer]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I dunno down here, even thought we're two to three ticks lower it still feels as brutal as the last couple of days ...

WPC's 16:50 update still drapes the front N VT/NH as a quasi stationary ..

there may be a prefrontal sort of dry-line deal with the wind coming d-slope too

Ya still felt brutal out there when the sun was fully out. Looks like it’s starting to move through the lakes region now according to mesowest obs. Current DPs for NH.