June 2021

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, nycwinter said:

beautiful day if only the sun was not to bright it would be perfect..

not too bright? you want it to be a red dwarf lol?

or are you rooting for an eclipse that lasts all day

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that was the first summer with such high dew points and heat indices.

it's like 1983 was a warning shot for our hot humid summers and 1977-78 was a warning shot for our snowy but not very cold winters lol

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that was the first summer with such high dew points and heat indices.

wow 1999 and 2011 are on that highest heat index list a lot too.  Impressive that they calculate it to hundredths of a degree lol.  Most of the days on the first graph had highs at or above 100.

Interesting that none of those highest dew point days on the second graph had a high temp at or above 100?

 

[SnoSki14]

Some rare 40s this morning. Got down to 48F or something that we may not see again until late August or September.

[the_other_guy]

52F at 630am

 

This weather is a gift!

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 76degs.(66/85), or +2.5.

Month to is  72.8[+2.9].       Should be about 73.8[+2.6] by the 25th.

June 18-22 near HW criteria.

EURO with 3" 10 days from now----GFS with same system lagging by two days, and little rain when it does get here.

62*(40%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.         70* by Noon.

[dave0176]

54 in New Brunswick at 7AM

[uncle W]

53 this morning here...

[lee59]

51 degree low here this morning

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly sunny and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 83°

Philadelphia: 79°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 80.3°; 15-Year: 80.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.8°; 15-Year: 84.0°

A warming trend will begin tomorrow ahead of a very warm weekend.

Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. Phoenix will likely see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record today.

Daily Records for June 17:

Phoenix: 114°, 1896 and 2015 (Forecast: 115° to 119°) 

Tucson: 109°, 1917, 1985, 1989, 2008, and 2015 (Forecast: 110° to 114°)

*-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

[wdrag]

Continue to monitor Trop system for infusion qpf into NYC subforum Tuesday - if it misses southeast of us,  then it looks rather dry to me the rest of June, despite few cfp severe weather threats.  
 

I like the Great Lakes  trough developing early next week to draw some of the tropical moisture up here for 12 hours but do realize this could still track south of us.    Have a day. Walt

[FPizz]

47 this morning, beautiful

[the_other_guy]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The most extreme June heat is going west of us this month. Just like the record cold missed us back in February. Very unusual for no 100° heat to make it to our area with the all-time record warmth to our west. While it looks like we will warm back to the low 90s this coming weekend, it’s a toned down version of what has been happening out West. So no temperatures in the forecast to challenge the 97° at Newark during the first week of June. It’s pretty unusual for the June monthly high to happen during the first week.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&csector=conus&var=avgt&p=month&year=2021&month=6&sdate=2021%2F05%2F20&edate=2021%2F06%2F17&cmap=BrBG&cmap_r=on&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

Also, the extreme drought rockies-westward that we didnt experience this winter.

Snowfall was way off, where our snowfall and rainfall hasnt been. Sets up a crisis situation out west

 

 

 

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The most extreme June heat is going west of us this month. Just like the record cold missed us back in February. Very unusual for no 100° heat to make it to our area with the all-time record warmth to our west. While it looks like we will warm back to the low 90s this coming weekend, it’s a toned down version of what has been happening out West. So no temperatures in the forecast to challenge the 97° at Newark during the first week of June. It’s pretty unusual for the June monthly high to happen during the first week.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&csector=conus&var=avgt&p=month&year=2021&month=6&sdate=2021%2F05%2F20&edate=2021%2F06%2F17&cmap=BrBG&cmap_r=on&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

to bad records don't go back to 1936 in dallas...it probably was just as extreme...

[Brian5671]

Euro bone dry through the next 7-10 days (except well N and W)

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Also, the extreme drought rockies-westward that we didnt experience this winter.

Snowfall was way off, where our snowfall and rainfall hasnt been. Sets up a crisis situation out west

 

 

 

Yeah, the warming and drying trend out West is pretty extreme. 

 

[lee59]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the warming and drying trend out West is pretty extreme. 

 

That drier and hotter conditions will make any fires burn worse. What has to happen is people stop setting them. In the past it was thunderstorms now with so many people out there the fires are just rampant with the added fuel of people.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, lee59 said:

That drier and hotter conditions will make any fires burn worse. What has to happen is people stop setting them. In the past it was thunderstorms now with so many people out there the fires are just rampant with the added fuel of people.

There are always going to be sparks that can start wildfires. But with the historic dry conditions, they are growing to record proportions. That’s really the main problem. 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

There are always going to be sparks that can start wildfires. But with the historic dry conditions, they are growing to record proportions. That’s really the main problem. 

I agree with you that climate change of drier and hotter in that region is making those fires bigger and worse. However, I believe, the bigger problem is the people setting them. Sparks don't just happen, I would say most sparks are from people. Campfires, cigarette butts, electric pole wires, etc. I'm with you bluewave on the fires worse because of climate change but I still believe most of those fires would never exist if it wasn't for people.

[uncle W]

lets not forget the dust bowl in the 1930's...that was a drought...many wild fires went un noticed because no one lived there...

[donsutherland1]

A warming trend will develop starting tomorrow as some of the heat baking the Southwest begins to move into the region. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region during the weekend.

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

Blythe, CA: 119° (old record: 116°, 2015)
Bullhead City, AZ: 120° (old record: 117°, 2008)
Casper: 94°
Death Valley, CA: 128° (old record: 122°, 1917) ***tied June record***
Denver: 100° (old record: 98°, 2012) ***3rd consecutive 100° day***
Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1940)
Las Vegas: 114° (old record: 113°, 1940)
Needles: 120° (tied record set in 1917)
Palm Springs: 123° (old record: 116°, 1961) ***new June record; tied all-time record***
Phoenix: 118° (old record: 114°, 1896 and 2015)
Sacramento: 107° (old record: 103°, 1963)
Tucson: 112° (old record: 109°, 1917, 1985, 1989, 2008, and 2015)

At Phoenix, the temperature hit 118°. That is the earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The previous record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature also reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

At Tucson, the temperature reached 110° or above for the sixth consecutive day. That tied June 24-29, 1994 for the longest streak on record. Records go back to September 1894. Today was also the sixth consecutive record high temperature at Tucson.

The Tucson NWS office reported that the temperature reached 100° at Tucson at 8:14 am MST. That is the second earliest such reading, behind June 20, 2017 when the temperature reached 100° at 8:02 am.  

The extreme heat will continue into the weekend. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix during this time. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 18-19 period are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015
June 19: 118°, 2016 and 2017

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 18: 88°, 2008
June 19: 86°, 1958 and 1959

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +9.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.921 today.

On June 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.344 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.286 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

 

[Stormlover74]

Down to 66 already. Last cool comfortable night until September?

[uncle W]

33 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Down to 66 already. Last cool comfortable night until September?

NYC hardly ever gets below 60 in July and August...growing up in the 1960's the city routinely saw temps in the 50's in July and August...there were some exceptions...in todays world NYC rarely gets below the low 60's in July and August but there are exceptions...

[doncat]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Down to 66 already. Last cool comfortable night until September?

Mid next week looks nice.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC hardly ever gets below 60 in July and August...growing up in the 1960's the city routinely saw temps in the 50's in July and August...there were some exceptions...in todays world NYC rarely gets below the low 60's in July and August but there are exceptions...

the first year I ever saw the Perseids was the best year ever for them.....August 1986, weren't we down in the lower 50s with crystal clear skies?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A warming trend will develop starting tomorrow as some of the heat baking the Southwest begins to move into the region. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region during the weekend.

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

Blythe, CA: 119° (old record: 116°, 2015)
Bullhead City, AZ: 120° (old record: 117°, 2008)
Casper: 94°
Death Valley, CA: 128° (old record: 122°, 1917) ***tied June record***
Denver: 100° (old record: 98°, 2012) ***3rd consecutive 100° day***
Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1940)
Las Vegas: 114° (old record: 113°, 1940)
Needles: 120° (tied record set in 1917)
Palm Springs: 123° (old record: 116°, 1961) ***new June record; tied all-time record***
Phoenix: 118° (old record: 114°, 1896 and 2015)
Sacramento: 107° (old record: 103°, 1963)
Tucson: 112° (old record: 109°, 1917, 1985, 1989, 2008, and 2015)

At Phoenix, the temperature hit 118°. That is the earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The previous record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature also reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

At Tucson, the temperature reached 110° or above for the sixth consecutive day. That tied June 24-29, 1994 for the longest streak on record. Records go back to September 1894. Today was also the sixth consecutive record high temperature at Tucson.

The Tucson NWS office reported that the temperature reached 100° at Tucson at 8:14 am MST. That is the second earliest such reading, behind June 20, 2017 when the temperature reached 100° at 8:02 am.  

The extreme heat will continue into the weekend. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix during this time. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 18-19 period are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015
June 19: 118°, 2016 and 2017

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 18: 88°, 2008
June 19: 86°, 1958 and 1959

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +9.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.921 today.

On June 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.344 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.286 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

 

wow 128 and 123 for Death Valley and Palm Springs?!  Do you think this is the peak of the heat or could it possibly get even hotter in those places?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, uncle W said:

lets not forget the dust bowl in the 1930's...that was a drought...many wild fires went un noticed because no one lived there...

and bad farming practices, and we also have some really bad farming practices going on right now.

Regenerative farming needs to be adopted everywhere

 

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

The most extreme June heat is going west of us this month. Just like the record cold missed us back in February. Very unusual for no 100° heat to make it to our area with the all-time record warmth to our west. While it looks like we will warm back to the low 90s this coming weekend, it’s a toned down version of what has been happening out West. So no temperatures in the forecast to challenge the 97° at Newark during the first week of June. It’s pretty unusual for the June monthly high to happen during the first week.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&csector=conus&var=avgt&p=month&year=2021&month=6&sdate=2021%2F05%2F20&edate=2021%2F06%2F17&cmap=BrBG&cmap_r=on&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

I'm starting to think we wont see 100 in our area this summer.

Maybe upper 90s like the last few years.

Do you have any early forecasts for the first half of July?

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(65/85), or about +1.0.

Month to date is  72.5[+2.4].          Should be about  73.3[+2.3] by the 26th.

64*(60%RH) here at  6am., m. clear.           73* by Noon.

[uncle W]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the first year I ever saw the Perseids was the best year ever for them.....August 1986, weren't we down in the lower 50s with crystal clear skies?

 

the end of August 1986 had a cool down that saw temps drop to 50 in NYC (tied for the coolest Aug Temp) and 40's elsewhere...1965, 1976 and 1982 also had temps drop to 50 in the city...all developing el nino years...