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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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Introduction of cloud and elevating DP is more new than not, from the Euro/NAM/GFS...blah blah, for tomorrow ( Tue) onward.

Today is the last chance for 'big heat' in this scenario, should those new trends play out.  Which looking at Sat and synoptics, seems to extrapolate that way - so observably supports this as bullshit scenario by all modeling, all along.

Went from 93 to 97 look for Tuesday, to perhaps struggling to make 89 if those NAM gridded RH values work out from 06z.   It's not a relief though, because if the skies and air gum up as much as the models suggest, they cannot be right about 64 F DPs.  That's probably 88/74 by 11am, which is no picnic in a field of caressing breezes and waving spring daisies. Probably anvil polluted skies over soupy afternoons where wet steaming roads smell of the dead ground hog carcasses and a Golfer makes the evening news as a strike victim.  Tues and Wed may make 90 by rounding/70 type air -  fine, maybe some impressive CB structures.

Kind of a short term correction for this thing. 

The other aspect that I'm noticing about the late Wed period - it really does seem as though the models are engineering a front in the area, prior to the deep layer synopsis passage of mechanics late in the week.  They may be doing so by deterioration of hgts aloft preceding said shit, and then convective processing gets underway and we end up with frontogenic layout from processed air. 

Man, you know I've never seen the models so hostile to a heat wave pattern - they really haven't 'liked' this thing from the get go. The ridging heights inside the 582 areal expanse have been Swiss cheesed in the runs the whole way; the 588 dm contour is meandering and with least excuse the models can't seem to really fill out the large circumvallate beneath the 582.  That does intrinsically signal this ridge is sort of atypically not as effectively offering the heat dome capping. Meanwhile, the Sonaran/SW ejection aspect just didn't take place as the Euro said it would when this was still 4 days ago.  We're verifying hot enough for pedestrian heat, because sun is so tall at this time of year, the skies averaging >75% clear. We'll see if today gets a convincing 95+ out of this thing.  So now, the models have schemed and figured out how to steal back 2 days from this - haha.  Okay, this popped on the distant signaling with a lot of cross-guidance prominence suggesting it could evolve into a more important ordeal, but just ended up pedestrian.

Meanwhile, here comes autumn in the Euro on D9/10.  Something tells me a that pattern is bullshit out there.

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Introduction of cloud and elevating DP is more new than not, from the Euro/NAM/GFS...blah blah, for tomorrow ( Tue) onward.
Today is the last chance for 'big heat' in this scenario, should those new trends play out.  Which looking at Sat and synoptics, seems to extrapolate that way - so observably supports this as bullshit scenario by all modeling, all along.
Went from 93 to 97 look for Tuesday, to perhaps struggling to make 89 if those NAM gridded RH values work out from 06z.   It's not a relief though, because if the skies and air gum up as much as the models suggest, they cannot be right about 64 F DPs.  That's probably 88/74 by 11am, which is no picnic in a field of caressing breezes and waving spring daisies. Probably anvil polluted skies over soupy afternoons where wet steaming roads smell of the dead ground hog carcasses and a Golfer makes the evening news as a strike victim.  Tues and Wed may make 90 by rounding/70 type air -  fine, maybe some impressive CB structures.
Kind of a short term correction for this thing. 
The other aspect that I'm noticing about the late Wed period - it really does seem as though the models are engineering a front in the area, prior to the deep layer synopsis passage of mechanics late in the week.  They may be doing so by deterioration of hgts aloft preceding said shit, and then convective processing gets underway and we end up with frontogenic layout from processed air. 
Man, you know I've never seen the models so hostile to a heat wave pattern - they really haven't 'liked' this thing from the get go. The ridging heights inside the 582 areal expanse have been Swiss cheesed in the runs the whole way; the 588 dm contour is meandering and with least excuse the models can't seem to really fill out the large circumvallate beneath the 582.  That does intrinsically signal this ridge is sort of atypically not as effectively offering the heat dome capping. Meanwhile, the Sonaran/SW ejection aspect just didn't take place as the Euro said it would when this was still 4 days ago.  We're verifying hot enough for pedestrian heat, because sun is so tall at this time of year, the skies averaging >75% clear. We'll see if today gets a convincing 95+ out of this thing.  So now, the models have schemed and figured out how to steal back 2 days from this - haha.  Okay, this popped on the distant signaling with a lot of cross-guidance prominence suggesting it could evolve into a more important ordeal, but just ended up pedestrian.
Meanwhile, here comes autumn in the Euro on D9/10.  Something tells me a that pattern is bullshit out there.

You have been on this since it first showed up on models. Today should be impressive, still a solid heat wave even if tapers down a bit.


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17 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:


You have been on this since it first showed up on models. Today should be impressive, still a solid heat wave even if tapers down a bit.


.

Yeah I'm just bein' a bit snarky about the idiosyncratic erosion of the thing.  Ha.

Sometimes these things look pedestrian and turn into impressive anomalies. Sometimes they are impressive anomalies, and turn pedestrian.

This whole thing is the latter version - more than less.  But, there is also a bit of relativity to this -

I was just looking at the climate data/Prelim at NWS Boston's website and noticed so far for the month of June ( be it only 7 days in, granted - ), we are +10.5 at Logan. +4.6 at HFD, which is big, but not too unreasonable for that location. But +7.6 at Worcester, with the Logon and that, in all - this is not so trivial positive departure. Particularly considering the last two days are some 80% of the numerical weight in those averages. That's impressive.  So in that objective sense, any summer and heat enthusiasts spending way, waaay too much time looking at charts like I just did ( LOL ) probably should keep that in perspective.  Actually though, it was the only thing really notable worth much discussion at all back whence, so.

I'm also wondering how often it snows in the midland elevation country of Oregon's Columbia Plateau and around lower British Columbia in June.  

Seems this whole ordeal is just a giant seesaw of anomalies along 40 north:  up east down west.   And it does interestingly seem to just be more notable along that latitude.  Beneath that, other than rains in Texas, there's nothing very unusual happening from Cape May to California.

 

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12 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Topped out at 86 in Randolph for the high.

Same here.  My 86/62 was 16° AN, and crushed the (weak) record here for the date - was 77/55 on 6/6 last year.  Got own to 60 this morning thanks to fewer clouds overnight, so it will need to work harder to exceed yesterday's mean.  We reached 88 on 5/26 but the leaf-out was maybe 85% on that date and it's 100% now, so more transpiration means greater challenge to reach 90.  Lots of mosquitos visiting me as I watered the veggie garden this morning - much of the June 1 plantings have already broken ground, 2-3 days quicker than usual.  Deerflies are out but mostly flying solo - the hordes arrive later this month.  :fulltilt:

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4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. They have increasing clouds and chance of storms a little too early which is why they may have capped the high below 90. I think we will get into the low 90s but I’ll bet the under on 93.4.

93.2⁰ so far here....with the humidity added today, it is a sauna out there

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1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

.......perfect summer day to cruise around Billerica.....

See the source image

That's a multi-season rig right there. Cools one in summer, plus one can run the exhaust from the genny through the window in winter if one gets trapped in subsidence while Will and Ray are stacking it up.

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

That's a multi-season rig right there. Cools you in summer, plus you can run the exhaust from the genny through the window in winter if you find yourself trapped in subsidence while Will and Ray are stacking it up.

Thankfully I do not live in Billerica.....

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

LOL a "conference."

soak-fest-miami-spring-break-pool-party.

Ha yeah.  At the Ritz-Carlton in South Beach.  Plenty of “networking” going on I’m sure.  I don’t think any of them going to this have been fully sober since they walked off the plane, but at least I’m not paying for it :lol:.

88/60 MVL. 93/58 at BTV. 

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