SACRUS Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 6/27 EWR: 95 TEB: 92 BLM: 91 PHL: 91 New Brnswck: 91 NYC: 90 TTN: 90 LGA: 89 ACY: 86 JFK: 82 ISP: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Rare day with 90 at NYC and 89 at LGA. South winds and clouds muddied LGA. Full 'steam' ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Was 116 in Canada today…this is nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 I’m just glad that it appears we will escape this summer without the extreme heat. Keep it out west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: I’m just glad that it appears we will escape this summer without the extreme heat. Keep it out west. It is June and less than a week into “summer”. Don’t think we can say that. It would be like saying no record cold this winter on December 29th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Writings on wall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said: I’m just glad that it appears we will escape this summer without the extreme heat. Keep it out west. It's only June 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 i think by the end of this week we will have more real heat waves then we had all last summer in nyc.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 13 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Better hope it's wrong because it looks ugly. The 4th may still be salvaged. what does it look like the entire week after the 4th, I have that week off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 9 hours ago, bluewave said: Newark can get close to 100° in coming days if it beats model guidance by as much as today. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 95 251 PM 101 1966 85 10 86 MINIMUM 74 433 AM 52 1940 67 7 68 AVERAGE 85 76 9 77 that was an unexpected 90 for the park, I guess things are starting to dry out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 9 hours ago, bluewave said: Newark can get close to 100° in coming days if it beats model guidance by as much as today. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 95 251 PM 101 1966 85 10 86 MINIMUM 74 433 AM 52 1940 67 7 68 AVERAGE 85 76 9 77 wow 1966 reached 100 early and often.....what an amazing summer that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Newark has a shot at the all-time June 95° day record. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 1943 7 0 2 1988 6 0 - 1984 6 0 - 1945 6 0 3 2012 5 0 - 1993 5 0 - 2021 5 3 1993 one of my favorite summers on that list that had the hottest week of weather I've ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A very warm and humid air mass remains in place over the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures will likely reach the lower 90s in many parts of the region. A shower or thundershower is possible. The warmth will continue through at least mid-week. Meanwhile, out West an unprecedented heat event shattered numerous all-time high temperature records. Preliminary high temperatures included: Eugene, OR: 111° (old record: 98°, 2015) ***New All-Time Record*** Fort Nelson, BC: 96° (old record: 87°, 2015) ***New June Record*** Kamloops, BC: 110° (old record: 99°, 2006) ***New All-Time Record*** Lillooet, BC: 113° (old record: 104°, 2015) ***New All-Time Record*** Lytton, BC: 116° (old record: 96°, 2000) ***New All-Time Record; New National Record for Canada*** Medford, OR: 113° (old record: 104°, 2015) ***New June Record*** Portland: 112° (old record: 98°, 2000) ***New All-Time Record*** Seattle: 104° (old record: 92°, 2015) ***New All-Time Record*** Spokane: 102° (tied record set in 2015) The Dalles, OR: 115° (old record: 105°, 2006) ***New June Record; Tied All-Time Record*** Vancouver: 87° (old record: 79°, 1937) Victoria: 99° (old record: 85°, 1995) ***New All-Time Record*** Yakima, WA: 108° (tied record set in 2015) ***Tied June Record*** Additional all-time high temperature records will likely be surpassed tomorrow. After tomorrow, the core of the heat will shift somewhat to the north and east. Readings will remain much above normal in parts of eastern Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, and eastern British Columbia. Records for select cities: Kamloops, BC: June 28: 100° (37.7°C), 2008 June 29: 102° (39.1°C), 2008 June record: 103° (39.5°C) All-time record: 105° (40.8°C) Portland: June 28: 100°, 2008 June 29: 97°, 1951 June record: 112° All-time record: 112° Seattle: June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008 June 29: 93°, 1987 June record: 103° All-time record: 103° Spokane: June 28: 105°, 2015 June 29: 98°, 1939 June record: 105° All-time record: 108° Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm. During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. That's an implied 55% increase tied to climate change. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. That's an implied 40% increase tied to climate change. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming. In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 95% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -5.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.456 today. On June 25 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.357 (RMM). The June 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.305 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1° (2.1° above normal). back to back all time records? thats a first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 5 hours ago, psv88 said: Was 116 in Canada today…this is nothing exactly my point. I wonder if all that arctic hot air that has been talked about for years is actually causing northern regions to be hotter than we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 The last 3 days of June are averaging 86degs.(76/98), or +12.0. Month to date is 73.0[+1.4]. June should end at 74.4[+2.4]. GFS effectively rains out the first 5 days of July. Obviously not a continuous rain---just a steady threat. After today's 115, Portland T improves while staying way AN---still no rain there for next 10 days, once again. 73*(90%RH) here at 6am., m. clear. 82* by 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 75 here as of 7AM, DP 69.1, RH 85% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Morning thoughts... It will be variably cloudy and hot. There could be a widely scattered afternoon shower or thundershower. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 90s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 91° Newark: 98° Philadelphia: 93° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.2°; 15-Year: 83.3° Newark: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 85.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 87.0° Much above normal temperatures will likely persist through mid-week. Yesterday, Portland (112°) and Seattle (104°) established new all-time high temperature records. Lytton, BC set a national Canadian high temperature record of 116°. Today, Seattle and Portland will likely further increase their all-time high temperature records that they set yesterday. Lytton could challenge its record, as well. Daily Records for June 26: Portland: 100°, 2008 (Forecast: 108° to 120°) Seattle: 91°, 2008 (Forecast: 103° to 115°) *-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean. The huge model spread suggests a 43% implied probability that Seattle will reach 110° and that Portland will reach 115°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 73/72 here, Syracuse never fell below 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: 73/72 here, Syracuse never fell below 80. They already set the June all-time daily warmest minimum yesterday. Time Series Summary for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 78 3 2 1999 77 0 3 2008 75 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Current temp 80/DP 71/RH 76% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Euro and GFS completely different for the weekend. Euro pushes it all out to sea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 I highly doubt the strong WAR will give way so quickly. Euro OP looks like a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Models may be underestimating high temperature potential next several days around the region.The WAR is now going stronger than forecast. We may approach all-time June 500 mb heights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: back to back all time records? thats a first! Portland could have its 3rd consecutive all-time record. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Western Atlantic Ridge pumping heights and heat / humidity. So far much more clear than Saturday and it looks to be off to the races and full steam ahead the next days. Mid - upper 90s (in the warmer spots). 850 temps >18c through Thu pm. 81/72 here. Pop up showers (Florida style) the next few days could produce some scattered heavy rains between the high heat. Most area should tack on 3 or 4 more 90 degree days. GFS and ECM still not fully aligned on timing and extent / duration of the front but both bring the brunt of the storms into the area by Fri (7/2) and into Sat (7/3) as the Western Atlantic Ridge is pushed east and subsequent front and cold front come through. Jul 4th could be mainly storm or rain free but still a bit unstable. Some heavier rains and will all be dependent if the ridge is stubborn to move out and front gets hung up or if it can clear and stall in the south (GA/N-S C) Longer range heights look to balloon again towards the middle of next week. Looks to be warm to hot again with more 90s by Jul 8th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 59 minutes ago, bluewave said: Models may be underestimating high temperature potential next several days around the region.The WAR is now going stronger than forecast. We may approach all-time June 500 mb heights. the only thing that can save us it an easterly flow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 if ewr and lga don't hit 100 this ridge is a stupid waste 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, uncle W said: the only thing that can save us it an easterly flow... Bring on the Trades? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 54 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Western Atlantic Ridge pumping heights and heat / humidity. So far much more clear than Saturday and it looks to be off to the races and full steam ahead the next days. Mid - upper 90s (in the warmer spots). 850 temps >18c through Thu pm. 81/72 here. Pop up showers (Florida style) the next few days could produce some scattered heavy rains between the high heat. Most area should tack on 3 or 4 more 90 degree days. GFS and ECM still not fully aligned on timing and extent / duration of the front but both bring the brunt of the storms into the area by Fri (7/2) and into Sat (7/3) as the Western Atlantic Ridge is pushed east and subsequent front and cold front come through. Jul 4th could be mainly storm or rain free but still a bit unstable. Some heavier rains and will all be dependent if the ridge is stubborn to move out and front gets hung up or if it can clear and stall in the south (GA/N-S C) Longer range heights look to balloon again towards the middle of next week. Looks to be warm to hot again with more 90s by Jul 8th. will the heat post july 8th be as hot as the current bout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if ewr and lga don't hit 100 this ridge is a stupid waste you're coming around to my point of view also: 2020 was a stupid waste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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