June, 2021 Discussion

[CoastalWx]

75 was the low here. 81 now.

[Typhoon Tip]

yup ,  88/73 BOS 8:05    ... narily missing 90 by 8

[CoastalWx]

We'll probably pop some CU and SCT storms this aftn. Might keep a lid on things, but probably many 98s thrown in. 99 BOS? The * does apply.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, subtle but there ... a trend to just be weaker overall with that weekend trough scenario. 

Truth be told, the whole plunking in aspect seems 'forced' ?  almost corrective - like a whiplash maybe.  Heights were so high then there's an abrupt collapse, and typically these models see any change at all beyond D5 through a magnifying glass ( metaphor for larger than they are, both in amplitude and area).

We saw this all cold season long, Euro and GFS, where most notable distant storms ended up predictably ( due to persistent correction behavior ) pedestrian.

Anyway, this trough looks like it defaults the area more toward seasonal humidity and thundery rains for 18 hours sometimes late Thurs onward, but then our dailies Sat/Sun may just end up more partly cloudy and just not as overall bad.

We'll see how it evolves but this week's end smacks as a similar over advertisement.

[Typhoon Tip]

This year may get it done in July

[Ginx snewx]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That day/night before the 100+ day was really oppressive. I actually thought it felt worse than the mixed out low 100s the next day. 

Definitely the sky was so hazy that day before it looked like smoke. This heat has a nice little breeze with it and although extremely humid its not take your breathe away.  

[Typhoon Tip]

BOS nicks a 'rounding' 90 at MesoWest's site by 8:50 am, fwiw -

[Typhoon Tip]

06z NAM put up a 33 C at T1 for Logan across two consecutive intervals -

...about as close to a hundred as can be possibly missed - probably 99.4 F in the 2 meter ... ha

12000435424 -0798 182610 78332415   
18000466319 -1496 172711 78332414

[Saguaro]

After yesterday's overnight low of 78, IZG dropped to 75 near midnight, one of those "cheap" end of day low temps. Impressively, they're already almost 90 (88) at 9am. Depending on potential cloud issues, 100 might be in play today.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

…this is just some unusual/interesting environment shit going on –

Boston’s low was 79 F, which took place between 4:25 and 4:50 am, before the temperature bounced back to 81 and sat there in torrid stasis through dawn.  I've seen this in the past, and wonder if there's any truth to what it looks like is happening:  as the corpuscular rays of the sun began tipping over the NE horizon, before the red disk even pokes up, it is as though the atmospheric wick is so primed (thermal momentum in this sense …)  the temperature rises.   Boston's temp appeared to rise before the dawn, perhaps responsive to just the diffused day-lights energy input.

It is presently 90-ish by 9 am – and the index finger rule in weather prediction, “9 by 9 if you wanna make a hundo” is in full watch – we’ll see.   But agree with Scottness that 97 to 99 seems a slam dunk.  

All happening with DPs in the 70s !   That’s the coup de gras.    We may have Heat Index values of 105 to a surreal 107 F at some point between 3 and 6 pm - unknown mix result?

 

OH, and one other aspect:  the seasonal climatological hottest week of the calendar year is July 20^th through the 28^th  

[tamarack]

10 hours ago, dendrite said:

Quillayute (UIL airport) had never recorded 100F before today and then they managed 110F this afternoon.

 

Quillayute is 4 miles from the Pacific.  Hoquiam is 125 miles SE and 14 miles from the Pacific on the Columbia estuary.  That 15° difference in temps is very suspicious.  One station explodes their all time high by 11° while the other remains 8° below theirs.

In other news, yesterday's 92/68 set new high for daily mean since moving here in May 1998.  Had a weak 10-minute TS (0.11") just after 9 PM last evening.  Not much but better than nothing.

[Cyclone-68]

I want storms tomorrow and make em’ mean 

[PhineasC]

7 hours ago, weathafella said:

If you’re not concerned about the heat bias of temperature records over the past number of years your head is in the sand folks.   More water, more snow for now but less probably pretty soon. 

I'm hoping the precip firehose of the last couple decades lifts north soon. My temps will be plenty cold for snow even in a GW regime. No sense wasting it on slop and rain in SNE.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Unbearable already 

[forkyfork]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Why must I do your work. Last top ten cold was 09

i'm asking for the link to the data

[STILL N OF PIKE]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll probably pop some CU and SCT storms this aftn. Might keep a lid on things, but probably many 98s thrown in. 99 BOS? The * does apply.

HRRR  likes Ginxy to SE mass 3pm on 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 hours ago, weathafella said:

If you’re not concerned about the heat bias of temperature records over the past number of years your head is in the sand folks.   More water, more snow for now but less probably pretty soon. 

Caboose'ing this ..

..not sure what it means for your 'elephant in the room commentary,' but at least for this summer - I suspect we are in an above normal to normal departure regime.

At times, this could be vastly warmer than normal.

I suspect the basal temperature pattern seldom gets below normal - unless it is happenstance with a heavy rain or more local to our unique geography and a Labradorian NE jet for time spans that don't last as long as those spent in the base state.

 

[forkyfork]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Caboose'ing this ..

..not sure what it means for you 'elephant in the room commentary,' but at least for this summer - I suspect we are in an above normal to normal departure regime.

At times, this could be vastly warmer than normal.

I suspect the basal temperature pattern seldom gets below normal - unless it is happenstance with a heavy rain or more local to our unique geography and a Labradorian NE jet for time spans that don't last as long as those spent in the base state.

 

the elephant has been in the room for a decade

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the elephant has been in the room for a decade

...in the interest of diplomacy - but yup

In fact more likely began when "Ugh" picked up the first lightning strike burning stick in the early Hominid African savanna and got to thinking. That's when it started, if we really wanna asymptotic the mo' f*er

You didn't ask, but the Anthropocene Epoch ?     doesn't end well -

[WxWatcher007]

Low of 76.9 and high so far of 90.6. Currently sitting at 89.0/78 on the VP2.

[Typhoon Tip]

Why is it that people "bun" emoji people for telling truth's they happen to hate --

Boy, that shows an intellect capable of real growth when you do that.   

[WxWatcher007]

At least things aren't boring. Big heat today, slight risk tomorrow, and the tropics are unusually active, especially in the MDR. We followed up a landfalling TS yesterday with a new Invest today, 97L. Overall environment favors some type of US "close" approach, though you take that with a grain of salt at this range. 

[Cyclone-68]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

At least things aren't boring. Big heat today, slight risk tomorrow, and the tropics are unusually active, especially in the MDR. We followed up a landfalling TS yesterday with a new Invest today, 97L. Overall environment favors some type of US "close" approach, though you take that with a grain of salt at this range. 

Amen…Anything is better than how it looked  a few days ago 

[Spanks45]

88.4⁰/76⁰, hopefully some rain in the near future....

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Low of 76.9 and high so far of 90.6. Currently sitting at 89.0/78 on the VP2.

We've hammered this facet enough so keeping brief.

This really is an ideal heating scenario through a column that lacks the critical upper tier thermally charged air-layers/initial conditions to have brought this to a real dangerous scope.

That's the shortest way to say it.

The longer version ..ad nauseam at this point, is that we did not have that +22.5 or > C 850 and over hanging EML ejected from the SW/W U.S., in a critical timing prior to the onset ( synoptically ) of this anomaly.  If we had, we would have parked that air mass inside this ridge and we wouldn't be struggling to get 90 b 9; it is possible would be talking 100 by noon! 

The irony here is that there is air out west available to this competition between real potential, and getting lucky that we are missing this - altho "luck" in the relative sense; it may be that it is rare to get that nexus of events.  Unknown.

But I think we are "playing with fire" frankly.   You know, I remember back in late November through early January of 2014-2015, posting that we are doing that same playing with matches wrt to winter, because we kept getting side-swiped by bricking cold, but then it was timing roll-outs, en masse, just in time for synoptic rainers.  It just seemed the south and N were just enough out of sync to keep them from bed- partnering ...  That all changed on January 15 in the guidance that fateful year

I wonder as we venture into the antithesis of July, what we can do with some of that W air if it should get booted E en masse inside of one of these topless ridges

[CoastalWx]

Some violence on the HRRR tomorrow. Could be a fun late aftn/evening for many.

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh, 92 at BOS at 9:55 ...

Any takers on "10 after 10"      LOL

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

If this is almost non stop HHH we take. Hazy? HOT? HUMID probably 

The furnace summer continues 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some violence on the HRRR tomorrow. Could be a fun late aftn/evening for many.

WORD!   It may not be getting the attention it needs?

Perhaps owing to the heat business in the foreground, but that looks impressive to me as the Euro descends height falls at the same time it accelerates/ ..or defaults ( actually) the entire NY and 6-state region inside a right/side exit/entrance jet field. 

With all this f'n SB CAPE, the Mlv lapse rates and the MU CAPE ending up in situ in growth. 

I wanna say, tornado 'tomography' or cross-sectioning in our neck of the woods has climate precedence for when troughs dive S ...not necessarily arrive from the W like in the Plains.

That means the W boundary layer flow is actually in a positive (favorable) directional shear. And favorably also the marine component is pushed over toward France lol.  Tomorrow and actually Thursday too, as the Euro and membership keep the trough axis W until late that day.

[wxeyeNH]

10 hours ago, dendrite said:

Quillayute (UIL airport) had never recorded 100F before today and then they managed 110F this afternoon.

 

Usually all time records are broken by a degree or two.  This heat wave was so unprecedented that climate change had to have played a part.  You just don't break 3 days in a row with all time record highs by many degrees.  Portland below

Monday’s record-setting temperature of 116  broke Sunday’s record-setting high of 112 degrees. Sunday’s high had broken the 108 degree-record set Saturday, which broke the previous high of 107, first set in 1965.