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June 2021


Stormlover74
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Hey Guys!   I love the heat.     

Look what's coming:

1624536000-X7PGiCvindU.png

          FOOLED YA !!!!!!         I am going to speak to someone from Portland this evening.        Find out if their EMS crews are planning to scrape any bodies off the sidewalks.

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52 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Hey Guys!   I love the heat.     

Look what's coming:

1624536000-X7PGiCvindU.png

          FOOLED YA !!!!!!         I am going to speak to someone from Portland this evening.        Find out if their EMS crews are planning to scrape any bodies off the sidewalks.

i rather take that heat for a week or two then months in a typical nyc summer.. 65 on july 10 that is beautiful summer weather..

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Tomorrow will be partly sunny and somewhat warmer. This coming weekend will turn much warmer. No excessive precipitation appears likely through the weekend.

In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme to possibly historic heatwave will develop starting tomorrow. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures in cities, including Seattle and Portland, could be challenged or broken. The extreme heat will extend into parts of Canada, including British Columbia.

Records for select cities:

Portland:
June 26: 102°, 2006
June 28: 98°, 2000
June 29: 100°, 2008

June record: 102°
All-time record: 107°

Seattle:
June 26: 90°, 2006
June 27: 92°, 2015
June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008

June record: 96°
All-time record: 103°

Spokane:
June 26: 100°, 1925
June 27: 102°, 2015
June 28: 105°, 2015

June record: 105°
All-time record: 108°

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming.   

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 79% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.1°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +14.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.548 today.

On June 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.206 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.876 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

 

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Finally, nighttime low temperatures will also be rather warm during  
  the peak of the heat--especially Sunday night: Urban heat islands  
  will only slowly cool down through the 80s and bottom out in the 70s  
  so that will be a little rough. Have your fans and damp towels at  
  the ready if you don`t have air conditioning and take care of  
  yourself and check on your elderly neighbors--we just aren`t used to  
  this in Western Washington. That said, we are very lucky we don`t  
  have high humidity that so much of the rest of the country deals  
  with back east every summer, 
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11 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Maybe in August but not in June


The immediate coastline with a persistent southerly flow (15
to 20 mph each afternoon Sat-Tue) will be even cooler (likely in the
70s). Temperatures will be similar through next Wednesday

Immediate coast is the beach. 3-5 miles inland it will be in the 90s. 

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The last 6 days of June are averaging 82degs.(72/92), or +7.0.

Month to date is  72.6[+1.4].         June should end at  74.5[+2.5].

65*(81%RH) here at 6am, overcast.               Reached 76* around 5pm.

Portland up to 120 for Mon.......    But down 10 degrees on the July Fourth WE outburst to the 100's again.  Still rainless for 10 days more.     Better not make the same mistake Chicago made in 1995.

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Morning thoughts...

Morning clouds will yield to a partly sunny day. It will become somewhat warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 80°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 81°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 84.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.2°

A much warmer weekend lies ahead.

An extreme to perhaps historic heatwave will likely begin to descend on the Pacific Northwest today. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s in Seattle and lower to middle 90s in Portland. It will become much warmer tomorrow throughout the Pacific Northwest. At its height numerous June and perhaps all-time high temperature records will tumble, including at Portland and Seattle.

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Newark is in track for its 2nd top 10 warmest June in a row. The coming heatwave will boost the ranking to potentially top 5. Looks like Boston will make a run on the #1 spot. So a continuation of the warmest summer departures and rankings going to our north in recent years. 


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1994 77.8 0
2 2010 76.2 0
3 1993 75.8 0
4 1943 75.4 0
5 2008 75.3 0
6 1984 75.0 0
7 1971 74.8 0
8 2005 74.6 0
- 1981 74.6 0
- 1973 74.6 0
9 2011 74.5 0
10 2021 74.4 6
- 2020 74.4 0
- 1987 74.4 0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1976 73.4 0
2 2021 72.8 6
3 1930 72.4 0
4 1994 71.9 0
5 1949 71.6 0
6 1957 71.3 0
7 2001 71.1 0
- 1943 71.1 0
8 1999 71.0 0
9 1925 70.9 0
10 1983 70.7 0
- 1981 70.7 0
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10 hours ago, nycwinter said:

Finally, nighttime low temperatures will also be rather warm during  
  the peak of the heat--especially Sunday night: Urban heat islands  
  will only slowly cool down through the 80s and bottom out in the 70s  
  so that will be a little rough. Have your fans and damp towels at  
  the ready if you don`t have air conditioning and take care of  
  yourself and check on your elderly neighbors--we just aren`t used to  
  this in Western Washington. That said, we are very lucky we don`t  
  have high humidity that so much of the rest of the country deals  
  with back east every summer, 

Portland to open cooling centers today, 24/7

https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2021/06/portland-area-cooling-centers-open-24-hours-a-day-starting-friday.html

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Transitioned from a Southern California style weather to a Florida like one has begun with much more humid flow developing today.  Western Atlantic Ridge builds west over the area Sat (6/26) - early July with the highest heat/humidity looking like Mon (6/28) Thu (7/1).  Storms likely popup routinely each day, similar to Florida, but the heat is on.  Mid / upper 90s in the hotter spots.  Beyond there split with the ECM and GFS in the W Atlantic Ridge shifting east in the 7/2 - 7/5 period.  GFS maintains strong ridge with trough. and subsequent front much further west into the Ohio valley/ GL.  ECM has the W Atlantic ridge moving east and  torugh closing off and passing through the area 7/2 - 7/5.  Beyond there it looks to return to a warmer to hot flow.

 

Right now a compromise between the GFS and ECM may be best with the ridge holding the trough back towards PA/OH.

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A very warm weekend lies ahead. Temperatures could approach or reach 90° in parts of the region on Sunday. The warmth will continue through at least mid-week next week.

In the Pacific Northwest, a historic and potentially unprecedented heatwave began to descend on the region. In response, parts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia saw temperatures soar into the 90s today. A few locations even exceeded 100° including the following sites:

The Dalles, OR: 102°
Ephrata, WA: 100°
Lytton, BC: 102°/38.7°C (old record: 101°/38.2°C)
Omak, WA: 100°

This weekend into early next week could see the most extreme heat parts of that region have ever experienced. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures could be challenged or broken. That includes the Portland and Seattle areas. After Monday, the core of the heat will shift somewhat to the north and east. Readings will remain much above normal in parts of eastern Washington State, Idaho, and eastern British Columbia.

Records for select cities:

Kamloops, BC:
June 26: 102° (38.4°C), 2006
June 27: 99° (37.1°C), 2006
June 28: 100° (37.7°C), 2008
June 29: 102° (39.1°C), 2008

June record: 102° (39.1°C)
All-time record: 105° (40.8°C)

Portland:
June 26: 102°, 2006
June 27: 98°, 2000
June 28: 100°, 2008
June 29: 97°, 1951

June record: 102°
All-time record: 107°

Seattle:
June 26: 90°, 2006
June 27: 92°, 2015
June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008
June 29: 93°, 1987

June record: 96°
All-time record: 103°

Spokane:
June 26: 100°, 1925
June 27: 102°, 2015
June 28: 105°, 2015
June 29: 98°, 1939

June record: 105°
All-time record: 108°

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. That's an implied 55% increase tied to climate change. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. That's an implied 40% increase tied to climate change. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming.   

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 83% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.1°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +10.54 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.210 today.

On June 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.532 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.207 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.9° (1.9° above normal).

 

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On 6/24/2021 at 5:07 PM, forkyfork said:

it's one op run at day 10. i think the west atlantic ridge keeps the trough far enough west for a humid pattern with storms

the news this summer is going to be the extreme heat in the west.  Whats about to happen in Seattle has NEVER happened in NYC....they could hit 110 degrees?!  Could you ever imagine, Seattle being hotter than NYC, EWR or Philly has EVER been?
  Wow!  I heard that people there are worried that it'll be so hot that birds will start falling out of the sky en masse.  And only one third of the people there have A/C!

Seattle has only hit 100 twice before (2006, 2009) and the highest ever was 103 in 2009.  Neither summer was very hot here, but that's besides the point, beating their former all time record by nearly 10 degrees is going to be amazing!  I heard even areas right at the ocean are going to hit 100!

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A very warm weekend lies ahead. Temperatures could approach or reach 90° in parts of the region on Sunday. The warmth will continue through at least mid-week next week.

In the Pacific Northwest, a historic and potentially unprecedented heatwave began to descend on the region. In response, parts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia saw temperatures soar into the 90s today. A few locations even exceeded 100° including the following sites:

The Dalles, OR: 102°
Ephrata, WA: 100°
Lytton, BC: 102°/38.7°C (old record: 101°/38.2°C)
Omak, WA: 100°

This weekend into early next week could see the most extreme heat parts of that region have ever experienced. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures could be challenged or broken. That includes the Portland and Seattle areas. After Monday, the core of the heat will shift somewhat to the north and east. Readings will remain much above normal in parts of eastern Washington State, Idaho, and eastern British Columbia.

Records for select cities:

Kamloops, BC:
June 26: 102° (38.4°C), 2006
June 27: 99° (37.1°C), 2006
June 28: 100° (37.7°C), 2008
June 29: 102° (39.1°C), 2008

June record: 102° (39.1°C)
All-time record: 105° (40.8°C)

Portland:
June 26: 102°, 2006
June 27: 98°, 2000
June 28: 100°, 2008
June 29: 97°, 1951

June record: 102°
All-time record: 107°

Seattle:
June 26: 90°, 2006
June 27: 92°, 2015
June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008
June 29: 93°, 1987

June record: 96°
All-time record: 103°

Spokane:
June 26: 100°, 1925
June 27: 102°, 2015
June 28: 105°, 2015
June 29: 98°, 1939

June record: 105°
All-time record: 108°

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. That's an implied 55% increase tied to climate change. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. That's an implied 40% increase tied to climate change. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming.   

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 83% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.1°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +10.54 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.210 today.

On June 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.532 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.207 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.9° (1.9° above normal).

 

Don, with Seattle breaking its all time record by almost 10 degrees, I think we have to temper our hot summer hopes because the only two times it ever hit 100 there weren't so hot here (2006, 2009).  If Seattle hits 110 I think it would be the greatest heat record the US has ever seen.

 

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18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Morning clouds will yield to a partly sunny day. It will become somewhat warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 80°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 81°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 84.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.2°

A much warmer weekend lies ahead.

An extreme to perhaps historic heatwave will likely begin to descend on the Pacific Northwest today. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s in Seattle and lower to middle 90s in Portland. It will become much warmer tomorrow throughout the Pacific Northwest. At its height numerous June and perhaps all-time high temperature records will tumble, including at Portland and Seattle.

The kind of summer I dream of, unfortunately we dont get these type of all time extreme temp records in our part of the country anymore.  NYC's record is from 1936.

 

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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is continuing with a recent summer theme. 96-99 for the usual wam spots around our area. But the 100s go north into New England. It will be interesting to see if our area can sneak in a 100° when the WAR begins to flatten and flow becomes more SW to W.

45317BB2-5CF4-4DE3-A295-BE8D42E48529.thumb.png.21dd5c12dc27409edd02a2e98f0d0161.png
B2329118-74F7-4512-9D21-00F08DA770C8.thumb.png.bc48ebb57dcc39a4fa8033d0f4a389e3.png

4FD28D1A-C001-4962-B79F-CDA195C4DBB3.thumb.png.06f068ad1e7a040175f825ebc1fd6c1b.png

I dont know Chris.....if EWR or LGA hit 100 but no one else does, it's not really that impressive, because they hit 100 in more years than they dont.  I'll be impressed when we get the kind of heat Seattle is about to get.  But we dont see those kinds of all time heat records in our part of the country anymore.

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

The kind of summer I dream of, unfortunately we dont get these type of all time extreme temp records in our part of the country anymore.  NYC's record is from 1936.

 

I will call that bluff every single time. Theres no way anyone actually enjoys that type of heat besides Forky

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