June 2021

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The average high temperature last summer at LGA just edged ahead of 2010 by a few tenths of a degree.  LGA did better in 95°and 88° days than 2010. So it was able  to overcome the 90° day deficit.
 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	86.9	0
2	2010	86.7	0
3	2016	86.3	0
4	1994	85.6	0
5	2005	85.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	1955	14	0
2	2020	13	0
-	1999	13	0
3	2012	11	0
4	2010	10	0
-	1995	10	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 88	Missing Count
1	2020	50	0
2	2010	48	0
3	1994	38	0
4	2019	37	0
-	2016	37	0
-	2002	37	0
5	2018	36	0

Thats amazing because I look back at last summer as fairly bland.  We didn't have a real historic stretch of heat like the 3 days out of 4 over 100 in July 2010.  I also remember using the a/c far more in 2010.

Do you think we'll get enough climate warming to eventually overcome southerly flow and hit 100 consistently across the area regardless of wind direction?

 

[LibertyBell]

JFK was fairly close to LGA in 95 degree days (10) in 2010 and 100 degree days (3).

 

[LoboLeader1]

Still overcast here.  TEMP 78  RH 76%  DP 70.0 F

 

 

 

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge commencing.  The heat is on and humidity.  Florida weather for the next 5 days Sun (6/27) - Thu (7/1).  Pop showers and rain could out some heavy amounts scattered around the area over  the next 5 days.  Look for sun showers too.  But while sunny temps low to mid 90s and perhaps upper 90s in the warmer spots.  Dewpoints in the low 70s or higher should yield lows in the upper 70s and 80s in LGA, NYC, JFK potentialluy.  Winds will be mainly S-SW. 

GFS and ECM now a bit more aligned as the W Atlantic Ridge pushes east with subsequent front in the 7/2 - 7/4 period.  Right now both clear the area by late on  Saturday (7/3) and allow for a mainly dry warm/nice Jul 4th.

 

Beynond there heights resume to build as ridging builds back into the East coast and we may be soaring again with heat and humidity by the 8th.  Overall warm to hot but plenty of precip mixed in between.

Hopefully last night's Euro was correct with the idea of drying us out even in time for saturday the 3rd. After the lousy Memorial Day weekend, hopefully we can have a dry July 4th weekend. Obviously it's still early and very questionable though.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats amazing because I look back at last summer as fairly bland.  We didn't have a real historic stretch of heat like the 3 days out of 4 over 100 in July 2010.  I also remember using the a/c far more in 2010.

Do you think we'll get enough climate warming to eventually overcome southerly flow and hit 100 consistently across the area regardless of wind direction?

 

July 2020 at LGA doubled the number of 95 degree days that they had in 2010. Only July 2011 had more 95° days at Newark. Our airport stations are right in the water. So they are prone to local sea breezes. The dominant westerly flow in 2011shut down the Newark bay breeze so they set a record of 13 days above 95° that July. The ASOS at LGA is right on the water which gets cooling breezes with W to NW dry heat flow. Last summer was the opposite. Newark had SSE bay breezes while LGA got more hot S to SSW flow. Since LGA is North Shore location, it was much warmer than JFK which had cooling southerly sea breezes. That S to SW flow really heats up at LGA as it comes across Brooklyn and Queens and slightly downslopes off the moraine.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	2020	12	0
2	1999	11	0
3	2012	7	0
-	1955	7	0
4	2013	6	0
-	2010	6	0
-	2002	6	0
-	1991	6	0
-	1966	6	0
5	2019	5	0
-	1994	5	0
-	1977	5	0
-	1952	5	0

 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	2011	13	0
2	1993	12	0
3	2012	11	0
-	2010	11	0
4	2002	10	0
5	1999	9	0
-	1988	9	0
-	1966	9	0
-	1955	9	0

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

July 2020 at LGA doubled the number of 95 degree days that they had in 2010. Only July 2011 had more 95° days at Newark. Our airport stations are right in the water. So they are prone to local sea breezes. The dominant westerly flow in 2011shut down the Newark bay breeze so they set a record of 13 days above 95° that July. The ASOS at LGA is right on the water which gets cooling breezes with W to NW dry heat flow. Last summer was the opposite. Newark had SSE bay breezes while LGA got more hot S to SSW flow. Since LGA is North Shore location, it was much warmer than JFK which had cooling southerly sea breezes. That S to SW flow really heats up at LGA as it comes across Brooklyn and Queens and slightly downslopes off the moraine.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	2020	12	0
2	1999	11	0
3	2012	7	0
-	1955	7	0
4	2013	6	0
-	2010	6	0
-	2002	6	0
-	1991	6	0
-	1966	6	0
5	2019	5	0
-	1994	5	0
-	1977	5	0
-	1952	5	0

 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	2011	13	0
2	1993	12	0
3	2012	11	0
-	2010	11	0
4	2002	10	0
5	1999	9	0
-	1988	9	0
-	1966	9	0
-	1955	9	0

One could argue that westerly flow causes our biggest heat outbreaks and that the onshore flow happens because there are weaknesses in the ridge.  I've seen when the high is really strong it overcomes sea breezes which is when we get our best heat.

Do you actually rank 2020 higher than 2010 though?  2010 was basically our 1995-96 of summers for the most heat across the entire region (we are after all a coastal region) and was also the hottest summer on record by summer average.

I'm not sure how representative LGA is of our area because of its cramped congested location, I'd rather use an average of all the airports.  And if you judge summers by peak heat, I dont see any 102-103 temps like we had in 2010 and 2011, which is a true indication of how dominant a ridge is. 2010 is like MJ and 2020 is like Lebron.  Sure Lebron had a longer career but at his best MJ was a better player.  

I actually think EWR is more representative of our area than LGA, because the years in the EWR list are more of what I remember as being extremely hot.  All the summers prior in the EWR list are what I would call extremely hot.

 

 

[Rtd208]

Current temp up to 87/DP 72/RH 63%

[Rtd208]

The 12z GFS is quite wet starting late this week thru what looks to be most of next weekend. Plenty of rain.

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The 12z GFS is quite wet starting late this week thru what looks to be most of next weekend. Plenty of rain.

Better hope it's wrong because it looks ugly. The 4th may still be salvaged. 

[Rtd208]

Current temp 90/DP 72/RH 56%

[doncat]

92°/72° currently.

[RippleEffect]

Kinda nasty day today. Had my surgery couple of days ago now just laying in bed. Went outside once and I’m done for the day.

[Rtd208]

Temp up to 92 here now.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

One could argue that westerly flow causes our biggest heat outbreaks and that the onshore flow happens because there are weaknesses in the ridge.  I've seen when the high is really strong it overcomes sea breezes which is when we get our best heat.

Do you actually rank 2020 higher than 2010 though?  2010 was basically our 1995-96 of summers for the most heat across the entire region (we are after all a coastal region) and was also the hottest summer on record by summer average.

I'm not sure how representative LGA is of our area because of its cramped congested location, I'd rather use an average of all the airports.  And if you judge summers by peak heat, I dont see any 102-103 temps like we had in 2010 and 2011, which is a true indication of how dominant a ridge is. 2010 is like MJ and 2020 is like Lebron.  Sure Lebron had a longer career but at his best MJ was a better player.  

I actually think EWR is more representative of our area than LGA, because the years in the EWR list are more of what I remember as being extremely hot.  All the summers prior in the EWR list are what I would call extremely hot.

 

 

The average of all the airports and COOPs in the NY Coastal Climate division came in at 2nd place behind 2010.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

201006 - 201008	75.2°F	126	3.5°F
202006 - 202008	74.5°F	125	2.8°F
201606 - 201608	74.2°F	124	2.5°F
200506 - 200508	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
201106 - 201108	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
199906 - 199908	73.7°F	121	2.0°F
201206 - 201208	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201806 - 201808	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201906 - 201908	73.2°F	118	1.5°F
201506 - 201508	73.1°F	117	1.4°F
194906 - 194908	73.0°F	116	1.3°F
200606 - 200608	73.0°F	116	1.3°F
200206 - 200208	72.9°F	114	1.2°F
201306 - 201308	72.9°F	114	1.2°F

 

 

 

[rclab]

2 hours ago, RippleEffect said:

Kinda nasty day today. Had my surgery couple of days ago now just laying in bed. Went outside once and I’m done for the day.

Heal fast and thorough, RE. You have plenty of fine posts ahead of you. As always ……

[bluewave]

Newark can get close to 100° in coming days if it beats model guidance by as much as today.

 

TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         95    251 PM 101    1966  85     10       86       
  MINIMUM         74    433 AM  52    1940  67      7       68       
  AVERAGE         85                        76      9       77    

[RippleEffect]

4 minutes ago, rclab said:

Heal fast and thorough, RE. You have plenty of fine posts ahead of you. As always ……

Thank you I had my belly button hernia done and it’s not an easy surgery but it’s done now and I’m happy I did it. Though I wish I did it during spring or fall. But my job didn’t let me do that so here I am. Outside again very nice under the shade with a bit of a breeze. Currently 88 degrees!

[wdrag]

So the summary today,for our subforum is GFS/EC bust,  HRRR/RGEM rainfree being correct.

 

No other changes to the outlook through July 5.  12z GFS iso 7" nr Long Branch NJ and EC up to around 3+. in parts of the forum. 

Let's see what happens...  iso max 3.5?  or more like max 4.5"+?

 

 

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Newark can get close to 100° in coming days if it beats model guidance by as much as today.

 

TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         95    251 PM 101    1966  85     10       86       
  MINIMUM         74    433 AM  52    1940  67      7       68       
  AVERAGE         85                        76      9       77    

Easily 97+ the next 3 days

[qg_omega]

82 for the high

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 94 here.

Current temp 89/DP 72/RH 57%

[doncat]

92° high today.

[dmillz25]

90 for the high

[binbisso]

86* for my high temp. today. I believe I only have 2 - 90+* days thus far. I am +1* for June. Up to today the weather has been quite spectacular from the beginning of met spring and through the first 27 days of met summer save memorial weekend.

[bluewave]

Newark has a shot at the all-time June 95° day record.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	1943	7	0
2	1988	6	0
-	1984	6	0
-	1945	6	0
3	2012	5	0
-	1993	5	0
-	2021	5	3

[dmillz25]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Newark has a shot at the all-time June 95° day record.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	1943	7	0
2	1988	6	0
-	1984	6	0
-	1945	6	0
3	2012	5	0
-	1993	5	0
-	2021	5	3

That’s crazy

[dmillz25]

The park hit 90

[donsutherland1]

A very warm and humid air mass remains in place over the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures will likely reach the lower 90s in many parts of the region. A shower or thundershower is possible. The warmth will continue through at least mid-week.

Meanwhile, out West an unprecedented heat event shattered numerous all-time high temperature records. Preliminary high temperatures included:

Eugene, OR: 111° (old record: 98°, 2015) ***New All-Time Record***
Fort Nelson, BC: 96° (old record: 87°, 2015) ***New June Record***
Kamloops, BC: 110° (old record: 99°, 2006) ***New All-Time Record***
Lillooet, BC: 113° (old record: 104°, 2015) ***New All-Time Record***
Lytton, BC: 116° (old record: 96°, 2000) ***New All-Time Record; New National Record for Canada***
Medford, OR: 113° (old record: 104°, 2015) ***New June Record***
Portland: 112° (old record: 98°, 2000) ***New All-Time Record***
Seattle: 104° (old record: 92°, 2015) ***New All-Time Record***
Spokane: 102° (tied record set in 2015)
The Dalles, OR: 115° (old record: 105°, 2006) ***New June Record; Tied All-Time Record***
Vancouver: 87° (old record: 79°, 1937)
Victoria: 99° (old record: 85°, 1995) ***New All-Time Record***
Yakima, WA: 108° (tied record set in 2015) ***Tied June Record***

Additional all-time high temperature records will likely be surpassed tomorrow. After tomorrow, the core of the heat will shift somewhat to the north and east. Readings will remain much above normal in parts of eastern Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, and eastern British Columbia.

Records for select cities:

Kamloops, BC:
June 28: 100° (37.7°C), 2008
June 29: 102° (39.1°C), 2008

June record: 103° (39.5°C)
All-time record: 105° (40.8°C)

Portland:
June 28: 100°, 2008
June 29: 97°, 1951

June record: 112°
All-time record: 112°

Seattle:
June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008
June 29: 93°, 1987

June record: 103°
All-time record: 103°

Spokane:
June 28: 105°, 2015
June 29: 98°, 1939

June record: 105°
All-time record: 108°

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. That's an implied 55% increase tied to climate change. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. That's an implied 40% increase tied to climate change. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming.   

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 95% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -5.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.456 today.

On June 25 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.357 (RMM). The June 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.305 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1° (2.1° above normal).

 

[hudsonvalley21]

90 for the high here today.  Point and click forecast has 95 for the high tomorrow with a heat index of 104.

[psv88]

88 on the island today