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June 2021


Stormlover74
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The last day of June is averaging 89degs.(78/101), or +13.0.

Month to date is  73.9[+2.0].     June will end at  74.4[+2.4].

Next HW starts July 06th. after 3" of rain during first 5 days of July.      Saturday could be rain free. 

78*(83%RH)here at 6am, m. clear.       80* by 9am.     83* by 11am.          85* by Noon.         89* by 3pm but 85* just 30mins. later.

 

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We tied two June monthly all-time heat records yesterday. The 102° at Newark was the June record high temperature. The 77° low at White Plains was the warmest low for June.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 102 1
- 2011 102 0
- 1994 102 0
- 1993 102 0
- 1952 102 0
- 1943 102 0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 77 1
- 1991 77 2
3 1984 75 0
- 1975 75 0
- 1952 75 0

 

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Morning thoughts...

Following a night in which the prior day’s intense heat hung on despite the sun’s departure, another stifling day will follow. It will be partly sunny and very hot today. Near record and record heat is possible in parts of the area. There could be afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 90s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 96°

Newark: 101°

Philadelphia: 97°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.6°; 15-Year: 83.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 87.4°

Daily Records:

New York City-LGA: 97°, 1945 and 1964

Newark: 99°, 1964

Tonight into Friday have the potential to see a general 1.00”-2.00” rainfall across the region with some locally higher amounts. Highest amounts could exceed 3.00”.

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10 hours ago, SACRUS said:

6/30 records (LGA, EWR chances)

PHL: 100 (1964)
EWR: 99 (1964)
JFK: 99 (1964)
NYC: 99 (1964)
TTN: 98 (1964)
LGA: 97 (1964)
New Brnswck: 97 (1964)
 

64 was avery good year...it was 99 on the 30th and 1st...that was the hottest temp of that summer...August was very cool...

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The new NYC micronet is proving to be a valuable resource. We continue to see other stations in Queens with warmer high temperatures than LGA. The lows all stayed at 80° or above. 
 

LGA…………….…….98…81

Astoria………….….99…81

Corona……………..100..80

Queensbridge…..99…80

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Hot town summer in the city.  Mid / upper 90s on tap today.  High launch pad may get LGA 100 or > and EWR again.  Western Atlantic ridge begins to move offshore today with one more day of high heat.  Storms should be more prevalent today as heat dome is displaced where it peaked at 598DM ridge .  Slow to move front and storms Thu (7/1) - Sun (7/4) - morning should bring heavy rains over the 60 - 72 hour period 2 - 4 inches of rain. Models kinder for the fourth of July as brunt of the rain and storms falls Thu - Sat morning, then unsettled showers Saturday and sunday morning.   At this point models may be lining up to salvage the 4/5th.  Not completely rain free / but looks more scattered and light.

 

July 6 and beyond - heights and heat rise and resume with more 90s and humidity the work week as piece of the high heat out west bleeds east ahead of the Western Atlantic Ridge expansion.  Need to watch some tropical system near FL early next week and if the re-expanding   W . Atl Ridge steers it up the EC. 

 

Overall warm to hot summer continues.

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9 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Came across this article in the Miami Magazine, on the SubX long range model (1-4 weeks out).  Ben Kirtman, who helped with NMME model is in charge of this new model.

https://magazine.miami.edu/features/2021-spring/subseasonal-experiment-subx.html

Here’s one link to the model:

http://wxmaps.org/subx_custom.php

hmm

subx_20210630_135437.png

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24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Work in progress? It's dead wrong. 

Did anyone read the article?  I haven't followed this model, but it allegedly gave lead times of a month on the Texas outbreak etc.  They also stated the model at times is wrong, case in point.  So it's a work in progress.  If anyone wants to follow it, as it's in development with RSMAS & funding from NOAA, they can.

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At least the day 15 EPS had the general theme of a ridge near the NW and NE correct. But we have seen how the magnitude of these ridges have been beating  expectations. The models usually need to get to under 168 hrs to have a clue of how amplified the ridges will be. So the record breaking nature of this event really snuck up on the models in their better range.

10B8EA92-94AB-49E6-9553-044D9E5B0007.jpeg.e13a4ad573476a1e1b85952302e3c4ca.jpeg
94039632-A728-4D15-A477-2AA378244C7B.thumb.png.05db5c67a963eea3403ebf2d7f16aabf.png

 

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4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Did anyone read the article?  I haven't followed this model, but it allegedly gave lead times of a month on the Texas outbreak etc.  They also stated the model at times is wrong, case in point.  So it's a work in progress.  If anyone wants to follow it, as it's in development with RSMAS & funding from NOAA, they can.

Obvious answer is no, they looked at the map and that was all. :)

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