Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2021 Author Share Posted June 11, 2021 Seasonal lag is not really done at his latitude yet, that's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 Got down to a chilly 49F last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. They don’t understand the downside of humid heat yet. All they think about June to August is pool. When I was a kid it was more enjoyable. When you’re grown and have more responsibilities, it fades. Give them some yard work to do during the next heatwave and let’s see their reactions then lol. I enjoy the pool as much as a kid. Temp 79 degrees. After yard work nothing better. Tan is on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 Looking like congrats NH/MA border on the early 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2021 Author Share Posted June 11, 2021 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: ummmm WTF Nothing better to do at the moment so I'll throw in a knee-jerk surmise as to why that "might" be: The GFSX (MET) is still based on the previous 30-year mean. The new Nabisco cooked numbers from the meshed up new idea may be basing that on the recently updated climate range - impetus being that recent decade(s) have seen a robust increased in x-y-z. Having said that, 4 F both, in the low and high, is an odd coincidence. Sort of tilts one to wonder if that's just some operator error. Also, 4 F is a lot of CC for one site; seems to exceed the global signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Glad we don't live there I'd probably prefer your weather, but after the heat I don't mind a cool crapper either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nothing better to do at the moment so I'll throw in a knee-jerk surmise as to why that "might" be: The GFSX (MET) is still based on the previous 30-year mean. The new Nabisco cooked numbers from the meshed up new idea may be basing that on the recently update climate range. Having said that, 4 F both in the low and high, is an odd coincidence and makes one wonder if that's just operations error. Also, 4 F is a lot of CC for one site; seems to exceed the global signal. This was exactly my thought but then I went right to your second point...a 4F swing would be massively insane. I also briefly thought maybe one is averaging the period and one is focusing on the beginning or end of the period...but no way there is a 4F swing either over the course of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'd probably prefer your weather, but after the heat I don't mind a cool crapper either. How did you make out with the Hickory seeds? So I went to plant the Black Walnuts this spring which were in cold storage in peat, but... my sister in law threw them out when I was in the hospital in Dec, she thought it was rotten fruit, ugh. This just happened. First for me mature male oriole and a juvenile at the cherry feeder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Nothing better to do at the moment so I'll throw in a knee-jerk surmise as to why that "might" be: The GFSX (MET) is still based on the previous 30-year mean. The new Nabisco cooked numbers from the meshed up new idea may be basing that on the recently updated climate range. Having said that, 4 F both, in the low and high, is an odd coincidence. Sort of tilts one to wonder if that's just some operator error. Also, 4 F is a lot of CC for one site; seems to exceed the global signal. Pretty sure the MEX CLIMO is from the 1961-1990 normal period. I assume the NBE is updated to either 2010 or the new 2020s that just came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Pretty sure the MEX CLIMO is from the 1961-1990 normal period. I assume the NBE is updated to either 2010 or the new 2020s that just came out. THAT'S RIDICULOUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2021 Author Share Posted June 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: Pretty sure the MEX CLIMO is from the 1961-1990 normal period. I assume the NBE is updated to either 2010 or the new 2020s that just came out. Yeah...that's what I figured off the bat but 4 ? seemin' kind of much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: THAT'S RIDICULOUS Why? That guidance was developed long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...that's what I figured off the bat but 4 ? seemin' kind of much Have you compared the 1961-1990 normals to the 1991-2020 ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Have you compared the 1961-1990 normals to the 1991-2020 ones? Solves global warming. Better chance at normal or BN with elevated normals from 1991-2020. As they say, crisis averted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2021 Author Share Posted June 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Have you compared the 1961-1990 normals to the 1991-2020 ones? No - still, 4 is a bit much. It may be that the climate norms have exploded by that much - if so, it's just a point of awe if that is the case. No argument - like I said, it was an admitted first impression. - the other aspect about those numbers is the max T's - forget the climate part for a moment. I don't think I have seen a week of average results in 20 years; yet that GFS ( go wonder ) sells. It just lusts to cancel warmth at any excuse imagined I've come to find. If not obvious at a model glance, it just stenches of across all of its products suites, from numeric to synopsis; it's always finding and seeking the cool side. - half sarcastic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: No - still, 4 is a bit much. It may be that the climate norms have exploded by that much - if so, it's just a point of awe if that is the case. No argument - like I said, it was an admitted first impression. - the other aspect about those numbers is the max T's - forget the climate part for a moment. I don't think I have seen week of average in 20 year; yet that GFS ( go wonder )sells. It just lusts to cancel warmth at any excuse imagined I've come to find. If not obvious at a model glance, it just stenches of across all of its products suites, from numeric to synopsis; it's always finding and seeking the cool side. - half sarcastic here. I think +4/+4 is a little high, but I’m not sure how much AVP has changed. I know CON has increased something like +3/+5 in December between those 2 datasets. I’m not sure that the CLIMO numbers there are what is used by the statistical model…it may just be a general reference for what to expect this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2021 Author Share Posted June 11, 2021 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think +4/+4 is a little high, but I’m not sure how much AVP has changed. I know CON has increased something like +3/+5 in December between those 2 datasets. I’m not sure that the CLIMO numbers there are what is used by the statistical model…it may just be a general reference for what to expect this time of year. Other aspect for me is ...if we are talking about 30 -year means, be it last century or recent grouping, I would think that point variations would tend to obscure by noise and they tend to wash out more similarly. Unless their local setting has a bigger bicep environmental variation that differentiates the too - heh, like comparing Logan to BDL. Or even EWR to LGA. Where's AVP ? Isn't that Scranton PA? ...CON NH may be far enough N that although they may be situated similarly/safely away from the back of the Labrador ball-sack, latitude prolly just becomes a factor in the sensitivity at them two points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2021 Author Share Posted June 11, 2021 I have weird fantasies about using the scale of the Earth's various systems to set off apocalypse experiments, just for morbid curiosity if not deviant lust for mayhem LOL Like, taking a 5X5X100 mile slab of African trade belt, TW transporting air, and just plunking that mass down out amidst the expanse of the Antarctica continent, well within the ring of polar jet that eternally imprisons that cryo Hades off from the rest of the world. Pop corn and beer the result from a live-fed vantage -array of geo stationary satellites, into a movie theater cinema show. Let's go to the movies! Or how about, snapping one's fingers and having the water temperature of the Labrador current be like 98 F to a thermocline depth of 100 meters - flick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 Wouldn't mind a half inch of rain tonight. Not sure we get that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 Well we swung a bit too far in the other direction now... from excessive heat/humidity all the way back to hoodie weather with doors/windows locked up tight to prevent the heat from coming on. Still sitting mid-upper 50s and not budging. Looks like many are in the same boat north of RT 2 in Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 56F at 1230pm. Not bad for Jun 11th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Well we swung a bi too far in the other direction now... from excessive heat/humidity all the way back to hoodie weather with doors/windows locked up tight to prevent the heat from coming on. Still sitting mid-upper 50s and not budging. Looks like many are in the same boat north of RT 2 in Mass. Just like winter, cold and dry sucks. Might as well water the farmer's fields if it's going to be this cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2021 Author Share Posted June 11, 2021 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wouldn't mind a half inch of rain tonight. Not sure we get that though. it was suppose to rain dunnite? ha, wasn't/haven't been paying any attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 A little better here in the 60s, but this wx stinks. Useless unless you're paving a road. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 I’ve suspected it’s been a quiet severe season: https://www.foxnews.com/us/may-tornadoes-not-rated-as-stronger-than-ef3-for-first-time-in-decades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: I suspected it’s been a quiet severe season: https://www.foxnews.com/us/may-tornadoes-not-rated-as-stronger-than-ef3-for-first-time-in-decades Overall it has been I think for several years. It's fair to ask if it's related to any CC. My guess is that the sample size is too small, but why can't CC be in the conversation? CC is usually associated with all bad wx all the time though. I'm sure CC and quiet tornado seasons aren't sexy for the media. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2021 Author Share Posted June 11, 2021 Have y'all been paying attention to the drought in Cali/OR/Wa and the SW ? wow huh - It's June, and dry season is about to begin. We're looking at environmental impacts that are typical in early September in the 'normal climate dry years' Shutting down reservoirs and ( granted it is CNN trying to foment thumb swipes, mouse clicks and T.V. channeling ) setting off plausible riots over potable water sourcing - Meanwhile, this eerily tall ridge dome out there in the modeling mid range is threatening to pop and flood its lava down to the L.A. shores, possibly up as far as N. Central Valley of California. Some of us mentioned two months ago that we were worried about the hot season out west, this year. I was not part of that group of posting(s) but nod head - jesus christ. I mean, I'm looking at 2 meter temps in all guidance. Granted the whole synopsis appears to only last for 3 or 4 days but two of them suckers are 109 to 115 up-down the Central Valley, and given the resolution of products, its hard to tell if the typical marine restorative BL flow is really even protecting the shores/cities at this point. I can't imagine if that air were to some how get west of the coastal ranges and spill off shore. It probably won't? but man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Have y'all been paying attention to the drought in Cali/OR/Wa and the SW ? wow huh - It's June, and dry season is about to begin. We're looking at environmental impacts that are typical in early September in the 'normal climate dry years' Shutting down reservoirs and ( granted it is CNN trying to foment thumb swipes, mouse clicks and T.V. channeling ) setting of plausible riots over potable water sourcing - Meanwhile, this eerily tall ridge dome and is threatening to pop and floods its lava down to the L.A. shores, possibly up as far as N. Central Valley of California. Some of us mentioned two months ago that we were worried about the hot season out west, this year. I was not part of that group of posting(s) but nod head - jesus christ. I mean, I'm looking at 2 meter temps in all guidance. Granted the whole synopsis appears to only last for 3 or 4 days but the two of them sucker are 109 to 115 up the Central Valley, and given the resolution of products, its hard to tell if the typical marine restorative BL flow is really even protecting the shores at this point. I can't imagine if that air some how got west of the coastal ranges and spilled off shore. It probably won't? but man... West Coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A little better here in the 60s, but this wx stinks. Useless unless you're paving a road. 78 here just absolutely perfect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Overall it has been I think for several years. It's fair to ask if it's related to any CC. My guess is that the sample size is too small, but why can't CC be in the conversation? CC is usually associated with all bad wx all the time though. I'm sure CC and quiet tornado seasons aren't sexy for the media. Good article here. Mostly pertaining to EF5 tornado frequency, but also touches on CC as well. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/05/its-been-a-record-long-time-since-the-last-ef5-tornado-what-does-that-mean/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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