June 2021

[lee59]

12 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Newark and LGA hit 100 tomorrow I think. The park 95+

LaGuardia hit 96 today, I think they will be close but just miss. Newark, would not surprise me if they hit 102.

[LoboLeader1]

High of 92 here earlier this afternoon, currently 88* outside now.

[Rjay]

High of 86 today.  A much nicer than the rest of you 82 currently lol.

[lee59]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Hit of 86 today.  A much nicer than the rest of you 82 currently lol.

With the heat island affect of NYC, I would not be surprised if it is still above 80 at midnight. Meanwhile down to 83 here.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

So Newark went from 94 at 3pm to 99 at 4pm. and they are some 5 degrees and more warmer than those other recording stations. Something doesn't seem right. Maybe the 94 at 3 was a mistake. Either way they are way warmer than the other stations.

It was 96 at 2pm so the 99 at 4 makes sense despite the 2 degree drop at 3

[SRRTA22]

High of 95 here in Jersey City, highest dewpoint topped out at 74 

Currently 93/72/102  The usual spots are definitely not dropping below 80 tonight

[wdrag]

Our league doubleheader softball games for 60-90 year olds was canceled for Tue morning.  Good move.

Thinking of posting a thread at 7A Tuesday, featuring potential for SVR storms north of I80 late Tue, late Wed, and heart of the forum Thu and southern edge Fri?  Nothing yet. 

The weekend is up in the air, though it seems to me if the GEFS is correct on cutting off a low in the upper Ohio Valley this weekend, that this would eventually spread showery weather back northeast into our area on the 4th and 5th. Timing location for svr this week, and uncertainty as to upper air pattern this coming weekend- all my questions. (SPC D3 for Wed has had marginal for us since this morning).   12z/28 EC op is progressive, but their 12z/28 ensembles less so and similar to GEFS though not as closed off. 

Finally had some small heavy showers tip of nw NJ around 2-4P today. 

Started the July topic since it hadn't 't been yet. Can change the wording if anyone has a better wording.  Have no idea if tropics will involve us this July but it seems to me once this ne USA trough dissolves around the 6th, that we go right back to Bermuda heat high pressure and as per Danny, a trackable 850 vort could be active as it whips around the Bermuda high. 

 

[CIK62]

MOST RECENT DATA:  6pm edt   28-JUN-21
NEWARK INTL ARPT, NJ (   30')                        LAT=40.70N LON= 74.17W   
STA     TMP DP RH  WD WS  G PRS  ALT PCPN     CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP   VIS  WX
EWR  1pm 94 71 47 260 11 17 222 3019                42 SCT 250 BKN    10
     2pm 96 70 42 210 12 16 218 3018                46 SCT 250 SCT    10
     3pm 94 70 45 000  6 16 216 3017        50 SCT  75 SCT 250 SCT    10
     4pm 99 69 37 240 13 19 213 3016                        55 SCT    10
     5pm 95 69 42 240 12 20 209 3015                60 SCT 250 SCT    10
     6pm 95 69 42 220 13    206 3014        55 SCT  90 SCT 250 SCT    10
EWR    6 temps: high=  99 at  4pm low=  94 at  1pm mean=  95.5   precip=  0.00

i have 86 here in CI at 7pm.    Spent PM bet.  78-82.         That 99 looks  muy sospechoso!.         Jet engine turbine exhaust perhaps--turned toward thermometer .    LOL.

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

That 99 looks  muy sospechoso!.         Jet engine turbine exhaust perhaps--turned toward thermometer .    LOL.

The temperature dropped with the more southerly flow and clouds. It reached  99° was when the flow went more westerly. ASOS software weeds out any artificial temperature spikes due to non meteorological factors.

https://www.weather.gov/media/owlie/2018-ASOS.pdf

There are also some things that you would think affect the readings but generally don’t, such as jet exhaust. There are algorithms (computer code) in ASOS that take these quick fluctuations into account. These algorithms have been developed and tested to provide the most accurate and sensible data for a given sensor by using sampling over a period of time and other methods proven to weed out spikes in the sensor data that are caused by non-meteorological influences.

28 Jun 4:00 pm	97	70	42		SSW	14		10.00		SCT060	30.14		30.16
28 Jun 3:55 pm	99	68	37		WSW	14		10.00		SCT060	30.14		30.16
28 Jun 3:51 pm	99	69	38		WSW	15G22		10.00		SCT055	30.14	1021.3	30.16
28 Jun 3:50 pm	99	70	40		WSW	16		10.00		SCT050,SCT075	30.14		30.16
28 Jun 3:45 pm	99	68	37		SW	13		10.00		SCT050,SCT075	30.14		30.16
28 Jun 3:40 pm	99	70	40		SW	15		10.00		SCT050,SCT075	30.14		30.16
28 Jun 3:35 pm	99	68	37		SW	12		10.00		SCT050,SCT075	30.14		30.16
28 Jun 3:30 pm	97	72	45		SW	14G22		10.00		SCT050,SCT075	30.14		30.16
28 Jun 3:25 pm	99	70	40		SSW	16		10.00		SCT050,SCT075	30.15		30.17
28 Jun 3:20 pm	99	70	40		WSW	15		10.00		SCT050,SCT075	30.14		30.16
28 Jun 3:15 pm	99	70	40		SW	10		10.00		SCT050,SCT075	30.15		30.17
28 Jun 3:10 pm	97	70	42		WSW	9		10.00		SCT050,SCT075	30.15		30.17
28 Jun 3:05 pm	97	70	42		SW	16		10.00		SCT050,SCT075	30.15		30.17
28 Jun 3:00 pm	95	70	44		WSW	13		10.00		SCT050,SCT075	30.15		30.17
28 Jun 2:55 pm	95	70	44		SSW	13		10.00		SCT050,SCT075	30.15		30.17
28 Jun 2:51 pm	94	70	46			7G18		10.00		SCT050,SCT075,SCT250	30.15	1021.6	30.17

 

[lee59]

58 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was 96 at 2pm so the 99 at 4 makes sense despite the 2 degree drop at 3

So it was 96 at 2pm and 94 at 3pm and then it rose 5 degrees in one hour to 99 degrees. 

[Rjay]

Just now, lee59 said:

So it was 96 at 2pm and 94 at 3pm and then it rose 5 degrees in one hour to 99 degrees. 

Happens with wind shifts sometimes.  

[lee59]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Happens with wind shifts sometimes.  

Maybe the wind came off some of the marshland and dropped the temp. then went back off the more concrete  area.

[uncle W]

I was as hot as Newark but mby is a hot spot...get rid of those little radiation shields and replace them with the old method of big sheltor box's...while we are at it use a mercury max/min thermometer.as a back up to the electronic one...have a real person take obs every hour...the old way was the better way...

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 96 here.

Current temp 90/DP 72/RH 58%

[donsutherland1]

Two impressive heat domes acted as "heat pumps" with one pushing hot misery into the Pacific Northwest and the other pushing heat into the Northeast. Across the region, temperatures rose into the 90s in many places. 90° or above high temperatures included:

Albany: 90°
Allentown: 94°
Atlantic City: 90°
Baltimore: 94°
Bangor: 94° (tied record set in 1941 and tied in 1991)
Boston: 97° (tied record set in 1901 and tied in 1991)
Burlington: 93°
Concord: 97°
Harrisburg: 96°
Hartford: 95°
New York City-LGA: 96° (tied record set in 2010)
New York City-NYC: 92°
Newark: 99° (tied record set in 1993)
Philadelphia: 94°
Portland: 97°
Poughkeepsie: 95°
Providence: 93°
Washington, DC: 91°
White Plains: 91°
Wilmington, DE: 93°
Worcester: 91°

90° Days for Select Cities (through June 28):

Albany: 2 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 8 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 12 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 9 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 3 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 6 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 9 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 9 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 2 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 3 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 7 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 6 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 14 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 10 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 7 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 9 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 8 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 8 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

The hot and humid air mass will remain in place over the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas through at least mid-week. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 90s in many parts of the region. The hottest spots will likely soar into the upper 90s with a few 100° temperatures possible. A shower or thundershower is possible.

Out West an unprecedented heat event shattered more all-time high temperature records. Preliminary high temperatures included:

Aurora, OR: 113° (old record: 102°, 2008) ***New All-Time Record***
Fort Nelson, BC: 93°/34.1°C (old record: 86°/30.2°C, 1982)
Hillsboro, OR: 114° (old record: 101°, 2008) ***New All-Time Record***
Kamloops, BC: 113°/45.0°C (old record: 100°/37.7°C, 2008) ***New All-Time Record***
Lillooet, BC: 112°/44.7°C (old record: 103°/39.3°C, 2015)
Lytton, BC: 116°/46.5°C (old record: 100°/38.0°C, 2008)
McMinnville, OR: 114° (old record: 100°, 2003) ***New All-Time Record***
Medford, OR: 115° (old record: 103°, 2003 and 2008) ***Tied All-Time Record***
Portland: 115° (old record: 100°, 2008) ***New All-Time Record***
Salem, OR: 117° (old record: 101°, 2008) ***New All-Time Record***
Seattle: 107° (old record: 91°, 1995 and 2008) ***New All-Time Record***
Spokane: 105° (tied record set in 2015) ***Tied June Record***
The Dalles, OR: 118° (old record: 104°, 1937 and 1948) ***New All-Time Record; Tied Washington State Record***
Troutdale, OR: 115° (old record: 99°, 2003) ***New All-Time Record***
Vancouver: 89°/31.7°C (old record: 87°/30.5°C, 1995)
Victoria, BC: 102°/38.7°C (old record: 89°/31.7°C, 1995) ***New All-Time Record***
Yakima, WA: 109° (old record: 108°, 2015)

To put Seattle's historic high temperature into perspective, on a standardized basis (1991-2020 period), it would be the equivalent of the following high temperatures:

Chicago: 112°
New York City (Central Park): 111°
Washington, DC: 113°

Starting tomorrow, the heat will shift somewhat to the north and east. Readings will remain much above normal in parts of eastern Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, and eastern British Columbia. Portland and Seattle will see much cooler readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Seattle's 107° high temperature was 4.03 sigma above the 1991-20 average summer high temperature. It was 4.26 sigma above the 1951-80 average summer high temperature. That made such an event about 2.7 times as likely in today's climate as it was during the 1951-80 period. Further increases in extreme events are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. That's an implied 55% increase tied to climate change. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. That's an implied 40% increase tied to climate change. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming.   

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied near 100% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.1°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was -6.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.608 today.

On June 26 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.545 (RMM). The June 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.346 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

6/28

EWR: 99
LGA: 96
TEB: 95
BLM: 94
New Brnswck: 94
PHL: 94
TTN: 92
NYC: 92
ACY: 90
JFK: 86
ISP: 85

[Cfa]

8 hours ago, psv88 said:

 

North shore is roasting today, winds still too southerly for you guys

Still hot here though, the heat index topped out at 102 with a high temp of “only” 88.

I get the feeling that this is going to be a summer full of 89’s here.

[lee59]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

One of the more impressive records around the region with the heatwave so far.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY
204 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2021

...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT SYRACUSE NY FOR JUNE 
27TH...

A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 78 WAS SET AT SYRACUSE NY 
YESTERDAY. THIS IS THE ALL TIME WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE 
MONTH OF JUNE AT SYRACUSE. THE LOW TEMPERATURE TODAY 6/28 SO FAR IS 
81 DEGREES. IF THE TEMPERATURE DOES NOT FALL BELOW 81 DEGREES BY 
MIDNIGHT THAT WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE SET 
BACK ON JULY 9TH THROUGH 11TH IN 1936. 

 

Looks like the record will stand as it is down to 79 in Syracuse.

[SACRUS]

6/29 Records

EWR: 100 (1959)
NYC: 101 (1934)
LGA: 100 (1934)
TTN: 100 (194)
JFK: 99 (1959)
New Brunswick: 98 (1959)

[Cfa]

I genuinely feel LGA is going to see a low of 90°F within the next decade. If not 90°F I at least expect the current record of 86°F to fall sooner rather than later, considering LGA has done it thrice already.

[SACRUS]

Hot in the city tonight

2200

LGA: 89
EWR: 88
NYC: 85
PHL: 85

[lee59]

18 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Hot in the city tonight

2200

LGA: 89
EWR: 88
NYC: 85
PHL: 85

As these urban areas continue to grow, the night time summer temperatures will continue to rise.

[forkyfork]

[forkyfork]

i am liking wednesday for a region wide mcs

[LIWeatherGuy29]

17 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i am liking wednesday for a region wide mcs

How's it looking for Long Island?

[forkyfork]

34 minutes ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

How's it looking for Long Island?

good up to the suffolk border imo

[forkyfork]

more heat after the 4th of july trough 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

Ice cold off of Africa 

[SnoSki14]

It's in the mid 70s where I am, Somerset, and still in the 80s in the city.

Today's gonna be a scorcher. 100F likely.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

more heat after the 4th of july trough 

Looks like the heat is still going to stay just north of here....what are the chances of NYC OR JFK hitting 100 in this stretch after the 4th?