June 2021

[winterwx21]

What happened to the Cod Nexrad radar? It hasn't been updating since June 11th. I switched to Cod Nexrad after the NWS changed to that terrible new radar on weather.gov that takes forever to load and is very difficult to use. Cod Nexrad was an excellent replacement for me, but now that it isn't working I can't find any other radar I like. Anyone have a good one? Hopefully Cod Nexrad will be back working soon, but if not I'd like to find another good radar.

[Cyg]

30 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

What happened to the Cod Nexrad radar? It hasn't been updating since June 11th. I switched to Cod Nexrad after the NWS changed to that terrible new radar on weather.gov that takes forever to load and is very difficult to use. Cod Nexrad was an excellent replacement for me, but now that it isn't working I can't find any other radar I like. Anyone have a good one? Hopefully Cod Nexrad will be back working soon, but if not I'd like to find another good radar.

Check the other radar sites on COD, they're up to date. KDIX has been down for like 3 days now.

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, lee59 said:

The population of Arizona and Nevada has gone up by some 60% since 2000. That has a big effect on water consumption. . Putting California in the mix and there population has gone up by some 6 million since 2000. Reading the article you showed, I am glad to see how they are conserving much more water now, they will have to continue to do this with potential droughts and more people. Also further down in the article it mentioned less water taken from the Colorado river because more snow melt water was available from up north. It is not a good combination when we choose to live in areas that are extremely dry to begin with and prone to fires. It's like living on the coast and dealing with ocean storms.

The major trend over the  years has been a migration of our population to places which have been subject to a record number of billion dollar weather and climate disasters. The West has been drying out with an record amount wild fire damages. The big population increase in Texas has been hammered by record flooding and hurricane damages with storms like Harvey. Florida has had a double whammy of sea level rise and billion dollar hurricane damages. So now their residents are seeing steep property insurance increases. The same goes for fire prone areas of the West. My guess is that the coming years will see a reverse migration away from these areas. Property insurance increases will price residents out of those markets. So they will look for areas of the country that don’t see as many billion dollar events. The future of population growth may be back to cooler parts fo the country. But such a change may take time since people love living in the Sun Belt.

 

 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The major trend over the  years has been a migration of our population to places which have been subject to a record number of billion dollar weather and climate disasters. The West has been drying out with an record number wild fire damages. The big population increase in Texas has been hammered by record flooding and hurricane damages with storms like Harvey. Florida has had a double whammy of sea level rise and billion dollar hurricane damages. So now their residents are seeing steep property insurance increases. The same goes for fire prone areas of the West. My guess is that the coming years will see a reverse migration away from these areas. Property insurance increases will price residents out of those markets. So they will look for areas of the country that don’t see as many billion dollar events. The future of population growth may be back to cooler parts fo the country. But such a change may take time since people love living in the Sun Belt.

 

 

I believe there is climate change. The thing that bothers me is the alarmist that make it sound like the end. Or the deliberate attempt to make the stats seem one way when they aren't. For example the fires out west. Is climate change playing a part, absolutely. However most every site I go to tells me the vast majority of forest fires are set by people, some say up to 90% So if you really want to make a change in forest fires, stop letting people live in highly prone areas. Of course that won't happen, so I guess better forest management is the best solution. We certainly aren't going to change the climate much in the next few years. Insurance costs are always going to go up, more people in areas that get hit by bad storms and inflation. Don't get me wrong, I am for doing what we can to change any influence we have on the climate, in a reasonable way. Just lets keep our minds open to all possible solutions.

[FPizz]

15 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I believe there is climate change. The thing that bothers me is the alarmist that make it sound like the end. Or the deliberate attempt to make the stats seem one way when they aren't. For example the fires out west. Is climate change playing a part, absolutely. However most every site I go to tells me the vast majority of forest fires are set by people, some say up to 90% So if you really want to make a change in forest fires, stop letting people live in highly prone areas. Of course that won't happen, so I guess better forest management is the best solution. We certainly aren't going to change the climate much in the next few years. Insurance costs are always going to go up, more people in areas that get hit by bad storms and inflation. Don't get me wrong, I am for doing what we can to change any influence we have on the climate, in a reasonable way. Just lets keep our minds open to all possible solutions.

As long as it cheaper to live in those area's, the reward is higher than the risk in many peoples eyes.  What is 200k here vs those places is night and day, and paying higher insurance is worth it to millions of people.  Until that evens out more, I doubt you see a vast migration take place.  

[psv88]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The major trend over the  years has been a migration of our population to places which have been subject to a record number of billion dollar weather and climate disasters. The West has been drying out with an record number wild fire damages. The big population increase in Texas has been hammered by record flooding and hurricane damages with storms like Harvey. Florida has had a double whammy of sea level rise and billion dollar hurricane damages. So now their residents are seeing steep property insurance increases. The same goes for fire prone areas of the West. My guess is that the coming years will see a reverse migration away from these areas. Property insurance increases will price residents out of those markets. So they will look for areas of the country that don’t see as many billion dollar events. The future of population growth may be back to cooler parts fo the country. But such a change may take time since people love living in the Sun Belt.

 

 

People wont be coming back north. Most people would rather wear shorts year round than shovel snow.

[Nibor]

33 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I believe there is climate change. The thing that bothers me is the alarmist that make it sound like the end. Or the deliberate attempt to make the stats seem one way when they aren't. For example the fires out west. Is climate change playing a part, absolutely. However most every site I go to tells me the vast majority of forest fires are set by people, some say up to 90% So if you really want to make a change in forest fires, stop letting people live in highly prone areas. Of course that won't happen, so I guess better forest management is the best solution. We certainly aren't going to change the climate much in the next few years. Insurance costs are always going to go up, more people in areas that get hit by bad storms and inflation. Don't get me wrong, I am for doing what we can to change any influence we have on the climate, in a reasonable way. Just lets keep our minds open to all possible solutions.

Yeah but what’s the point of having a gender reveal party if I can’t have pyrotechnics?

[A Moonlit Sky]

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

People wont be coming back north. Most people would rather wear shorts year round than shovel snow.

I don't know about this. I'm splitting my time in Albany at the moment because I am doing a masters program in urban planning. The field as a whole is talking about the inevitability of a migration northwards. It's not just warmth, but droughts, water restrictions, and extreme weather events. Upstate NY and New England are remarkably well situated for the next century even if the higher end climate scenarios take place--in large part due to the access to large supplies of fresh water.

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, psv88 said:

People wont be coming back north. Most people would rather wear shorts year round than shovel snow.

Many people who have been leaving California relocated to around Boise, Idaho. That is one of the hottest property markets in the country right now. A bunch of Hurricane Maria refugees from Puerto Rico wound up in Buffalo. Past history Is full of examples of people migrating from the tropics to more temperate zones. But this will probably accelerate in coming decades. 
 

Is Idaho prepared for climate refugees from California?

https://www.idahostatesman.com/opinion/readers-opinion/article237278474.html

 

Wildfires in California are igniting more than chaparral and forest. They are firing up additional reasons Californians will seek safer, blackout-free homes in Idaho. 

An Oct. 28 San Francisco Chronicle article sounded an ominous alarm: “fires intensified fears California has become almost too dangerous to inhabit.” This is exceedingly bad news for Idaho.

For our state to remain the place we love, Idahoans should be cheering for California to address its problems lest they soon become our own. We should acknowledge that the entire arid American West shares a common danger, and Idaho is not exempt.

 

 

[A Moonlit Sky]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Many people who have been leaving California relocated to around Boise, Idaho. That is one of the hottest property markets in the country right now. A bunch of Hurricane Maria refugees from Puerto Rico wound up in Buffalo. Past history Is full of examples of people migrating from the tropics to more temperate zones. But this will probably accelerate in coming decades. 

Buffalo is actively planning for a population increase over the next century. They have the advantage of having dormant infrastructure and the ability to grow inside their own municipal boundaries for a while since they used to be a much larger city. They also have the magic bullet for economic growth these days: meds and eds.

[STORMANLI]

.08" so far 

[JustinRP37]

Why do so many of us northerners pretend that sea level rise will not affect our region? New Jersey, NYC, Long Island, etc are all at a major risk for sea level rise. Sure Florida is in big trouble but we can't pretend that our infrastructure is ready for climate change either. After all CT leads the nation power grid disruption with the majors storms we have experienced during the past decade. Lower Manhattan is especially prone to flooding as are the subway tunnels as Hurricane Sandy showed us. Sunny day flooding events are up all along the Jersey shore. Let's also point out that over the past decade the tri-state has had more direct effects from tropical systems than the eastern shore of Florida. All regions have risks from climate change, but I won't bet my life savings on Albany or Buffalo becoming major draws in the next 20-30 years. 

[Dark Star]

At least extreme coastal areas will be affected.  The state, through federal grants, bought my property where my house once stood on Barnegat Bay.  While I don't attribute Sandy to global warming, the coastal water levels will rise.  Luckily I'll be dead by then...

[weathermedic]

Watches up for most of NJ

[A Moonlit Sky]

16 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

At least extreme coastal areas will be affected.  The state, through federal grants, bought my property where my house once stood on Barnegat Bay.  While I don't attribute Sandy to global warming, the coastal water levels will rise.  Luckily I'll be dead by then...

Was that through the Blue Acres program?

[lee59]

I don't want to make lite of the situation but if the water rose a foot over the next 50 years, we have 50 years to build a 2 foot wall. Now if the water was going to rise 10 feet over the next 50 yrs., now the concern is getting serious. I remember Long Island Sound many years ago and to be honest, it doesn't look any different, except a little cleaner. Now I admit I never took any measurements but just saying. By the way, I have read in more than one place that the sea level rise in the Miami area is not just sea level rise but sinking land as well. When the Antarctic starts to melt at a rapid pace, then we have to worry. That is where 90% of the worlds ice is and 70% of the worlds fresh water. As far as Sandy goes, the weather folks were warning us since the 1970s that it was only a matter of time before we got the next big hurricane in our area. The one they always referred as comparison was the 1938 storm. Well if took some 40 years but we finally got it in 2012. That was almost 10 years ago and counting, hopefully for those on the coast the count continues.

[lee59]

I have not gotten any measurable rain here today.

[gravitylover]

~I80 corridor = the new sunbelt

[gravitylover]

17 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

This weather is terrible if you enjoy the beach/pool.  Last weeks weather was far better.

That means the beach or a good pool has to be accessible. Sure there are some nice beaches on the lakes but when it's 90° or more they're just as unpleasant as the backyard. I'll take 75 any day.

[Dark Star]

31 minutes ago, A Moonlit Sky said:

Was that through the Blue Acres program?

No.  Ocean County and the surrounding towns developed their own control programs to help prevent property damage from floods.  The money came from the federal government, but not through Blue Acres.  They bought up quite a few properties in the Good Luck Point area in Bayville which were utterly devastated.  Amazingly, I watched the winds reduce along the Jersey shore before Sandy hit.  Unfortunately, the surge was not affected.

[lee59]

I think the worst time for bad tropical storms in our area was the 1950s thru the early 60s. In 1954 Carol was bad, and Hazel gave NYC its highest ever wind gust over 100mph in the battery area. In 1955 two storms within a week caused possibly the worst flooding in the history of Connecticut and affected the entire area. 1961 hurricane Donna was very bad in the area. So in that 7 year span numerous bad tropical storms caused much devastation in our area.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, lee59 said:

The thing that bothers me is the alarmist that make it sound like the end. Or the deliberate attempt to make the stats seem one way when they aren't

I hear many people mention the term alarmist in regard to climate change. But I see very little alarmism in terms of the actual global response to climate change. Complacency will probably turn out the biggest risk that we face.

[MJO812]

[lee59]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I hear many people mention the term alarmist in regard to climate change. But I see very little alarmism in terms of the actual global response to climate change. Complacency will probably turn out the biggest risk that we face.

That could be.

[HailMan06]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Many people who have been leaving California relocated to around Boise, Idaho. That is one of the hottest property markets in the country right now. A bunch of Hurricane Maria refugees from Puerto Rico wound up in Buffalo. Past history Is full of examples of people migrating from the tropics to more temperate zones. But this will probably accelerate in coming decades. 
 

Is Idaho prepared for climate refugees from California?

https://www.idahostatesman.com/opinion/readers-opinion/article237278474.html

 

Wildfires in California are igniting more than chaparral and forest. They are firing up additional reasons Californians will seek safer, blackout-free homes in Idaho. 

An Oct. 28 San Francisco Chronicle article sounded an ominous alarm: “fires intensified fears California has become almost too dangerous to inhabit.” This is exceedingly bad news for Idaho.

For our state to remain the place we love, Idahoans should be cheering for California to address its problems lest they soon become our own. We should acknowledge that the entire arid American West shares a common danger, and Idaho is not exempt.

 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-up-and-moved-during-the-pandemic-heres-where-they-went-11620734566?reflink=share_mobilewebshare

[the_other_guy]

I’m in Salt Lake City right now.

 

lt is 100°F.. The high is expected to be 103. Tomorrow 105.

For perspective the normal high is 82F

Take a look at any weather app I and go out two weeks. I don’t see one day that is not 15° above normal or more.

 

This is a very scary Ridge. Hope that it does not move east and hope that these people catch a break out here because it is dry as a bone and we are just getting started. This is a tinderbox. Very bad situation out west.

[Snowlover11]

andddd the storms head to my south awesome 

[donsutherland1]

Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight. Tomorrow will be turn partly sunny and seasonably warm. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. Afterward, a warming trend could develop.

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

Billings: 103° (old record: 98°, 1959) ***Hottest so early in the season***
Casper: 99° (old record: 96°, 2018)
Death Valley, CA: 118°
Denver: 98°
Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1974)
Great Falls: 99° (old record: 98°, 1987)
Medicine Hat, AB: 99° (old record: 86°, 2009)
Phoenix: 113° (smoke shrouded the sun at times)
Salt Lake City: 103° (old record: 101°, 1974)
Tucson: 112° (old record: 111°, 1993)

The extreme heat will continue through much of this week. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 15-18 period are posted below.

Record high maximum temperatures:

June 15: 115°, 1974
June 16: 115°, 1974
June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 15: 88°, 1936
June 16: 86°, 1988
June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

This unseasonable heat will extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +16.24 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.513 today.

On June 12 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.976 (RMM). The June 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.449 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above this week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

 

 

[Rtd208]

Currently have a decent storm moving thru, pouring here.

[uncle W]

70 degrees and raining here...