Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

June 2021


Stormlover74
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

These long range runs start to lose reliability after about 7 to 10 days. That’s why I mention what needs to happen for a certain outcome. The record heat and ridging out West is closer to the June 2015 to 2020 composite. But the magnitude  of the Western heat and ridging is in a class by itself this June. Notice how much stronger the heat out West and ridging is than the recent June composite. This makes sense given such an extreme drought. So we’ll have to see how the drought feedback influences the ridge pattern as we move into July.

66E1652F-048F-4A07-A014-456037A5DEA9.gif.d1f7983a6fc3ba6f066caf20ed6a6d1e.gif
891A76AA-268F-45F6-A0BE-1B5CB14B03D3.png.66b9a08b4b1a3b06d4d7e778615db27a.png

Forecast for more record ridging and heat over the Western US in late June

 


0F2BAD32-D395-4F9C-84A8-0382FDC0B9FF.png.36965a50aaf8f48daf8e85c9f0142de9.png

Did I see that right that Seattle could hit 100 degrees on Saturday?

When was the last time that happened- it must be really rare!

I've also heard that boating is banned on Lake Tahoe because the levels of the lake are so low that trash is showing up that people have been thoughtlessly dumping into the lake over the last few decades!  800 pounds of trash taken out yesterday!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If Seattle can make it to 100°, then it would be a first for June.

 

Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2017 96 0
- 1995 96 0
- 1955 96 0
2 2019 95 0
3 2002 94 0
- 1982 94 0
- 1970 94 0



 

 

wow the top 3 in that list eventually got very hot here too.

1955 and 1995 moreso than 2017 which was more humid than hot but still.....

2002 was very hot for us too.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

More ridiculous amplitude on the 12z Euro. All-time June monthly highs challenged in the PAC NW this weekend as 500 mb heights go 597dm+. Then the WAR flexes early next week to 594 to 597dm. The WAR  builds into the Canadian Maritimes and we  get into a humid SE to S flow. So the +20c 850 mb temperatures go to our north. Similar to what we have been experiencing in recent summers. Dry westerly flow heat has been tough to come by with patterns like this.

9BC2F6F9-F593-476D-9621-21F6D32DE699.thumb.png.8a93941ddbc2f02aafc1f8b125effdbf.png

Yep, it looks like a high DP/Humidity summer for the NYC metro with the hottest temps staying to our north and also west as you mentioned at least for now. So far this month I have had 8 days with temps reaching between 90-95 here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has low 90s for us and mid to upper 90s in Maine.

 

E547CC97-5EFA-48C0-8D1B-B9293C618F40.thumb.png.94dc7c2c979bde8c7e410200f977918c.png
026D2142-CBE0-4F4A-958E-638988169A05.thumb.png.155efb8265b0a074a86bd5795f1c10da.png

 

Crazy how frequent these overshooting heat events are getting. Lots of 88/74 type days ( where I am) coming with that ridge. The ridge seems to flatten by the end of the run so maybe the strongest heat shifts south by then. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NYC has not had a temperature below 60 in July and August since 2013...since 1991 its happened 17 times...only 12 times from 1870 to 1990...the longest streak of no 50's was during the cool summer of 1996...

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2021-06-21
1 102 1996-09-13
2 94 2016-09-16
3 93 1966-09-14
4 91 2010-09-10
5 90 2020-09-13
6 89 2014-09-12
- 89 1993-09-10
8 88 2018-09-08
9 83 2019-09-05
- 83 2017-08-31
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tomorrow and Thursday should feature abundant sunshine, low humidity, and refreshing temperatures. The end of the week and coming weekend will turn warmer. No excessive precipitation appears likely through the weekend.

In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme to possibly historic heatwave could develop starting late this week. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures in cities, including Seattle and Portland, could be challenged or broken.

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 73% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +1.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.182 today.

On June 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.736 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.800 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.6° (1.6° above normal).

 

 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...