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June 2021


Stormlover74
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2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Obvious answer is no, they looked at the map and that was all. :)

Did you read it? They are admitting it will suck much of the time. "sometimes it will be the worst". I guess one of those times is now, when we are having 100 degree heat and it shows a cold anomaly during our heatwave, which is what, day 4 now? day 5?

Quite the CYA:

 

Five of the six models predicted the 2021 polar vortex breakdown, with the forecast generated by the Rosenstiel School being the most accurate, according to Kirtman. “But there’ll be times when our model isn’t the best,” he explains. “Sometimes, it’s going to be the best. Sometimes it’s going to be the worst. Sometimes it’s going to be the middle of the pack. That’s the strength of the system.”

 

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3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Did you read it? They are admitting it will suck much of the time. "sometimes it will be the worst". I guess one of those times is now, when we are having 100 degree heat and it shows a cold anomaly during our heatwave, which is what, day 4 now? day 5?

Quite the CYA:

 

Five of the six models predicted the 2021 polar vortex breakdown, with the forecast generated by the Rosenstiel School being the most accurate, according to Kirtman. “But there’ll be times when our model isn’t the best,” he explains. “Sometimes, it’s going to be the best. Sometimes it’s going to be the worst. Sometimes it’s going to be the middle of the pack. That’s the strength of the system.”

 

Based on their data though it seems to have a cold bias. Also, the same can literally be said for every weather model in existence: "sometimes they are the worst, sometimes they are the best, and most of the time they are in the middle." 

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13 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Did anyone read the article?  I haven't followed this model, but it allegedly gave lead times of a month on the Texas outbreak etc.  They also stated the model at times is wrong, case in point.  So it's a work in progress.  If anyone wants to follow it, as it's in development with RSMAS & funding from NOAA, they can.

I glanced thru it but it probably will need more time and accurate reporting to see if it is a real improvement

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23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Going with that and the 94 temp at my nearest station=106 heat index. I’m wondering why more of us aren’t under heat warnings today. 

It’s brutal out there today. Agreed on the warnings. High end stuff 

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25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Need Saturday to be nice. Taking wedding photos.

I haven't peaked at the 12z packages but last night trended towards more scattered showers / mainly dry for the fourth, even Sat didnt look that bad.  Outside of clouds.

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Any data on how the area ocean temps are relative to normal? I fear this early heat will warm ocean temps so the sea breeze won’t cool us off much come august. As it is these seabreeze fronts haven’t knocked the temp down more than a degree or two away from the coast 

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