Rtd208 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Portions of the NYC metro now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until midnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Love this weather out on the island. Only hit 83, but dews up to 74 today. Feels like the Caribbean. Give me this all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Parts of the region again saw the temperature reach or exceed 90°. The heat will now depart through the remainder of the week. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and noticeably cooler. Showers and thundershowers are likely. Wednesday and Thursday should feature abundant sunshine, low humidity, and refreshing temperatures. The end of the week and coming weekend could be unsettled. In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 70% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -13.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.361 today. On June 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.809 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.068 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.5° (1.5° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 6/21 EWR: 92 New Brnswck: 90 PHL: 89 TEB: 88 TTN: 87 LGA: 87 BLM: 86 NYC: 86 ACY: 85 JFK: 81 ISP: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Topped out at 79 here, DP made it feel a bit hotter than that however. Call me weird but I love the combination of this thick humid air + a nice breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 No rain here in 13 days. The rain dissipated before reaching Long Island...What do you think caused that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 9 hours ago, forkyfork said: this reminds me of july 2013 Maybe not as hot, JFK actually hit 100 in July 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 1 hour ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said: No rain here in 13 days. The rain dissipated before reaching Long Island...What do you think caused that? I dont mind rain but glad we didnt get the damaging storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 8 hours ago, bluewave said: The EPS keeps the major heat in the Pacific NW and Upper Rockies through July 4th. Very impressive ridging in the 594 to 600 dm range for those areas. We would need the WAR to retrograde in July to tap some of that major heat for our area. 21 Jun to 28 Jun 28 Jun to 5 Jul Looks like chances for major heat are low before July 15th for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 8 hours ago, Rtd208 said: We had a 6 day heatwave with temps ranging anywhere from the low to upper 90's around mid month. The high temperature for the month topped out at 97 in NYC which probably means places just to the west over NE NJ topped out a bit hotter then that. JFK hit 100 in July 2013. NYC undermeasured as usual. It was our last 100 reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 On 6/20/2021 at 7:25 AM, bluewave said: We’ll need the WAR to retrograde back to the Plains or Rockies to have a shot at some westerly flow on the warmest days. Looks like the rest of June is a higher dew point southerly flow pattern. So 90s on the warmest of days rather than 100°. While places like like LGA have snuck in a few 100°s in recent years, the onshore flow has reduced our 100° potential. Newark just set the record for going 7 years with no 100° days. The previous record was 6 years from 1967 to 1972. But that was a cooler summer pattern. Notice how many more 90° days Newark has had during this stretch since 2013. So it has been a hot and humid summer pattern with high numbers of 90° days. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 2892 2021-06-19 2 2602 1973-08-27 3 2176 1943-06-24 4 1473 1948-08-25 5 1462 1963-06-30 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Mean 0 0 0 0 2 4 12 8 3 0 0 0 29 2020 0 0 0 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 0 0 31 2019 0 0 0 0 1 4 14 4 3 1 0 0 27 2018 0 0 0 0 4 5 9 14 4 0 0 0 36 2017 0 0 0 0 3 5 9 2 3 0 0 0 22 2016 0 0 0 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 0 0 40 2015 0 0 0 0 2 4 11 13 5 0 0 0 35 2014 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 2 3 0 0 0 15 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual Mean 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 6 2 0 0 0 18 1972 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 4 1 0 0 0 21 1971 0 0 0 0 0 6 7 7 2 0 0 0 22 1970 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 8 5 0 0 0 22 1969 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 6 1 0 0 0 15 1968 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 9 1 0 0 0 23 1967 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 7 This looks more like the kind of pattern that brings TC up the coast rather than gets 100 degree temps to the coast. In years where we had TC strikes in the same year that we had 100 degree temps (notably years like 1944, 1999, 2011, 2012), the TC strikes occurred after the main summer heat was over (late August through October.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjr Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 15 hours ago, bluewave said: This higher humidity is part of our shift to a humid subtropical climate. 60-80 days a year with 70° dew points used to be normal for the Delmarva to Southern NJ. Now it has moved up to the NYC area. Very interesting research. I have always considered the C-D boundary to extend from St. Louis to NYC, roughly following the Ohio river. Amazing how changes of a fraction of a degree can put you in a completely different climate zone. I guess the line has to be drawn somewhere, though. When I looked at the Britannica article, though, it struck me that on the map, the Eastern seaboard of the US could not be based on a 26.6F demarcation. I dug a little deeper and it turns out that the map is based on a 2007 revision which does, in fact, use 32.0F. Thanks for sharing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 15 hours ago, bluewave said: This higher humidity is part of our shift to a humid subtropical climate. 60-80 days a year with 70° dew points used to be normal for the Delmarva to Southern NJ. Now it has moved up to the NYC area. I wouldn't mind if we started using the oceans for our water supply. 70% of the earth being covered by water is entirely too much. We'd have a much better climate if we could get it down to 50% or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 16 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said: That’s the reason why I despise the summer and relish the cold and snow of winter. Thus my avatar and name. Blame it on too much of the earth being covered by oceans. We need to start using that water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 16 hours ago, jfklganyc said: I don’t want to read one complain about it!! hahaha I like my heat with very low humidity too. Water vapor is nothing but an air pollutant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(67/84) or Normal. Month to date is 73.3[+2.6]. Should be about 73.9[+1.9] by the 30th. T's will retrograde today and be under 60* by sunset. Rain chances from Noon to 5pm. 71*(97%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds. 77* by 11am. 66* by 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 71 here as of 6AM. DP still high @ 66% P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy and it will turn noticeably cooler. Showers and thundershowers are likely. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most places this morning before falling sharply during the afternoon and evening hours. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 78° Philadelphia: 76° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.7°; 15-Year: 81.6° Newark: 30-Year: 84.0°; 15-Year: 84.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 85.4° Tomorrow will be fair and pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 78 and sunny but that will be short lived as clouds and rain move in over the next couple of hours. Cold front clear out and we setup a gorgeous couple of days Wed (6/23) and Thu (6/24) sunny dry and mid to upper 70s. The season of the Western Atlantic Ridge. ECM emphatic of westward expanding ridge pushing up a south/southwest flow and higher heights in the Fri 6/26 - early Jul. Warming 850s should offer the chance at 90 or low 90s and high humidity 6/28 - early July. Rockies ridge and heat factory is rolling and pieces of that heat can get connected with the Western Atlantic Ridge as we head into July. With the humidity and ridge pushing along the EC, storms will fire similar to a Miami-style pattern and front hung up west of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 17 hours ago, forkyfork said: this reminds me of july 2013 Jul 14 - Jul 21 , 2013 saw 7 days of mid 90s - low 100s in the area. That expansion saw the ridge push to 600DCM into the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Rain forest out here, 84/72. Steamy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Jul 14 - Jul 21 , 2013 saw 7 days of mid 90s - low 100s in the area. That expansion saw the ridge push to 600DCM into the area. one of the hottest stretches here in recent memory-then the rubberband snapped and late July and Aug were cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 Front has pushed through. 72 and breezy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Jul 14 - Jul 21 , 2013 saw 7 days of mid 90s - low 100s in the area. That expansion saw the ridge push to 600DCM into the area.I remember roasting at the all star game festivities at Citi Field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Front has pushed through. 72 and breezy Yup, down to 68 here now with a dew of 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Muggy 80 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Getting better here not as humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Definitely feels less humid in the last hour. I’ve stopped sweating while working lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 days are getting shorter that's when you know the end of summer is just around the corner.. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: days are getting shorter that's when you know the end of summer is just around the corner.. Temps can get into the 80s in October and the highest daily temp averages are in late July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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