kdxken Posted June 4, 2021 Share Posted June 4, 2021 1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said: Sucker is dropping some rain.. another station nearby had 4.7", so think somewhat accurate. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 4, 2021 Share Posted June 4, 2021 A COC evening at Pit2. 65* 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 4, 2021 Share Posted June 4, 2021 How's Stein?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: How's Stein?? Wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 We stein at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 Beautiful evening in Plymouth. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 Good stuff today. Drove down to the Marlborough/East Hampton to chase the cell. Ended up encountering torrential rain and flash flooding so I had to pull off for a bit. Caught small hail accumulation on the way back. Terrain is awful in CT for a chase but you make it work. Edit: one more 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 Nice documentation of the event dude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 .22 rain 60⁰ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: How's Stein?? He dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 Stein hiding behind the bushes but will be back this week as plants droop in heat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 Is there high confidence that late week will be cool (Friday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 Comparing progged highs this week for Pit1 and Pit 2. With an average daily of 10* cooler, I'll take Pit2 every day, Alex. Pit 1 Pit 2 Saturday 90 81 Sunday 94 80 Monday 95 83 Tuesday 92 83 Wednesday 89 80 Thursday 80 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 55 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Is there high confidence that late week will be cool (Friday) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Stein hiding behind the bushes but will be back this week as plants droop in heat. High dews fog no droopage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 Extended period of 90+ heat Sat thru at least Tue along with increasing humidity Tue and Wed. ECMWF Ensemble Situational Awareness Table indicating 1000 mb temps Sat into Wed are in the 97 percentile to Max range, with Max indicating the ensemble is forecasting an event that would fall outside the 1979-2009 climatology for this time of year. Thus, strong signal for oppressive heat Sat thru Tue, possibly into Wed. Given this we will incorporate some of the warmer guidance to derive max temps. 90+ highs likely Mon, Tue and possibly extending into Wed depending on the timing of an approaching backdoor front. In addition, cloud cover Wed could preclude highs from reaching 90+. Deterministic and ensembles both support Monday as the hottest day, with 850 temps around +19C and +25C at 925 mb! These temps aloft will translate to highs in the low to mid 90s, even a low prob of a few upper 90s possible across the Merrimack River Valley. Dew pts are in the low to mid 60s, which may not be high enough to boost heat indices into the heat advisory category of 100-104. Nevertheless, Monday could be day 3 of 90+ heat, hence oppressive. Regarding winds, appears sufficient WSW gradient Monday to preclude seabreeze development in eastern MA. Thus, Boston should see another day of 90+ heat. South coast, SSW winds off SSTs in the mid to upper 50s will result in not as hot conditions across south coastal MA/RI. Tuesday, still hot with anomalous warm airmass remaining over the region combined with WSW pressure gradient precluding seabreeze development along the eastern MA coast. Along the south coast, SW winds will continue to keep the south coast not quite as hot as the interior. Mainly dry weather Monday, may give way to risk of late day scattered storms Tue, as deep layer moisture begins to circulate around the ridge into New England. This moisture may also yield increasing cloud cover and cap highs to 85-90. Although this increasing moisture will result in dew pts climbing to near 70 or so, thus yielding oppressive heat and humidity for day 4. Highs Wednesday will hinge on timing of backdoor front. If backdoor front is delayed until later in the day, WNW winds ahead of boundary would increase probs of one more day of 90+ heat. Ensembles have trended toward a slower frontal passage, so another day of 90+ heat is possible. However, another limiting factor will be a very moist airmass with potential increased cloud cover and also PWATs approaching 200% of normal per ECMWF ensembles. This abundant deep layer moisture combined with mid level short wave trough and attending backdoor front, increasing chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Still could potentially see day 5 of oppressive heat and humidity, with highs 85-90 and dew pts 65-70. Thursday and Friday... Post frontal with dry weather and a significant cool down per ensembles, with 850 temps lowering to +8C to +10C! A spring-like airmass translating to highs only in the 70s and lows in the 50s, along with dew pts in the 40s! Quite comfortable for early to mid June! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2021 Author Share Posted June 5, 2021 Not to be a dink but it was pretty clear to me, given the background ambrosia of signals, that this 'heat storm's' prominence may fall outside the technology interquartile of solutions - gee, I wonder why I don't get read Lol. I just mean its extremeness might be escaping the models. This event appears to be a superposition of larger, more obscure wave mechanics, supplying constructive interference. Metaphor: the 22 year solar cycle, vs the 11 year cycle, timing together. The GWO/AAM stuff was suggested three weeks ago, actually, presaging the advent of subtropical ridge strengths in general. Meanwhile, right on top of the break-down of the seasonal lag stuff. I don't know if y'all have noticed, but there's been a propensity for late May to early July heat domes to bloom in recent years? That's the seasonal lag break-down; the last of the westerlies finally yields to more summer-like relaxed flow, and for a 2 .. 3 week window, you get a latent heat dump over the continent as the flow is passing back down from higher velocity states. And the ridges trend for a brief period. You sort of wonder, 'gee does this mean the summer from Hades', but no: what happens is that then decays, and the anomalies tend to terminate more toward the temperate summer state, with middling warmth, yet elevated CC-related DPs ( to keep low elevated and cheat our way to an above normal July and August) while France lands on the surface of the sun. I mean this is been a dependably repeating cycle - sarcasm aside. This time, it seems the GWO was collocated in time; it tended to make it more confidence for happening, for one, but the extremeness may also not be known until the we are on top of some of these days. I'm noticing the NBM experiment is launching Tuesday to 96, 21 over climate on D4 is telling. I'm not sure about the Thursday and Friday optimism - certainly would be welcome relief, and we hope! But, just the last 2 to 3 cycles of the EPS mean: I'm seeing signs that the flow out there may turn more like 'sagging' over eastern N/A, as opposed to really being an aggressively 'carving' out Maritime trough like some previous guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2021 Author Share Posted June 5, 2021 If anyone wants to be a nerd for a few minutes, this might interest - Take at look ( time sensitive ) at the ice motion over lower JB in this image ( upper right). https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-ca_s_ontario-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined It's obviously much slower than the clouds, but you can definitely make out the ice flow pushing S over the open bay area - probably forcing from that llv jet that's the equivalent of a BD hell up there. That's got to be a weird climate. I mean the sun is relatively high in sky even there. So it's like very hot sun, through 38 F air - yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 Full on summer weekend, barbecue, pool , fire pit, Pete Repete. Pool is 69 degrees this morning. Air temp the same. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 Gorgeous day out there. Anyone have a link to that graph showing the Logan thermometer temp issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 85.9/68 here at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 88 here now. Should have no problem hitting 90. The Rev is 83 I could see him hit 86 up on the hill. Perhaps tomorrow or Monday he gets his 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 84/63 If I hit 90 here it’s looking like it would be Monday. That’s when CON/MHT/ASH may flirt with 95°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 82/59 at MVL. Its warm. Feels like summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 No one show Wiz the 264 hr GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 82/59 at MVL. Its warm. Feels like summer. A little line of convection in upstate NY and entering VT. Hopefully it rides the edge of the ridge and holds together into the evening to down here. The NAM has some decent storms into N NH and SW ME later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2021 Author Share Posted June 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: A little line of convection in upstate NY and entering VT. Hopefully it rides the edge of the ridge and holds together into the evening to down here. The NAM has some decent storms into N NH and SW ME later on. almost looks like a Derecho genesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: A little line of convection in upstate NY and entering VT. Hopefully it rides the edge of the ridge and holds together into the evening to down here. The NAM has some decent storms into N NH and SW ME later on. Yeah I saw that. Most guidance has something dropping through NVT to SW ME. Might stay north then east of me. Like EEK to GYX line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 BAF up to 90 with the downslope off the Berks I always like that section of the Pike where you Drop from like 1400' in Blandford to 200' in Westfield, ears popping from the elevation change, steep grade signs, trucks with flashers on in the right lane, and the runaway truck ramp at the bottom, usually about a 6 or 7 degree temp difference in that short stretch outside of CAD or inversion setups. I've hit some pretty dramatic rain to snow transitions there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: High dews fog no droopage Pretty damn dry here. Plants a bit droopy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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